Is anyone else thinking Trump is going to get his asses kicked in 2024?

[Spectator]

I don't know because it's tough to predict this country, but I am quite confident that the average person is sick of this fat idiot. I have been sensing a lot of resentment towards his supporters and towards the Republican Party for continuing to force this disgusting man into our faces. Plus, I actually think that it's the Democrats that are the "victims" of polling bias right now. There is so much manufactured outrage around the Biden administration, but look at 2022. I don't care what self-conscious Republicans try to say, that was a humiliating midterm performance. I don't believe the polls that say Trump is competitive for the popular vote. New voters don't favor Trump, so at this point we're looking at people who voted against him twice having to change their minds and support him. I don't think it's happening.

Yeah, any poll that shows him doing better than 2020 I just disregard out of hand. I think 2022 justifies that since every Trump candidate managed to actually go worse than he did in 2020, despite the record inflation and Biden sitting at 40%

[Spectator]

A 47-47 tie in the popular vote and an easy Biden victory in the Electoral College is however what I currently see as the most likely outcome.

Trump got 46.1% in 2016 as a fresh face, and 46.8% in 2020 as an incumbent, but you think he'll top 47% as a retread under criminal investigation in 2024, and after all his anointed candidates collapsed in 2022?

Is there any reason other than "GOP good, Democrat bad" you would make such a prediction?

I would hope so but I also thought he would get his ass kicked in 2016 and 2020. For the life of me I don't see his appeal to anyone but I'm not going to underestimate him again.

100%

A Biden 52-45 win is what I would predict. Hard to see how Trumps whining gains him new voters. People hate sore losers.

[Spectator]

A 47-47 tie in the popular vote and an easy Biden victory in the Electoral College is however what I currently see as the most likely outcome.

Trump got 46.1% in 2016 as a fresh face, and 46.8% in 2020 as an incumbent, but you think he'll top 47% as a retread under criminal investigation in 2024, and after all his anointed candidates collapsed in 2022?

Is there any reason other than "GOP good, Democrat bad" you would make such a prediction?

I would hope so but I also thought he would get his ass kicked in 2016 and 2020. For the life of me I don't see his appeal to anyone but I'm not going to underestimate him again.

100%

A Biden 52-45 win is what I would predict. Hard to see how Trumps whining gains him new voters. People hate sore losers.

I don't think that Biden is going to get more than last time, 2020 was under ideal conditions that are not repeatable for the opposition.

The most he can get is 51 and the lowest 47, but the Electoral College is where Democrats are favoured, because they gain Whites and lose Minorities.

Minorities are concentrated mostly in safe states, Whites are mostly in swing states.

It's how the Democrats gained Senate seats.

You speak with such certainty, tell us where to invest our money while you’re at it.

[Spectator]

The real competition is going to be the Senate. I wouldn't be surprised if Republicans take it back, especially with MT+OH+WV likely being D to R flips. Dems would need to hold on to one of those and gain Texas to retain control.  I think it's doable in a wave year but pretty unlikely.

Biden needs to win by around 7 or 8 points for me to think Democrats are slight favorites to hold the Senate.