Is anyone else thinking Trump is going to get his asses kicked in 2024?

[TheReckoning]

At this point, I feel like everyone is done with Trump, except his hard core base, but they never made up more than 40% of politically active adults. I never thought Biden would lose to Trump in 2024, but I’m beginning to think not only will Biden win, he’s also to win rather decisively- Think Obama 08/Clinton 96/Bush 88 levels. Anyone else feeling this way?

[DaleCooper]

I don't know because it's tough to predict this country, but I am quite confident that the average person is sick of this fat idiot. I have been sensing a lot of resentment towards his supporters and towards the Republican Party for continuing to force this disgusting man into our faces. Plus, I actually think that it's the Democrats that are the "victims" of polling bias right now. There is so much manufactured outrage around the Biden administration, but look at 2022. I don't care what self-conscious Republicans try to say, that was a humiliating midterm performance. I don't believe the polls that say Trump is competitive for the popular vote. New voters don't favor Trump, so at this point we're looking at people who voted against him twice having to change their minds and support him. I don't think it's happening.

[TheElectoralBoobyPrize]

If inflation comes down without a significant increase in unemployment and there's no foreign crisis or scandal, then yeah I think Biden could win by that margin.

[TodayJunior]

Yes. and it doesn't matter what the political environment is. Dems clean house with him this time. Dems could eat a baby on live TV and still defeat Trump. He's done.

[BG-NY]

No (sane)

[Pericles]

If inflation comes down without a significant increase in unemployment and there's no foreign crisis or scandal, then yeah I think Biden could win by that margin.

Yes, though on the other hand if inflation remains high and if there is a recession then clearly Biden will be in trouble too. Obviously Biden isn't unbeatable at the moment, but 2022 shows that Republicans need to put up a fresh face against him.

[emailking]

Both of them yeah.

[Ferguson97]

In the general, yes.

[oraclebones]

Just curious: Is “asses” (plural) in the subject a typo or a joke (or neither, or both)?

[Minnesota Mike]

I would hope so but I also thought he would get his ass kicked in 2016 and 2020. For the life of me I don't see his appeal to anyone but I'm not going to underestimate him again.

[Spectator]

I don't know because it's tough to predict this country, but I am quite confident that the average person is sick of this fat idiot. I have been sensing a lot of resentment towards his supporters and towards the Republican Party for continuing to force this disgusting man into our faces. Plus, I actually think that it's the Democrats that are the "victims" of polling bias right now. There is so much manufactured outrage around the Biden administration, but look at 2022. I don't care what self-conscious Republicans try to say, that was a humiliating midterm performance. I don't believe the polls that say Trump is competitive for the popular vote. New voters don't favor Trump, so at this point we're looking at people who voted against him twice having to change their minds and support him. I don't think it's happening.

Yeah, any poll that shows him doing better than 2020 I just disregard out of hand. I think 2022 justifies that since every Trump candidate managed to actually go worse than he did in 2020, despite the record inflation and Biden sitting at 40%

[oldtimer]

At this point, I feel like everyone is done with Trump, except his hard core base, but they never made up more than 40% of politically active adults. I never thought Biden would lose to Trump in 2024, but I’m beginning to think not only will Biden win, he’s also to win rather decisively- Think Obama 08/Clinton 96/Bush 88 levels. Anyone else feeling this way?

No

Biden is on course to win re-election since last summer, but not at landslide levels.

Looking at the broad picture he is on course to a tie or a small loss on the Popular Vote even against Trump.

At the specific state level he is on course to keep all his states except Nevada and perhaps Wisconsin even if he loses the Popular Vote by 3-4 points.

[oldtimer]

I don't know because it's tough to predict this country, but I am quite confident that the average person is sick of this fat idiot. I have been sensing a lot of resentment towards his supporters and towards the Republican Party for continuing to force this disgusting man into our faces. Plus, I actually think that it's the Democrats that are the "victims" of polling bias right now. There is so much manufactured outrage around the Biden administration, but look at 2022. I don't care what self-conscious Republicans try to say, that was a humiliating midterm performance. I don't believe the polls that say Trump is competitive for the popular vote. New voters don't favor Trump, so at this point we're looking at people who voted against him twice having to change their minds and support him. I don't think it's happening.

On percentage wise those are probably around 47%.

Hillary got 48 but a slimmer of minority Hillary voters voted Trump in 2020.

The bottom for Trump is of course those who voted for him even in the middle of the Plague in 2020, 47%, if you voted Trump in 2020 under the worst possible conditions you are going to vote for him again.

Or if you like the 46 minus the slimmer who voted Biden in 2020, so 45%.

A 47-47 tie in the popular vote and an easy Biden victory in the Electoral College is however what I currently see as the most likely outcome.

[Epaminondas]

A 47-47 tie in the popular vote and an easy Biden victory in the Electoral College is however what I currently see as the most likely outcome.

So much wrong in this post.
Trump got 46.1% in 2016 as a fresh face, and 46.8% in 2020 as an incumbent, but you think he'll top 47% as a retread under criminal investigation in 2024, and after all his anointed candidates collapsed in 2022?
Is there any reason other than "GOP good, Democrat bad" you would make such a prediction?

"Easy Dem EC win, tied PV": not possible unless California swings massively GOP while Texas flips, which is certainly not the modal outcome.

I would hope so but I also thought he would get his ass kicked in 2016 and 2020. For the life of me I don't see his appeal to anyone but I'm not going to underestimate him again.

100%

[Spectator]

A 47-47 tie in the popular vote and an easy Biden victory in the Electoral College is however what I currently see as the most likely outcome.

Trump got 46.1% in 2016 as a fresh face, and 46.8% in 2020 as an incumbent, but you think he'll top 47% as a retread under criminal investigation in 2024, and after all his anointed candidates collapsed in 2022?

Is there any reason other than "GOP good, Democrat bad" you would make such a prediction?

I would hope so but I also thought he would get his ass kicked in 2016 and 2020. For the life of me I don't see his appeal to anyone but I'm not going to underestimate him again.

100%

A Biden 52-45 win is what I would predict. Hard to see how Trumps whining gains him new voters. People hate sore losers.

[LostInOhio]

If even 3% of Trump 2020 voters abandon him over this it will turn into a popular vote landslide if nothing else. Texas would likely be in play in that event either way.

[oldtimer]

A 47-47 tie in the popular vote and an easy Biden victory in the Electoral College is however what I currently see as the most likely outcome.

So much wrong in this post.
Trump got 46.1% in 2016 as a fresh face, and 46.8% in 2020 as an incumbent, but you think he'll top 47% as a retread under criminal investigation in 2024, and after all his anointed candidates collapsed in 2022?
Is there any reason other than "GOP good, Democrat bad" you would make such a prediction?

"Easy Dem EC win, tied PV": not possible unless California swings massively GOP while Texas flips, which is certainly not the modal outcome.

I would hope so but I also thought he would get his ass kicked in 2016 and 2020. For the life of me I don't see his appeal to anyone but I'm not going to underestimate him again.

100%

My reasoning is completely rational, if you voted for Hillary you would be bound to vote for any other Democrat, and if you voted Trump in 2020 you would be bound to vote for him again.

Since both were the worst candidates at the worst time, their score is probably the current floor.

And that reasoning worked perfectly in 2020 too.

Also the midterms showed how the GOP can win the Popular Vote by 3 and still lose all the swing states.

[oldtimer]

A 47-47 tie in the popular vote and an easy Biden victory in the Electoral College is however what I currently see as the most likely outcome.

Trump got 46.1% in 2016 as a fresh face, and 46.8% in 2020 as an incumbent, but you think he'll top 47% as a retread under criminal investigation in 2024, and after all his anointed candidates collapsed in 2022?

Is there any reason other than "GOP good, Democrat bad" you would make such a prediction?

I would hope so but I also thought he would get his ass kicked in 2016 and 2020. For the life of me I don't see his appeal to anyone but I'm not going to underestimate him again.

100%

A Biden 52-45 win is what I would predict. Hard to see how Trumps whining gains him new voters. People hate sore losers.

I don't think that Biden is going to get more than last time, 2020 was under ideal conditions that are not repeatable for the opposition.

The most he can get is 51 and the lowest 47, but the Electoral College is where Democrats are favoured, because they gain Whites and lose Minorities.

Minorities are concentrated mostly in safe states, Whites are mostly in swing states.

It's how the Democrats gained Senate seats.

[Spectator]

A 47-47 tie in the popular vote and an easy Biden victory in the Electoral College is however what I currently see as the most likely outcome.

Trump got 46.1% in 2016 as a fresh face, and 46.8% in 2020 as an incumbent, but you think he'll top 47% as a retread under criminal investigation in 2024, and after all his anointed candidates collapsed in 2022?

Is there any reason other than "GOP good, Democrat bad" you would make such a prediction?

I would hope so but I also thought he would get his ass kicked in 2016 and 2020. For the life of me I don't see his appeal to anyone but I'm not going to underestimate him again.

100%

A Biden 52-45 win is what I would predict. Hard to see how Trumps whining gains him new voters. People hate sore losers.

I don't think that Biden is going to get more than last time, 2020 was under ideal conditions that are not repeatable for the opposition.

The most he can get is 51 and the lowest 47, but the Electoral College is where Democrats are favoured, because they gain Whites and lose Minorities.

Minorities are concentrated mostly in safe states, Whites are mostly in swing states.

It's how the Democrats gained Senate seats.

You speak with such certainty, tell us where to invest our money while you’re at it.

[oldtimer]

A 47-47 tie in the popular vote and an easy Biden victory in the Electoral College is however what I currently see as the most likely outcome.

Trump got 46.1% in 2016 as a fresh face, and 46.8% in 2020 as an incumbent, but you think he'll top 47% as a retread under criminal investigation in 2024, and after all his anointed candidates collapsed in 2022?

Is there any reason other than "GOP good, Democrat bad" you would make such a prediction?

I would hope so but I also thought he would get his ass kicked in 2016 and 2020. For the life of me I don't see his appeal to anyone but I'm not going to underestimate him again.

100%

A Biden 52-45 win is what I would predict. Hard to see how Trumps whining gains him new voters. People hate sore losers.

I don't think that Biden is going to get more than last time, 2020 was under ideal conditions that are not repeatable for the opposition.

The most he can get is 51 and the lowest 47, but the Electoral College is where Democrats are favoured, because they gain Whites and lose Minorities.

Minorities are concentrated mostly in safe states, Whites are mostly in swing states.

It's how the Democrats gained Senate seats.

You speak with such certainty, tell us where to invest our money while you’re at it.

Stocks that are in fashion with wealthy west coast liberals, or just the SPY ETF if you are a long term investor (20+ years), companies with stable large dividends are rare and you have to catch them at the market bottom.

It's difficult to be a day trader if you are working, you need to pay a lot of attention per minute or second, usually most moves happen at the start of trading or towards the end.

And that's my advise for someone who's been dabbling with stocks since the mid 90's with 2 booms and busts.

You asked for it, so there it is.

[Progressive Pessimist]

A lot of people don't like Biden either. He won't win in a landslide.

I don't think anybody is realistically predicting a Biden landslide, especially in these polarized times. But even though Biden may not be loved, he doesn't evoke strong negative feelings either outside of people who already weren't going to vote for him anyway. Meanwhile Trump seems to be working overtime to ostracize absolutely any voter who isn't already a loyal zealot of his.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Waves don't happen now it happens in Oct 24 but when the H flood gates open for Ds due to too many RS in blue District's, then everything else including the Sen and Prez goes that's why Biden is already leading Trump now post indictment already
 
That's why Approval don't matter Trump is at   worse Approvals than Biden Pundicts keep polling Biden Approvals is pointless

I put 303 safe D on my prediction yeah I got a hack map but it's post indictment world and it's more indictments coming , 30 counts Trump is charged with

[redjohn]

The indictment will destroy Trump's chances in the general. As unpopular as Biden is, he's not going to lose against the incumbent president he defeated four years prior who is running as a criminal who's spent the past four years focusing on overturning election results. I think the nation swings to Biden by ~4% and Biden carries all his 2020 states + NC and TX. If Biden keeps OH under 5% (likely in a case where the nation swings left by 4%) and MT swings marginally to the left (probably votes ~R+12), Dems have a real shot at holding the Senate and flipping the House.

I just don't see how Trump gains any ground outside of slight increases in rural areas and maybe pro-R swings concentrated in FL and counties bordering Mexico. Biden is going to gain tons of ground in metro areas in MI, MN, AZ, GA, WI, PA, and other battleground states. I think the most likely situation is Biden easily wins re-election against an embattled Trump, House flips to Democrats, and the Senate barely stays in Democratic control (50-50 after WV flips).

[Inmate Trump]

The GOP will lose in 2024 if Trump is their nominee.

This indictment (and the ones forthcoming) will kill his general election chances. They would be complete morons to nominate him now.

[RFK 2024]

Like most people here I expect Trump sweeps the primary but loses in the general.  I'm not sure if it will be an epic "ass kicking" though or if it will be more underwhelming like 2020 or the 2022 midterms.  I can see a repeat of the 306 (now 303) map, maybe with NC flipping for Biden on a good night.  Political polarization will prevent the landslides we saw in the past