Safe R in 2022, Safe D in 2024 (assuming 2024 is a D wave at the House level).
The idea a district can go from safe one party to safe the other in 2 years is asinine.
Some have been that way in the past due to incumbents retiring but this obviously isn't one.
Agreed. Technically ND is both a state and an at-large district, so one could kind of argue ND counts as a 'district' even though it's really a state. Well...looking at senate elections, it was D+37 in 2004 with popular incumbent Democrat Byron Dorgan seeking reelection (every county went blue). In 2006, the next ND senate race, popular incumbent Democrat Kent Conrad won by 39 points (again, every county went blue). 2010, chronologically the next senate election in ND after Safe Blue 2004 and Safe Blue 2006, was the complete and total opposite: Dorgan bowed out, and while Sabato's had called ND safe blue in 2004, it and all others who made forecasts said safe R, as popular Republican governor John Hoeven ran and the outcome was R+54 - a 90-point rightward swing between two senate races 6 years apart (and a 93 point rightward swing between two senate races for different seats in the same state just 4 years apart). Of course, as you said, this is far from the case here. But it's happened before.
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