Kelly is much more skilled at duping gullible Republicans into believing she’s a moderate (see: her recent signing/touting of the vaccination exemption law) than Evers or Whitmer but her state is also >10 points more Republican than Evers's or Whitmer's (while not trending D nearly fast enough to offset this), and she’ll need to outrun the D Senate nominee by at least 25 points. I haven’t seen much reliable (read: not Morning Consult) polling out of KS, but I can buy that Kelly is relatively popular/slightly above 50% right now. There’s a case to be made that having virtually no crossover appeal (Evers, Whitmer) or actively antagonizing the other side (Whitmer) in this environment (in which generic R almost certainly has a healthy lead in WI/MI) is arguably worse than running for reelection as a Democratic governor in KS, especially given the success Republican governors had even in deep blue states in 2018. However, I still think Republicans would have to run an extremely and unusually flawed campaign to lose to Kelly, and there’s still a chance her numbers just outright collapse like Bollier's (or that polls just dramatically overestimate her standing*). Republicans will need to put more effort into defining Kelly, but it’s definitely doable.
*In all fairness, Kelly seems to be closer to 50% than Bollier was, but you get the point.
I have WI and KS as Lean R, MI as Tilt R (but very close to moving this to Lean R). And FTR, I don’t think Brian Kemp is far behind them in terms of vulnerability — his combined odds of winning the primary and GE are, at the very least, below 50/50.
When I read this I thought it's a massive exaggeration, but then I researched on Wikipedia and it turns out Moran is an electoral monster for some reason; he won by 30 points in 2016 and got 70% (so basically 40 points) in 2010. Why do you think this is? (Considering Roger Marshall won by like 10 [that was my estimation; per Wikipedia the margin was more like 12] in 2020 and Pat Roberts won by less than 11 points...in a red year...against an independent.)
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