How is Lake doing so much worse than Trump? For that record, why is polarization going way down in 2024 of all years?
The most likely answer is probably that it isn't.
Idk. 10 points isn’t really that large of ticket-splitting. Nowadays it seems like a lot, but even last cycle in Georgia (a famously inelastic state), there was a 10-point ticket split between the Senate and gubernatorial races. Nevada was only 2.5 points (but had two Dem incumbents), New Hampshire was 25 points, and Arizona was 4. Kansas was a staggering 26 points. Pennsylvania was 10.