Not bad for McAuliffe. Emerson didn't overestimate Biden at all in 2020.
If McAuliffe wins by anything less than Northam '17, that's a bad sign for Democrats.
That's not necessarily true, but if McAuliffe only won by 3 points, like this poll suggests, then that would be eerie foreshadowing for Democrats. I think if the margin is more than 5 points they don't really need to worry too much since Youngkin is more popular than Trump in NOVA for obvious reasons, but if it's less, then that's cause for concern.
