Could FL Gov Flip in 2026?

[Spectator]

I doubt it, though they’re kind due for one. They probably would have done it in 2018 had they not nominated the guy under FBI investigation.

[Spectator]

No.

Democrats could nominate a perfect candidate in every respect and Florida's demographics would still just be too much to overcome.

Matt Gaetz will be the next Governor.

According to Split Ticket, Gaetz had a War Score of D +10 in 2022 (idk how accurate the model is as I don't agree with a lot of the scores), and that's against Rebekah Jones, one of the worst candidates Democrats could pick up. Gaetz has likely only gotten weaker since then, and is under investigation for sex trafficking. If this translates statewide, it's probably a Democratic win.

He did do about 3 points worse than Trump in 2020, and that’s before a lot of the really bad stuff came out.