By 2028, will the 13 original states going to be Safe Ds? (user search)
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  By 2028, will the 13 original states going to be Safe Ds? (search mode)
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Author Topic: By 2028, will the 13 original states going to be Safe Ds?  (Read 1853 times)
Schiff for Senate
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« on: August 05, 2021, 06:05:28 PM »

No, and there's a simple explanation -

  Colonial VA included what's now WV and KY, both of which are solidly Republican states. I don't see them going blue any time soon. It would be progress for Kentucky Democrats if, somehow, the GOP could somehow get even under 60% of the vote. Winning outright is impossible at the presidential level (though the governor's still a Democrat). And WV is just a hugely Republican state at this point; it would be cause for concern for the GOP if they got less than 65% or so there.

 In reality, the 13 'colonies' today includes the 13 same-named states, as well as Vermont - then disputed between NH and NY; Maine - then part of MA; Kentucky and West Virginia - then part of VA; Tennessee - then part of NC; Mississippi and Alabama - then part of Georgia. SC's really the only safely Republican colony of the 13 states (and that's not going to change by 2028 - maybe the margin for the GOP decreases slightly, but the state voting blue is, for the time being, out of the question) that share their names with colonies, but if we're including all states that were part of Colonial America (as part of another colony), then I should add that MS, AL and TN (as well as the aforementioned states of KY and WV) are also solidly red.
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Schiff for Senate
CentristRepublican
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,341
United States


« Reply #1 on: August 05, 2021, 06:28:28 PM »

No, and there's a simple explanation -

  Colonial VA included what's now WV and KY, both of which are solidly Republican states. I don't see them going blue any time soon. It would be progress for Kentucky Democrats if, somehow, the GOP could somehow get even under 60% of the vote. Winning outright is impossible at the presidential level (though the governor's still a Democrat). And WV is just a hugely Republican state at this point; it would be cause for concern for the GOP if they got less than 65% or so there.

 In reality, the 13 'colonies' today includes the 13 same-named states, as well as Vermont - then disputed between NH and NY; Maine - then part of MA; Kentucky and West Virginia - then part of VA; Tennessee - then part of NC; Mississippi and Alabama - then part of Georgia. SC's really the only safely Republican colony of the 13 states (and that's not going to change by 2028 - maybe the margin for the GOP decreases slightly, but the state voting blue is, for the time being, out of the question) that share their names with colonies, but if we're including all states that were part of Colonial America (as part of another colony), then I should add that MS, AL and TN (as well as the aforementioned states of KY and WV) are also solidly red.

Pretty sure he was just talking about the first 13 states as they exist today not how they existed back in the colonial days.

Well, either way it's a moot point, since the answer is no. SC will not vote Democratic in 2028 and will certainly not be Safe Democratic.
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