Why was Nashville cracked but not Louisville?
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  Why was Nashville cracked but not Louisville?
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Author Topic: Why was Nashville cracked but not Louisville?  (Read 870 times)
Tekken_Guy
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« on: January 23, 2022, 09:40:19 PM »

Why was Nashville cracked in redistricting but Louisville was not?
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Pink Panther
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« Reply #1 on: January 23, 2022, 09:53:31 PM »

There was pushback by the Congressional Delegation and Establishment Republicans on cracking Louisville, while there wasn't as much of a pushback in Tennessee, also the TNGOP felt more confident than the KYGOP in redistricting this cycle.
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progressive85
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« Reply #2 on: January 23, 2022, 10:11:03 PM »

So that Nashville district (which I believe has existed since the Civil War) is history?  Was the map approved?
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« Reply #3 on: January 24, 2022, 01:10:06 AM »

In the case of KY, there were guidelines for redistricting that were established way back in 1991 which would have ensured that any attempt to crack Louisville would not withstand court challenges against it.
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #4 on: January 24, 2022, 01:11:18 AM »

So that Nashville district (which I believe has existed since the Civil War) is history?  Was the map approved?

It hasn't been officially approved, but so far I'm not seeing large-scale pushback against it.
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Vosem
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« Reply #5 on: January 24, 2022, 12:00:03 PM »

Kentucky has stricter rules about redistricting than Tennessee and more cordial relations between the parties, basically.
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Schiff for Senate
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« Reply #6 on: January 24, 2022, 12:04:16 PM »

Kentucky has stricter rules about redistricting than Tennessee and more cordial relations between the parties, basically.

Yeah, and also, McConnell opposed it strongly (possibly a little because Louisville is his hometown). TNGOP << KYGOP. 1/5 KY House Republicans (only Hal Rogers) voted to object; 7/7 TN House Republicans did.
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lfromnj
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« Reply #7 on: January 24, 2022, 12:10:17 PM »

Very large factor which is underdiscussed is the current TN gerrymander cracks the suburbs with rural areas already  to prevent any rural Democratic comeback in 2012.
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Schiff for Senate
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« Reply #8 on: January 25, 2022, 12:45:58 PM »

Very large factor which is underdiscussed is the current TN gerrymander cracks the suburbs with rural areas already  to prevent any rural Democratic comeback in 2012.

You mean 2022. But yeah, you're possibly right.
TN pre-redistricting has such ugly and terrible maps, considering a much cleaner, fairer map with the same solid 7-2 result could be made (I know incumbent protection made it impossible even if the TNGOP didn't plan to gerrymander, but I really liked the Democratic proposal - it kept the composition the same at 7-2, but made the maps much cleaner, and did create a suburban seat in the Nashville suburbs).
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #9 on: January 25, 2022, 05:04:19 PM »

Very large factor which is underdiscussed is the current TN gerrymander cracks the suburbs with rural areas already  to prevent any rural Democratic comeback in 2012.

You mean 2022. But yeah, you're possibly right.
TN pre-redistricting has such ugly and terrible maps, considering a much cleaner, fairer map with the same solid 7-2 result could be made (I know incumbent protection made it impossible even if the TNGOP didn't plan to gerrymander, but I really liked the Democratic proposal - it kept the composition the same at 7-2, but made the maps much cleaner, and did create a suburban seat in the Nashville suburbs).

No he meant in 2012 the TN GOP were one of the parties that didn't believe the Dixiecrats were dead and used their long-term base in the suburbs to crack rural areas that had previously supported these blue dogs. It is the reason why TN-05 existed for the last 10 years - the GOP had the voters in 2008 to cut it, but the political knowledge at the time did not favor such a move.
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lfromnj
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« Reply #10 on: January 25, 2022, 05:16:46 PM »

Very large factor which is underdiscussed is the current TN gerrymander cracks the suburbs with rural areas already  to prevent any rural Democratic comeback in 2012.

You mean 2022. But yeah, you're possibly right.
TN pre-redistricting has such ugly and terrible maps, considering a much cleaner, fairer map with the same solid 7-2 result could be made (I know incumbent protection made it impossible even if the TNGOP didn't plan to gerrymander, but I really liked the Democratic proposal - it kept the composition the same at 7-2, but made the maps much cleaner, and did create a suburban seat in the Nashville suburbs).

No he meant in 2012 the TN GOP were one of the parties that didn't believe the Dixiecrats were dead and used their long-term base in the suburbs to crack rural areas that had previously supported these blue dogs. It is the reason why TN-05 existed for the last 10 years - the GOP had the voters in 2008 to cut it, but the political knowledge at the time did not favor such a move.

Yup TN redistricting is really interesting. TN 7th from the 2000's is one of the few rare hillarious suburb packs.
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Schiff for Senate
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« Reply #11 on: January 25, 2022, 07:49:41 PM »

Very large factor which is underdiscussed is the current TN gerrymander cracks the suburbs with rural areas already  to prevent any rural Democratic comeback in 2012.

You mean 2022. But yeah, you're possibly right.
TN pre-redistricting has such ugly and terrible maps, considering a much cleaner, fairer map with the same solid 7-2 result could be made (I know incumbent protection made it impossible even if the TNGOP didn't plan to gerrymander, but I really liked the Democratic proposal - it kept the composition the same at 7-2, but made the maps much cleaner, and did create a suburban seat in the Nashville suburbs).

No he meant in 2012 the TN GOP were one of the parties that didn't believe the Dixiecrats were dead and used their long-term base in the suburbs to crack rural areas that had previously supported these blue dogs. It is the reason why TN-05 existed for the last 10 years - the GOP had the voters in 2008 to cut it, but the political knowledge at the time did not favor such a move.

Interesting. Really shows how much rural TN (and the entire white rural south, for that matter) has swung rightward in the past decade or fifteen years or so.
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #12 on: January 26, 2022, 12:09:04 AM »

KY actually has a functioning and very aggressive state D party & has been D-controlled at the state, legislative, and court level for much longer than the R-dominated TN, even as TN usually votes slightly to the left of KY in presidential races. As similar as they may be otherwise, the two states couldn’t be any more different when it comes to this (and I don’t think there is another pair of bordering states where the contrast is this noticeable).
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ProgressiveModerate
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« Reply #13 on: January 29, 2022, 12:17:02 AM »

Firstly, I think there's something in the State Constituion requiring Jefferson County to be kept whole.

Secondly KY's SC is pretty moderate and could overturn a 6-0 map whereas TN's SC leans pretty heavy right

Finally, no one in the Kentucky delegation wanted any part of Louisville whereas in KY there was really only one rep who really wasn't being a team player.
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Calthrina950
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« Reply #14 on: January 30, 2022, 08:11:34 AM »

Very large factor which is underdiscussed is the current TN gerrymander cracks the suburbs with rural areas already  to prevent any rural Democratic comeback in 2012.

You mean 2022. But yeah, you're possibly right.
TN pre-redistricting has such ugly and terrible maps, considering a much cleaner, fairer map with the same solid 7-2 result could be made (I know incumbent protection made it impossible even if the TNGOP didn't plan to gerrymander, but I really liked the Democratic proposal - it kept the composition the same at 7-2, but made the maps much cleaner, and did create a suburban seat in the Nashville suburbs).

No he meant in 2012 the TN GOP were one of the parties that didn't believe the Dixiecrats were dead and used their long-term base in the suburbs to crack rural areas that had previously supported these blue dogs. It is the reason why TN-05 existed for the last 10 years - the GOP had the voters in 2008 to cut it, but the political knowledge at the time did not favor such a move.

Interesting. Really shows how much rural TN (and the entire white rural south, for that matter) has swung rightward in the past decade or fifteen years or so.


I'd agree. It's astonishing that Democrats held the majority of Tennessee's congressional seats as late as 2008, including four districts that were won by John McCain. But now, outside of Nashville, Memphis, Knoxville, and Chattanooga, they are DOA in the state.
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Schiff for Senate
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« Reply #15 on: January 30, 2022, 10:37:41 PM »

Very large factor which is underdiscussed is the current TN gerrymander cracks the suburbs with rural areas already  to prevent any rural Democratic comeback in 2012.

You mean 2022. But yeah, you're possibly right.
TN pre-redistricting has such ugly and terrible maps, considering a much cleaner, fairer map with the same solid 7-2 result could be made (I know incumbent protection made it impossible even if the TNGOP didn't plan to gerrymander, but I really liked the Democratic proposal - it kept the composition the same at 7-2, but made the maps much cleaner, and did create a suburban seat in the Nashville suburbs).

No he meant in 2012 the TN GOP were one of the parties that didn't believe the Dixiecrats were dead and used their long-term base in the suburbs to crack rural areas that had previously supported these blue dogs. It is the reason why TN-05 existed for the last 10 years - the GOP had the voters in 2008 to cut it, but the political knowledge at the time did not favor such a move.

Interesting. Really shows how much rural TN (and the entire white rural south, for that matter) has swung rightward in the past decade or fifteen years or so.


I'd agree. It's astonishing that Democrats held the majority of Tennessee's congressional seats as late as 2008, including four districts that were won by John McCain. But now, outside of Nashville, Memphis, Knoxville, and Chattanooga, they are DOA in the state.

I mean, pre-2010, it was the same story throughout the south -  2010 was a total wipeout for white Southern Democrats. Interesting stats that show this - below, some southern states and the number of Democratic representatives in the 2008 (111th congress) and 2010 (112th congress) elections:

AL: Democrats went from winning 2/7 seats to winning 1/7 (went from 1 to 0 white Democrats)
MS: Democrats went from winning 3/4 seats to winning 1/4 (went from 2 to 0 white Democrats)
LA: Democrats went from winning 2/7 seats to winning 1/7 (went from 1 to 0 white Democrats)
AR: Democrats went from winning 3/4 seats to winning 1/4 (went from 3 to 1 white Democrats)
SC: Democrats went from winning 2/6 seats to winning 1/6 (went from 1 to 0 white Democrats)
MO: Democrats went from winning 4/9 seats to winning 3/9 (went from 2 to 1 white Democrats)
Admittedly, the carnage in TN was much worse -
TN: Democrats went from winning 5/9 seats to winning 2/9 (went from 5 to 2 white Democrats)
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David Hume
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« Reply #16 on: February 01, 2022, 08:59:58 AM »

KY actually has a functioning and very aggressive state D party & has been D-controlled at the state, legislative, and court level for much longer than the R-dominated TN, even as TN usually votes slightly to the left of KY in presidential races. As similar as they may be otherwise, the two states couldn’t be any more different when it comes to this (and I don’t think there is another pair of bordering states where the contrast is this noticeable).
Are you sure? R took over KT senate a few years earlier than TN senate.
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