2024 rematch: Cruz vs O'Rourke

[Schiff for Senate]

Cruz would (unfortunately) win reelection. Yes, TX is trending bluer, and O'Rourke nearly beat him in 2018 - but remember that 2018 was a Democratic wave year and 2024 may not be one, and O'Rourke's probably alienated Texas voters (who I think are the most pro-gun of any state other than Oklahoma and a few rural ones) with his "Hell yes, we're going to take your AR-15" rifle. Now if I lived in Texas I'd certainly vote for O'Rourke - I strongly support gun control (and a ban on some types of guns), and Cruz is one of the worst senators. But the trouble is that Texas voter support guns, and it seems to be a pervasive element of every day life in Texas - it seems that Texans, including Democrats, love to own guns, and several own multiple. The AR-15 comment may have been good to a national Democratic audience, but to pro-gun voters in Texas (who I imagine form a majority), O'Rourke has been permanently alienated, and some moderate suburbanites who support guns (I imagine the majority do) and voted for O'Rourke in 2018 will likely revert to Cruz.