NC Swing

[Schiff for Senate]

I noticed something interesting. Despite NC nearly supporting Biden in 2020, it actually didn't shift that hard to the left, particularly compared to nearby states - even WV shifted more to Biden than North Carolina! See these examples:

NC (reference point): 2.3 points
VA: 4.8 points (2.5 points more than NC)
KY: 3.9 points (1.6 points more than NC)
WV: 3.2 points (0.9 points more than NC)
TN: 2.8 points (0.5 points more than NC)
SC: 2.6 points (0.3 points more than NC)
GA: 5.4 points (3.1 points more than NC)

Why is this? Why did NC stay more or less static compared to its neighbours, given suburban growth and liberalization and the cities going even bluer? (Interestingly, NC was also home to one of just 6 Clinton/Trump counties outside Texas, Scotland.)

[Schiff for Senate]

Because it's like Florida used to be...it's a demographic seesaw...it's been almost precisely 6 points right of the nation since the century began.

While the cities are moving D, the rural areas and exurbs are going hard R and aren't maxed out like in Georgia.

Also the 'burbs are only glacially moving D and started off last decade very strongly R.

Maybe it's a powder keg and it all collapses on the GOP like VA/CO did in '08...but I doubt it.

Not entirely true. It took a hard shift to the left in 2008 and didn't really go back to being the red state it was during the Bush years (yes, it still does have an undeniable GOP lean, but it's not nearly as strong as it was in the Bush years). In fact Bill Clinton in '96 underpeformed his wife in 2016. These are NC's presidential results from 1992 to 2020, with the GOP (in 2008 Democratic) margin given:

1992 - R+0.8
1996 - R+4.7
2000 - R+12.8
2004 - R+12.4
2008 - D+0.3
2012 - R+2.0
2016 - R+3.7
2020 - R+1.3

The GOP went from a double-digit win to barely winning the state. It's kind of what happened in Virginia except North Carolina slowly drifted back into lean Republican mode and stayed there (the last time it gave either party a margin greater than 5 points was actually 2004), while Virginia (and for that matter Colorado as well) just continued shifting leftward, particularly in the age of Trump, supported by (sub)urban growth and liberalization and demographic changes.

[Schiff for Senate]

Because it's like Florida used to be...it's a demographic seesaw...it's been almost precisely 6 points right of the nation since the century began.

While the cities are moving D, the rural areas and exurbs are going hard R and aren't maxed out like in Georgia.

Also the 'burbs are only glacially moving D and started off last decade very strongly R.

Maybe it's a powder keg and it all collapses on the GOP like VA/CO did in '08...but I doubt it.

Not entirely true. It took a hard shift to the left in 2008 and didn't really go back to being the red state it was during the Bush years (yes, it still does have an undeniable GOP lean, but it's not nearly as strong as it was in the Bush years). In fact Bill Clinton in '96 underpeformed his wife in 2016. These are NC's presidential results from 1992 to 2020, with the GOP (in 2008 Democratic) margin given:

1992 - R+0.8
1996 - R+4.7
2000 - R+12.8
2004 - R+12.4
2008 - D+0.3
2012 - R+2.0
2016 - R+3.7
2020 - R+1.3

The GOP went from a double-digit win to barely winning the state. It's kind of what happened in Virginia except North Carolina slowly drifted back into lean Republican mode and stayed there (the last time it gave either party a margin greater than 5 points was actually 2004), while Virginia (and for that matter Colorado as well) just continued shifting leftward, particularly in the age of Trump, supported by (sub)urban growth and liberalization and demographic changes.

And this is what these swings actually look like when supplanted to the national vote, which you failed to mention the overall PV went massively Dem after 1992, which has been very unshakeable.

1992: R+ 6.7 [D+ 5.5]
1996: R +13.3 [D+8.5]
2000: R+13.3 [D+ 0.5]
2004: R+ 10.2 [R+2.1]
2008: R+ 6.9 [D+ 7.2]
2012: R+ 5.8 [D+3.8]
2016: R+ 5.8 [D+ 2.1]
2020: R+ 6.2 [D+ 4.4]

Ergo, unless there's some kind of shakeup like Bush Jr and Dole pulled off with evangelicals, the state is just gonna keep balancing out like this.

Florida is the only other state quite so similar, with only 1992, 2020, and 2000 not inside the R+3-4 range.

I agree with you that at this point NC is basically stuck at some type of Lean Republican area and isn't exactly trending one way or another. So NC becoming a blue state, unlike VA, CO and GA, isn't something that will just happen, but I'm guessing it will be a gradual, long-term leftward shift. Right now the only two ways I see NC actually flipping is if the Democrats (Biden and Harris) are extremely popular by 2024, or if Roy Cooper is on the Democratic ticket (he still won reelection as governor by 4.5%).