Agree with this as a prediction -
Trump wins with the 2016 map minus MI and NE 2nd.
(Except I disagree with OSR that NV would flip Republican.)
But obviously, these posts are completely correct as well and I don't think giving an exact map is really possible (though if forced to it would probably be the above results)-
The problem with this is that we don’t know what else would have happened if the pandemic didn’t.
Without the pandemic, the 2020 election is a totally different race &, as a result, an incredibly hard-to-predict one at that.
Calthrina puts it well -
It's hard to say in the end, though I tend to believe Trump winning reelection without the pandemic is a myth. He was already one of the most unpopular presidents in history and had a relatively wide coalition against him. I'm not convinced he would have won otherwise, though for sure I can't rule it out.
Trump came so close to winning reelection even with the pandemic. Without the pandemic, I think he might have actually gotten over the finish line. It would have been close all the same, but Democrats would have had less of a persuasive argument to make to independents. Biden won largely because of moderate and independent voters who didn't think Trump was handling the pandemic appropriately or seriously enough and thought Biden would "right the ship."