Virginia Mega Thread: The Youngkin Administration

[Spectator]

Was gone for an hour, what is new

Nobody tell him.

2022 will be a slaughter fest no matter what, and it’s best for Dems to accept that reality now than to gloat about McAuliffe’s 1-2 point victory in a state Biden won by 10%.

[Spectator]

When does Fairfax early vote drop?

[Spectator]

Wooooooooooo ¿early vote?!!!!!!
https://twitter.com/HotlineJosh/status/1455678446152130560?s=20

Looks like Election Day.

[Spectator]

Loudoun County should get closer to 60% for McAuliffe when EV comes in. Not bad at all for him and definitely not enough swing for Youngkin.

[Spectator]

Kornacki says the Loudoun vote is early/absentee.

RIP T-Mac.

No it is not, Kornacki is wrong.

Disastrous for Youngkin.

[Spectator]

Another significant VA senate retirement: the Dem in the Youngkin +15/Trump +10 2016 Eastern Shore seat.  This was a narrow Obama/Clinton seat before it lost significant urban territory in redistricting.  He probably didn't have much of a chance anyway.

I wonder if he’ll run for Congress

He’d make the most sense as Kiggans’ challenger unless Luria wanted to go again in a presidential year. Rouse is probably too fresh for 2024.

[Spectator]

WATN: Elaine Luria getting heavily involved in legislative elections this year, possibly with an eye towards 2025. She did pretty well last year, considering, even winning Virginia Beach.

https://richmond.com/news/state-and-regional/govt-and-politics/elaine-luria-launches-fundraising-committee-to-help-general-assembly-local-candidates/article_be43e9b0-b2cb-11ed-a3a9-cf5af0d8b25e.html

[Spectator]

New ad dropped by Younkin's super PAC, hinting at a presidential run to "pursue Reagan's legacy".

Do Resign-to-Run rules apply to VA?

https://twitter.com/GlennYoungkin/status/1659167200316407808?cxt=HHwWgIC23eXxxYY...

Supposedly this ad is "only" for Youngkin's PAC which is focusing on the November legislative elections. But it's blatantly a presidential campaign ad.

Odd timing given how he very recently said he won't be running.

It just occurred to me how Glenn Youngkin is really the only new Republican Governor or Senator from the Biden era that seems like a plausible presidential candidate. 2022 really stifled a lot of the would-be future candidates. Maybe JD Vance, but he’s a mess.

[Spectator]

Chap Petersen probably was just too moderate for a district like SD-37 and was coasting on hometown appeal.   Redistricting was probably going to screw him over no matter what.

All incumbents of both parties who lost today would probably not have lost - or at least made it much closer - if they were in their old districts. Joe Morrissey, for example, is quite literally the example of a legislator who knew how to serve his specific constituents and gave the finger to public opinion in the rest of the state. But redistricting changed the districts and shuffled voters, removing old constituents and adding voters who have never been given a reason to like said incumbent. And so the incumbent must actually win the trust of those new voters, or risk them selecting one of their own and outvoting the carryover constituents.

Morrisey got destroyed everywhere. Even in his old district he was still losing by more than 20 points.

[Spectator]

If McAuliffe had won we'd be looking at a Minnesota 2.0 legislative session next year after getting rid of all that deadweight tonight. Now we have to wait until 2026 for any real progressive legislative wins. Of course this is all predicated on Dems doing decent this year and flipping back the Gov in '25.

Well, I don't think anyone was expecting the state senate to shift that far to the left that quickly.  Since the strongest Republicans won their primaries in the 3 lean R seats and both of the rural-ish Dem incumbents have retired, they fundamentally need to win a Youngkin +1 outer Loudoun based seat to hold the chamber.  There's also a McAuliffe +4 district in western Prince William that wasn't a clearly Dem leaning seat until the Trump era and swung back pretty hard to the right in the 2022 congressional vote.  Between this and all the progressive prosecutors being renominated, is a message this left-leaning going to sell in either of these seats?  IDK.  This could reasonably be the thus far and no further moment in outer NOVA in the GE.

It's true that Loudoun and PWC swung right in 2022, but even with that swing these districts would both be won by Democratic candidates. 2021 was a red tidal wave, primarily driven by presidential-level republican turnout caused by covid fatigue. You're talking about Rs flipping districts that Biden won by 17 points. That hasn't really happened anywhere in the country. I also think that Russet is a very high-quality candidate. Like Mikie Sherrill in North Jersey, it's like she was grown in a lab to win her district.

I agree, it’s kind of hard to say a Youngkin +1 seat is even really a tossup. 2021 is the high mark of Virginia Republicans post-2010, and acting like Youngkin +1 is the starting baseline is very misleading. Something like 2022 would be more realistic.

[Spectator]

I wonder if we’re underestimating the possibility that results mostly converge with federal partisanship, and Dems win decent majorities (like 58-42 and 23-17). It seems like in 2022, Dems really didn’t run much behind Biden numbers in state leg races even in suburbs that saw downballot lag in 2020. Infact in places like Johnson County KS Dems won Trump seats in the state leg.

Even almost a year after 2022, I’m still in shock at just how well Democrats did. Arguably did better than in 2018 in several metrics (governorships, Senate, legislatures)