Most vulnerable incumbent House Democrat

[Spectator]

One of the North Carolina people by default. Ohio at least has the potential of not getting redrawn. The five Trump district Democrats are all varying degrees of favored under the current maps.

[Spectator]

I think it's a more interesting question without the NC Dems. Excluding them, probably Cartwright? If the WAGOP gets its act together though it could be Gluesenkamp Pérez.

MGP is definitely more vulnerable than Cartwright. Much less entrenched incumbent, for starters. Cartwright's district was actually a little over a point bluer in 2020, and it also trended left by more.

MGP seems to have a very good read on the symbolic votes she needs to take to survive, and has branded herself as such I would say. She basically voted the same way Jared Golden does on everything, and we see how well that has worked for him thus far.

[Spectator]

MGP seems to have a very good read on the symbolic votes she needs to take to survive, and has branded herself as such I would say. She basically voted the same way Jared Golden does on everything, and we see how well that has worked for him thus far.

MGP probably won't outperform the top of the ticket by as much as Golden does; Maine probably has a bigger ticket splitting tradition in general.

Kent isn't a super weak candidate either. Her district is just not that red. Kent probably wins if Trump can win her district by 5.

Frankly she doesn’t need the same amount of crossover support as Jared Golden has. If she gets just a third of it she wins.

Also Joe Kent is extremely weak. WA-03 went red in the Senate race by 8 points and he still lost.