PA-SN 2022 megathread: Shrek vs. The Wizard of Oz

[Schiff for Senate]

Which Senate seat would he be running for?

The national one. I think you misunderstood the thread to mean he's running for the Pennsylvania Senate, but I believe he's running for Toomey's seat in the US Senate.

[Schiff for Senate]

It’s official! My sources were right again.

I think he will announce it on Fox tonight, earlier than expected.

I must say that your sources are quite credible and impressive (and no, I'm not being sarcastic - I'm genuinely surprised).

[Schiff for Senate]

While I'm rooting for Fetterman, it's still unfortunate Tom Wolf isn't a decade younger. Otherwise, he could for the seat and would probably be favored even in a bad midterm environment.

Yeah, Wolf is extremely popular in PA, and I was surpised to see just how popular. I think he'd win by a decent amount even in this purple state even in a red wave. In 2018 he won by 17 points and won PA16 (which went for Trump by 18 points in 2020). If he ran in the 2022 senate race PA16 would most likely still go red but he'd probably win by a good amount.

Fetterman and Lamb will vote the same 99% of the time if they're elected to the Senate, so what really matters is who you think would be a better general election candidate.

I would not be too sure about that lol Lamb voted with Trump 68% of the time during his first term in congress. He takes tons of corporate and special interest money and it has influenced how he's voted on important legislation like the time he voted to gut Banking regulation.
https://twitter.com/kenklippenstein/status/1460262958974611457
 I also don't buy the narrative that Lamb is more electable in 2020 he was significantly outrun by 2 self-described socialists!
https://twitter.com/Fo4Afuture/status/1471304680894615553
What matters is electing a senator beholden to people and not special interests.

This is genuinely shocking. I knew Lamb has voted with the GOP on some things, but 68%? That's about on par with Collins and Murkowski, unless I'm wrong.

Electability arguments one way or the other are stupid and circular. It is the least salient argument to make that one candidate hypothetically would do better than another one in the general. We saw this play out in large scale elections like Trump in 16, the Democratic primaries in 20, and in smaller scale elections like ME-Sen in 20. It's nonsensical to make this argument.

Primaries, as far as I'm concerned, should strictly be about ideology. If a candidate can win a majority or plurality of Democrats in a state like PA, all Democrats in PA should be willing to get behind them in the general. Anything beyond that is mere speculation. Vote for the candidate who aligns with your values and then push to get the Democratic nominee elected in November. It's that simple. Yes, from an ideological standpoint, I would not vote for Conor Lamb in the primary. Kenyatta, Fetterman, even Arkoosh align with my values more than he does. But Lamb aligns with my values significantly more than Oz, McCormick, Bartos, or whatever clown wins the GOP nomination would.

All the same, you shouldn't delude yourself that all candidates are equally electable. For instance (and I know WV isn't PA, I'm just making a general point), Joe Manchin is in many ways a DINO and faced a primary challenge from a left-wing Democrat in 2018, and won. If you voted from an ideological standpoint, you would likely support that left-wing Democrat (Paula Jean Swearengin). However, this would run quite obviously counter to the bigger goal of making sure someone who you at least partially agree with (i.e., a Democrat) wins, since Manchin still won the race by 3 and Swearengin lost by some 40 points two years later when she got nominated. Of course PA is much, much, much bluer than WV. But the point is, look for ideological purity within the bounds of electability. Personally I don't think Lamb is necessarily much more electable than people like Kenyetta and Fetterman. In fact, that brings me to my next point: Fetterman and Kenyetta are about equally liberal/progressive, except (I think) Fetterman's much likelier to win. So, unless you perceive some massive difference between the two candidates, you should also consider electability. Ideology is important, but electability should hardly be ignored. Not all candidates are equal, and in some cases (NOT that this is necessarily one of them, since PA is swingy and elects enough liberal Democrats), you need to sacrifice your ideology for the greater good. I mean, right-wing Republicans in ME who voted to primary Collins in 2020 would probably be going against their own interest (i.e., a Republican winning), since only Collins can win as far as Republicans go. So, while it doesn't apply much to PA, this is the wrong takeaway, since electability is an important factor to consider, and should be far from exclusively pertaining to ideology, if the goal is getting someone who agrees with you on a healthy percentage of issues.

[Schiff for Senate]

Oh, in case it wasn't clear, I'm supporting Fetterman for the win.

Lamb is a weak, fake moderate whose schtick everybody can see through. He is uncharismatic and has few (if any!) real views. He is the Kyrsten Sinema of PA and has literally zero crossover appeal because of it (it only hurts him with the Democrats who see through his shapeshifting views on policy and his being akin to a chameleon). On the other hand, objectively, Fetterman is more liberal/progressive and he's actually got views, and charisma. I know who the better candidate is and clearly, so does PA. I like real moderates - not politicians without principles, which is the category Lamb falls into. And lastly, I think Fetterman's a much better candidate with a much better chance at victory - I could see him actually doing better in rural areas where his earnestness and progressive populism is regarded more highly than Lamb's fake moderatism and his being a lapdog of neoliberalism and corporatism. It comes to me as no surprise that Fetterman's winning big - hopefully he keeps the lead - and it annoys me that a single Democrat seriously supports Lamb over Fetterman. They are DINOs (stupid DINOs at that) who, ironically/fittingly, are close to being extinct (and are an endangered species). I detest Lamb's shapeshifting of views for political expediency so much I would probably support McCormick over him (because McCormick at least has some consistent beliefs) in the general if it came to that.

Lamb is a WEAK chameleon.
Fetterman is STRONG and has a record of actually winning (and, perhaps importantly, also a record of actually having views on policy that don't always change depending on which way the wind is blowing for him).

b.) Citation that he'd be a stronger candidate than Fetterman? Fetterman actually has a solid record of winning statewide and a statewide profile. And you don't do well simply by being 'moderate' (especially not if you're very obviously not a genuine moderate and just an unprincipled career politician with views that change depending on which way the wind is blowing) - you also need to have charisma. Conor Lamb is very clearly an 'establishment' career politican and chameleon who will logically have less appeal in rurals than would the more charismatic, economically progressive, and populist Fetterman. And if you want other reasons as to why Chameleon Conor would be weaker in the general than Fetterman, just think of the attack ads by Oz/McCormick that would slam Chameleon Conor for being a chameleon with shapeshifting views and no principles (and they'd have a point). Also, the base will be a lot less excited to turn out for a guy like Lamb than they would be for Fetterman.

So...Fetterman is more liberal (and consistently liberal), is more popular with the base and can drive higher turnout, and might even do better than Chameleon Conor in the rurals. I don't understand how there can even be a question (let alone thinking Lamb is the answer to any question other than 'Which candidate is objectively worse?').

[Schiff for Senate]

Time to move this race to Safe R?
https://twitter.com/medriva/status/1513579838342377473?s=21

Fetterman, Lamb and Kenyatta(I know he probably won't win but just in case) need to denounce ASAP

No, they need to avoid coming out for or against this. They can just keep quiet and focus on campaigning. Now if they're asked point blank if they are for or against this, they might want to cautiously come out against it.

[Schiff for Senate]

https://twitter.com/tify330/status/1519492477467738115
Kenyatta is such a better debater than Fetterman, it's not even funny.

Bush W and Trump were lousy debators and still best Kerry and Hillary, Fetterman is doing well in polls because Obama whom endorsed Barnes in 2018 and WARNOCK in 2020 doesn't endorse Keynetta because he is gay that's why Keynetta is doing poorly in poll

Obama's not endorsing Kenyatta because he's gay??

[Schiff for Senate]

https://twitter.com/tify330/status/1519492477467738115
Kenyatta is such a better debater than Fetterman, it's not even funny.

I agree that Fetterman's performance in both of these was bad (he sounded so nervous and guilty) and that Kenyatta bested him. But Fetterman will still win the nomination - all this is doing is making him a weaker candidate in the general and making it slightly easier for the GOP to win the general. It's time for Kenyatta to stop.

[Schiff for Senate]

Final bets anyone?

I think Barnett squeaks in out by less than a percent against Oz

Oz manages to win, but by like 1 point. Barnette finishes a narrow second, and McCormick finishes right behind her.

https://twitter.com/ryangrim/status/1526359233121370112?t=z7v4RpLD033X5KADeqxlNA...

Absolutely classless, alarming stuff from the Lamb campaign and his Twitter surrogates. When Fetterman had his stroke you had a prominent pro-Lamb post celebrating it and wishing he didn't recover.

Not called for. I get desperate times call for desperate measures but the Lamb worker who messaged this ought to have realized this would backfire. So, while I don't entirely blame him for doing it, dumb move from a strategic perspective, since this will actually hurt Lamb a little bit. Anyway, primary is Safe Fetterman.

[Schiff for Senate]

https://twitter.com/ryangrim/status/1526359233121370112?t=z7v4RpLD033X5KADeqxlNA...
Absolutely classless, alarming stuff from the Lamb campaign and his Twitter surrogates. When Fetterman had his stroke you had a prominent pro-Lamb post celebrating it and wishing he didn't recover.

I had an experience similar to this last night. I got a text from the Lamb camp, replied with my support for Fetterman and got back (and I quote) "Has John been discharged from the hospital yet? What kind of medications and physical therapy does he need post-stroke?"

Not quite as transparent, but it's pretty clear what they're trying to do.

Wow. So clearly - dumb a move as it is - this is a coordinated effort by Lamb's campaign. How moronic (not to say classless).

I don't know, maybe it's just me, but the message sent in the Tweet seems less outrageous/classless than the one you received. The other one still is just helping raise awareness about Fetterman's stroke and hospitalization and doesn't really comment further than that. In this one, the implication is clear and it is a very classless move. Hoping now more than before that Fetterman recovers and wins primary (obviously) and GE (which will not be easy but which is hardly impossible).

My final prediction is that Barnette wins narrowly, but I hope McCormick wins, I doubt the GE is winnable in this environment and Fetterman doesn't strike me as a particularly strong candidate, so I'd rather the least insane Republican win.

I think Oz still wins, but narrowly. McCormick would be the best senator of the three. And I hope Barnette gets the nomination because she gives Fetterman the greatest chance at winning in the GE. PA is still a Biden state, Fetterman is a good candidate, and candidate quality matters, so having a deranged January 6 attendee as his opponent can only help him. I'm expecting (hoping?) her to make some gaffes and shoot herself in the mouth, which would make it easier for Fetterman to win.

[Schiff for Senate]

Final predictions:

1. Oz
[GAP OF ABOUT 1 POINT]
2. Barnette
[GAP OF ABOUT 2 POINTS]
3. McCormick

For the Democrats, Fetterman bests Lamb by 12.

[Schiff for Senate]

But with Arizona, Masters can at the very least act like a normal person. The stuff he says is dangerous, but he doesn't embarrass himself.

Agreed. Walker is just an utter joke of a candidate - and it's entertaining to watch him founder - Mastriano is far-right, but importantly he's very vocal about it, thus making him an anathema to Biden voters, moderates and swing voters, and dooming him; and Mastriano is the DeathSantis 2.0: the guy who talks smooth, occasionally dropping hints of how crazy he is but mostly keeping himself together, but who if elected plans to turn a purple state into a hellhole.

[Schiff for Senate]

Fetterman is running with it, so I assume they believe it to be legitimate or else I'd imagine they wouldn't touch it. They stayed away when it was just Twitter rumors.

https://twitter.com/JohnFetterman/status/1577010449811267585

Politics aside, killing puppies is just absolutely despicable, and I think people all over the political spectrum can agree on that. Oz is a sick man for doing this (though more details, and a more detailed explanation, would be appreciated) and should be charged appropriately.

[Schiff for Senate]

Yeah, I looked at some of the article, and this is just...horrible. Truly outrageous and sickening, and anybody who owns a dog (and I suspect enough Pennsylvania Republicans do), or even cares remotely about them, should feel the same way. Oz is a horrible man, and there should be criminal charges (this apparently did violate the Animal Welfare Act, after all).