Emerson: Baldwin +7, Trump +3

[Spectator]

I doubt we’re gonna see such a disparity between Biden and down ballot Dems on Election Day. Their numbers will probably converge at some point by then.

Be careful what you wish for. More likely that downballot converges on the presidential numbers than vice versa.

[Spectator]

I doubt we’re gonna see such a disparity between Biden and down ballot Dems on Election Day. Their numbers will probably converge at some point by then.

Be careful what you wish for. More likely that downballot converges on the presidential numbers than vice versa.

Yeah part of the difference is likely name recognition. Baldwin is at 46% while Biden is at 45%

17% of Trump voters are undecided in the Senate race vs just 5% of Biden voters.

There will be some cross over votes but I don't see it being a 10 point difference here.

Yes, lucky for Dems they generally don’t need that many ticket splitters even if Trump wins the presidency. If Baldwin runs 2-3 points ahead she wins since that’s probably the max that Trump could realistically win Wisconsin by. Tester and Brown don’t have that luxury.

[Spectator]

I doubt we’re gonna see such a disparity between Biden and down ballot Dems on Election Day. Their numbers will probably converge at some point by then.

Be careful what you wish for. More likely that downballot converges on the presidential numbers than vice versa.

I can see specific popular incumbents like Baldwin (who ran ahead of Wisconsin Democrats in general in 2018) or Casey over-performing, but I continue to really doubt that congressional Republicans taken as a whole will run behind Trump.

More of a 2022 scenario where Republican overconfidence leads to a ton of whiffs on Senate and House races by nominating bad/flawed candidates. The residency issues in most of the competitive Senate races—while not Dr. Oz level bad—aren’t good and would lead to an underperformance on that alone (WI, PA, MI, NV). Then you have…Kari Lake. On the House side, the underperformances of Trump are likely to come from either weak opponents (Joe Kent, Nick Begich, Paul Junge) or popular incumbent Democrats (Golden, Peltola, Kaptur). Whereas “normal” Republicans probably tend to match or exceed Trump’s performance.