NJ-SEN 2024: Draggin' The Line (3/24: Murphy OUT)

[Miked0920]

The best case for Dems would be for Menendez not to run, unless a GOP nominee makes NJ competitive at the presidential level its hard to see the Dems losing the seat. Tom Kean Jr I guess could be competitive against Menendez if things go south but he would have to forfeit his seat to run a race he could lose. I personally just to be safe wish Menendez not run for re- election.

[Miked0920]

I wonder, does anyone here believe the speculation that Menendez could possibly survive the Renomination Process in a Splintered Primary. There are currently 6 or 7 candidates in or likely, (Including Menendez himself, Andy Kim, Tammy Murphy, Larry Hamm, Kyle Jasey, and Kevin Cupples and Quadir Selby). Do you see Menendez surviving in this scenario if He has a decent or large sized field and possibly Hudson County endorsing him? I think its unlikely either way, but Im nervous that if its too big of a field and he gets renomination he could badly jeopardize the Dems chances of holding the seat, and enable a GOP'er to be elected here for the first time in a Senate Election since 1972.

[Miked0920]

What are the odds he gets actually convicted this time? Im a little concerned that if Menendez runs as an independent it could put NJ possibly in play.

[Miked0920]

I hope he does get convicted there is no place for behavior like this in politics.

[Miked0920]

Do you think that Menendez will ac tally be convicted on any of his 15 or so counts against him. Juries are extremely hard to convince that the defendant if they are a politician are guilty. I wish he wouldn't run as an independent. It could possibly split the vote just enough to allow a Republican to win a senate seat here for the first time since 1972. Andy Kim is still heavily favored and its unlikely even with Menendez that the GOP takes this seat, but its worth keeping an eye on especially if Menendez is found not guilty or has a hung jury.