2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: California

[Spectator]

These all have a good chance of going GOP in a Republican year. Costa nearly lost Obama +20 seats in two different midterms.

[Spectator]

Good news short term, bad news long term for Democrats if that’s the case.

How, these areas are becoming more Democratic lol.

If the 2010’s were any indication, Republicans would win those districts about half of the time.

Nines would probably lose to a Rudy Salas or Melissa Hurtado figure though.

[Spectator]

Garcia gets a slightly redder seat, but still pretty blue by replacing Simi Valley with a chunk of Kern County. Only a matter of time before he loses.

[Spectator]

Thunderstorming where my house is so can’t get internet on the laptop, but it def gets a little redder and whiter based on the CVAP. Biden will still have easily won it though.

[Spectator]

2 points left and basically the same seat leave Garcia in an OK position; it was possible for him to be given a Biden+20 seat or so. Given his 2020 performance he may do OK in Biden+12.

By contrast Issa became an underperformer by the mid-2010s and even though I generally think the GOP will be OK in Biden+6 seats I wonder if Issa specifically might not be doomed.

I think Garcia is probably doomed the cycle after the first GOP majority. It will be almost impossible for a GOP incumbent to win a Biden+12 seat if they are voting for GOP legislative initiatives. And if they aren't, well the CA GOP despite top 2 has never really adapted to moderates in either party. Which means you get constant turnout battles.

I just am not sure Biden+10 or 12 or even 8 will make a difference then. Ie. it would have in 2020, but next time 2018 rolls around he will probably end up losing by 6+ anyway.

Garcia is probably in a tossup at best for 2022and would be toast in 2024 in an LA County-only seat.

[Spectator]

Roughly what's the net change in number of trump and biden seats ?

Basically a wash in its current crude form. Hardee’s and Steel’s seats become Trump 2020 seats (right now, could change) while Issa’s and Nunes’ become narrow Biden seats. There are a lot of marginal seats that could fall in a wave for either party, though, including LaMalfa’s, Valadao’s, Kim’s, and Bera’s.

[Spectator]

So Nunes now has a Biden seat, albeit a narrow one?

Looks like it.
It'll be nice seeing him try to adjust to this new constituency. Among the most partisan CA Rs, stuck in a Biden district....

Yeah, I expect if the seat remains similar politically that Nunes will go down in '24. Imagine how much money would go to a challenger that actually had a chance, given what happened in '18.

Yes, I have a feeling that a lot of the GOP incumbents barring Issa and Garcia survive 2022 but lose in 2024. This is a pretty good map for Dems to capitalize on as the decade progresses. The Central Valley seats including Costa’s are all liable to fall, but LaMalfa’s will probably fall by the end of the decade, as well as maybe Calvert’s

[Spectator]

Has anyone mapped out the legislative maps yet? Republicans hold a lot of Biden turf in both the state Senate and state Assembly and stand to lose even more ground.

[Spectator]

I'm pissed that we got DINO cucks like "CalamityBlue"* who are pushing these weak maps and they keep on UNILATERALLY DISARMING against Republicans, failing to use their greatest state, California, to their advantage for the upcoming midterms.

There is only one map which can possibly be considered. We can't be literally giving freebies to Republicans in congressional maps. No 49D-3R. No 50D-2R. No 49D-1R. All of these are basically hypermanders for the GOP. The only proper configuration is 52D-0R. Below:

Image Link

Image Link

ON DAVE'S REDISTRICTING APP

*No hard feelings man

All things considered, that’s really not a bad looking map aesthetically as far as gerrymanders go