UT-SEN 2024: Romney retiring

[Utah Neolib]

I think there may be a divided field challenging Romney. Utah AG Sean Reyes will probably be the FrontRunner but Jason Chaffetz, some rando crazy from the state legislature and possibly Stewart or Owens runs. Who does this all benefit? Mittens. I think it’s more likely he retires than is beat in a primary.

[Utah Neolib]

I really didn’t expect this guy to run. I was expecting Sean Reyes and he may very well announce regardless. If Romney runs again, 2 candidates bodes well for him even though he would probably lose against a unified front.

[Utah Neolib]

Mitt Romney a declaration of candidacy without announcing:
https://www.sltrib.com/news/politics/2023/04/12/mitt-romney-takes-first-step/

Sen. Mitt Romney quietly took the first step toward a reelection bid this week by filing a declaration of candidacy with the Federal Election Commission. While the move is not a definitive indicator that Romney plans to run for another U.S. Senate term in 2024, it’s the strongest hint yet about his intentions.

The paperwork, a “statement of candidacy” filed on Tuesday, allows Romney to start raising and spending money for campaign purposes.

[Utah Neolib]

https://www.abc4.com/news/politics/riverton-mayor-announces-candidacy-for-sen-mitt-romneys-seat-in-u-s-senate/

Riverton Mayor Trent Staggs announced on Tuesday he will be running for U.S. Sen. Mitt Romney’s seat in the U.S. Senate during the 2024 election.

In his campaign announcement made on social media, Staggs claimed Washington is broken and “enough is enough.”

“We have more IRS agents than border agents, and while we are paying $4 a gallon for gas, they’re sending our money unchecked to Ukraine,” said Staggs in a video posted to social media. “Now, we are almost $32 trillion in debt.”

(He lost the Salt Lake County Mayoral Election by 7 in 2020)

[Utah Neolib]

https://twitter.com/mkraju/status/1684700428305350656

[Utah Neolib]

He should've run in 2016 instead of Jeb. (My guess is that he would've thrown the nomination to Cruz rather than winning, but between him and Ted they could've boxed Trump out of the first four contests and polarized the race between the two of them.)

Anyway, this is a Utah primary and so we have to consider the possibility that the winner will be some random academic or staffer that no one has ever heard of (or even the possibility that the entire field will be random academics and staffers that no one has ever heard of), but the obvious immediate frontrunner is Sean Reyes, who has been known to have Senate ambitions for a while and was exploring challenging Romney in a primary.

Reyes is not the frontrunner. That would be Trent Staggs or Brad Wilson.

Stages barely has any name recognition while Reyes is polling first and is likely to get the Trump endorsement.

Well, Reyes is out so it’s all moot anyway.

How about they guy who made Sound of Freedom?

There is absolutely no source saying that Reyes is out. Wikipedia says so but provides n explanation as of why. Brad Wilson is weirdly moderate and will get pushed out by a moderate and a MAGA populist. He simply can’t carve a lane out. Reyes is the FrontRunner and has MAGA money and name recognition. Staggs has some influential endorsements already and could spoil Reyes in favor of John Curtis who is strongly considering running and would be by far the least bad.

[Utah Neolib]

https://twitter.com/TheCalvinCooli1/status/1702069889542812069?t=CJFY49Izh7DWmbs...
Predictions for the mystery candidate? Probably someone Trumpy because Reyes is very conservative.

The Calvin Coolidge Project is a a rumor mill.

[Utah Neolib]

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/gov-cox-praises-romney-gives-tentative-endorsement-to-wilson-in-senate-race/ar-AA1h49V8

“He’s the type of person that would make an incredible senator,” Cox said of Wilson. “I believe he’s one of the best Speakers of the House that we’ve ever had in this state, and it’s been an honor to work with him.”
From Salt Lake Tribune (different article, can’t find again)

[Utah Neolib]

https://twitter.com/LindsayOnAir/status/1708986870317953359?t=wk-n2hbaNq6on4AL7o...
Curtis out.

If he ran he probably would have been the frontrunner. Wilson seems to be the establishment choice.

Curtis would’ve had a unique advantage in Provo and Utah County given that he was mayor of Provo and represents most of the population in the county. He could’ve put up a solid performance in Salt Lake and Utah counties and won. Presuming someone else major like Blake Moore or Deirdre Henderson runs, Wilson is a not-insurmountable favorite.

[Utah Neolib]

https://twitter.com/LindsayOnAir/status/1708986870317953359?t=wk-n2hbaNq6on4AL7o...
Curtis out.

If he ran he probably would have been the frontrunner. Wilson seems to be the establishment choice.

Curtis would’ve had a unique advantage in Provo and Utah County given that he was mayor of Provo and represents most of the population in the county. He could’ve put up a solid performance in Salt Lake and Utah counties and won. Presuming someone else major like Blake Moore or Deirdre Henderson runs, Wilson is a not-insurmountable favorite.

I highly doubt Moore runs.

I agree and I also think Henderson won’t run. However they were the two major options I thought of (Owens is old and probably wants to retire in 2026 after he gets the pension).

[Utah Neolib]

https://www.upr.org/utah-news/2023-10-11/us-senate-candidate-brad-wilson-faces-lawsuit-lawyer-says-its-baseless

A lawsuit filed late last month accuses soon-to-be-former Utah House speaker and U.S. Senate candidate Brad Wilson of financial misconduct at Destination Homes, a company Wilson co-founded. The lawsuit was filed by David Peterson, the company’s former chief finance officer.

In the lawsuit, Peterson alleges that after he lent the company $430,000, Wilson refused to pay the agreed-upon interest on the loan and fractured a deal that guaranteed Peterson a share of the stock in the company. Meanwhile, the suit alleges Wilson, who wasn’t yet in the Utah Legislature, lent money to then-state Sen. Greg Bell, who later became lieutenant governor.

Peterson also alleges the money to Bell was later forgiven by Wilson, a move that was intended to help Wilson’s political aspirations.

[Utah Neolib]

Carolyn Phippen, former Mike Lee and Greg Hughes advisor enters the race:
https://www.fox13now.com/news/politics/former-utah-house-candidate-announces-shes-running-for-senate-to-replace-outgoing-mitt-romney

According to her campaign website, Phippen is the executive director of Freedom Front of Utah, which she said "protects individual liberties and the free market." The Salt Lake Tribune reports that Phippen was also a staffer for Sen. Mike Lee.

In her campaign announcement, Phippen touts her "strong commitment to her community and a deep-rooted belief in limited government and individual liberties" and hopes to bring "a fresh perspective" to the office if elected.

“I’m not a career politician. I’m a mom who knows what it takes to raise a family in Utah. For too long, D.C. politicians have prioritized their own interests while their reckless spending has sent our economy spiraling," she said. "I believe that our nation’s best days lie ahead, but we must elect leaders who not only understand the real challenges we face, but who will do the hard work to restore the principles that have made this nation prosper.”

I think it’s possible she can take the MAGA types away from Staggs and towards her, but this probably just splits their vote. Still Likely Wilson until someone major enters.

[Utah Neolib]

Carolyn Phippen, former Mike Lee and Greg Hughes advisor enters the race:
https://www.fox13now.com/news/politics/former-utah-house-candidate-announces-shes-running-for-senate-to-replace-outgoing-mitt-romney

According to her campaign website, Phippen is the executive director of Freedom Front of Utah, which she said "protects individual liberties and the free market." The Salt Lake Tribune reports that Phippen was also a staffer for Sen. Mike Lee.

In her campaign announcement, Phippen touts her "strong commitment to her community and a deep-rooted belief in limited government and individual liberties" and hopes to bring "a fresh perspective" to the office if elected.

“I’m not a career politician. I’m a mom who knows what it takes to raise a family in Utah. For too long, D.C. politicians have prioritized their own interests while their reckless spending has sent our economy spiraling," she said. "I believe that our nation’s best days lie ahead, but we must elect leaders who not only understand the real challenges we face, but who will do the hard work to restore the principles that have made this nation prosper.”

I think it’s possible she can take the MAGA types away from Staggs and towards her, but this probably just splits their vote. Still Likely Wilson until someone major enters.

Mike Lee probably endorses Staggs at this rate, so I'm not sure how much of an impact a former Lee/Hughes staffer will make.

I’d bet Mike Lee remains neutral, as Romney stayed neutral in his race.

[Utah Neolib]

https://twitter.com/SLTribPolitics/status/1722711646710226968?t=-A8ERiwlM7LMNuwr...
Never say never I guess?

WE ARE SO BACK

[Utah Neolib]

https://twitter.com/SLTribPolitics/status/1722711646710226968?t=-A8ERiwlM7LMNuwr...
Never say never I guess?

NOOOOOO

He's in:

https://twitter.com/nathanlgonzales/status/1725215005899935790?t=IXHTJpMvTdX8AQJ...

Prediction: Tilt/Lean Curtis primary. He has the unique ability to be somewhat moderate and still be able to get a strong performance out of Utah County (Provo, he was mayor) if not win it outright. He’s also probably able to get a strong performance out of Salt Lake and Weber out of being the most moderate. That’s a great combination to win. The biggest danger to Curtis would actually be someone more moderate than him running, like Becky Edwards who would completely kneecap him. Wilson has to go ham in Utah County to win. But remember that these guys would vote the same the vast majority of the time.

[Utah Neolib]

https://twitter.com/SLTribPolitics/status/1722711646710226968?t=-A8ERiwlM7LMNuwr...
Never say never I guess?

NOOOOOO

He's in:

https://twitter.com/nathanlgonzales/status/1725215005899935790?t=IXHTJpMvTdX8AQJ...

Prediction: Tilt/Lean Curtis primary. He has the unique ability to be somewhat moderate and still be able to get a strong performance out of Utah County (Provo, he was mayor) if not win it outright. He’s also probably able to get a strong performance out of Salt Lake and Weber out of being the most moderate. That’s a great combination to win. The biggest danger to Curtis would actually be someone more moderate than him running, like Becky Edwards who would completely kneecap him. Wilson has to go ham in Utah County to win. But remember that these guys would vote the same the vast majority of the time.

I guess if someone like Becky Edwards gets in, it splits the moderate vote enough to get Wilson in?

It would completely derail him in Salt Lake County which he definitely needs to win by a good margin to have any chance at all. Wilson could narrowly eke by with a plurality. Also Staggs/Phippen have no chance at this point because both are running.

[Utah Neolib]

https://twitter.com/SLTribPolitics/status/1722711646710226968?t=-A8ERiwlM7LMNuwr...
Never say never I guess?

NOOOOOO

He's in:

https://twitter.com/nathanlgonzales/status/1725215005899935790?t=IXHTJpMvTdX8AQJ...

Prediction: Tilt/Lean Curtis primary. He has the unique ability to be somewhat moderate and still be able to get a strong performance out of Utah County (Provo, he was mayor) if not win it outright. He’s also probably able to get a strong performance out of Salt Lake and Weber out of being the most moderate. That’s a great combination to win. The biggest danger to Curtis would actually be someone more moderate than him running, like Becky Edwards who would completely kneecap him. Wilson has to go ham in Utah County to win. But remember that these guys would vote the same the vast majority of the time.

I guess if someone like Becky Edwards gets in, it splits the moderate vote enough to get Wilson in?

It would completely derail him in Salt Lake County which he definitely needs to win by a good margin to have any chance at all. Wilson could narrowly eke by with a plurality. Also Staggs/Phippen have no chance at this point because both are running.

What would be the effects if Trump endorses Staggs?

I would guess he receives around the same level of support, maybe a bump in Utah County but the rural areas only make up a small percentage of the state’s population (even the Saint George metro is surprisingly small compared to the state as a whole) and those areas are probably mostly Staggs best anyway. If Phippen were to receive a Mike Lee endorsement, it would give her campaign more credibility and put her at the exact same level as Staggs. Wilson’s base is fragile in my opinion because there’s many who could be prone to vote for a more moderate candidate such as Curtis, but also some who could go to either of the Trump-aligned candidates. The main question about Staggs and Phippen is which one will be Hughes and this year’s Wright.

[Utah Neolib]

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/utah-republican-seeking-replace-romney-falsified-endorsements-pressured-some-support-campaign-lawmaker?intcmp=tw_fnc

Speaking anonymously about the alleged endorsement of Wilson's campaign, one lawmaker whose name was on the list said he never endorsed the Republican in his race for the Senate. Other officials confirmed to Fox Digital that their names were listed even though they didn't endorse Wilson's bid.
The lawmaker – who requested to remain anonymous out of concern for retaliation from Wilson – said the fiasco with the campaign began this year when Wilson, whose tenure as House speaker concluded last week, called House members and pressured them to donate to him after he launched an exploratory committee to consider running for the seat.
Describing it as a "he knows what he's doing type of situation," the lawmaker also told Fox that some state House members who didn't financially support Wilson ended up losing their committee assignments.

[Utah Neolib]

https://www.deseret.com/2023/11/27/23965627/john-curtis-run-for-the-senate-3rd-congressional-district-race

State Sen. Mike Kennedy is exploring a campaign for Utah’s 3rd Congressional District — which includes the Wasatch Front from Provo to Sandy and nearly all of eastern Utah — he told the Deseret News.
Dougall — known on the campaign trail as John “Frugal” Dougall — also expressed an interest in running for Curtis’ seat during a conversation with the Deseret News.
Dougall took over the state auditor’s office in 2013 after ousting a longtime incumbent in a primary election. As auditor, Dougall has reviewed the state’s COVID-19 expenditures and database security.
Carolyn Phippen, another U.S. Senate candidate, may also “look to start in Triple A instead of MLB,” and exchange a statewide race for a 3rd District race
Other potential candidates who might throw their hat in the ring include former 3rd District candidate Stewart Peay, Utah County Commissioner Amelia Powers Gardner and former 2nd District candidate Bruce Hough, Jowers said.
Tanner Ainge, who ran against Curtis to represent the 3rd District in 2017, and Utah Lt. Gov. Deidre Henderson, who previously represented Spanish Fork in the Utah Senate, also appear to be well-positioned to launch congressional campaigns.

I would include Michelle Kaufusi, the current mayor of Provo as another likely candidate. I don’t believe Henderson will run for this, she’s the heir apparent (probably) in 2028 and she actually did unsuccessfully run for this seat in 2017 and lost at the convention. Kennedy and Dougall are the most likely in my opinion as they have ran or currently occupy state office.

[Utah Neolib]

Prospective poll finds Curtis with 43%, Wilson 11%, Staggs 6%, the rest Undecided. 60% know who Curtis is, 33% Wilson, 15% Staggs. So even though this poll seems to have been commissioned with the goal of getting Curtis to close the deal and run, there isn't much reason to doubt him having many campaign advantages.

We're gonna get Romney 2.0 aren't we...

Curtis would probably be more of a John Hoeven, someone who receives little attention and is mostly quite generic but is occasionally moderate on random issues. If Curtis runs he’s probably the FrontRunner given he represents a 1/4 of SL County and a majority of Utah County’s population. His district appears far more rural than it actually is. Wilson has a few skeletons in his closet, but will probably be the most well funded given he’s probably the NRSC’s favorite. A wrench in Curtis’s possible win would be a decently funded moderate, who I have yet to hear of who could stifle his margins in Salt Lake County. This primary relies entirely on Utah County and Salt Lake County, the rurals are unimportant statewide.

[Utah Neolib]

https://twitter.com/SchottHappens/status/1742297349047906323

Petition to rename this thread to ‘Crack open the Hatch’

[Utah Neolib]

How about: ‘What the Willson’s of Curtisy Demand’

[Utah Neolib]

https://www.deseret.com/2024/1/21/24046110/brad-wilson-endorses-donald-trump

“It is evident that President Trump is the right nominee for our party,” Wilson wrote. “I look forward to working in the Senate with President Trump to unite our party, secure a stronger future for America, and continue the fight for conservative leadership. ... President Trump has my full endorsement.”

Yeah this guy isn’t going to get a respectable performance out of Salt Lake County lol
“RINO”

[Utah Neolib]

https://www.deseret.com/politics/2024/06/09/utah-senate-poll-romney-curtis-staggs-wilson-walton/
First non-internal since the Dan Jones & Associates Poll where Brent Hatch was still in the race.

In the Utah Republican primary to replace Sen. Mitt Romney, a new poll shows Congressman John Curtis is ahead of the next closest candidate, Riverton Mayor Trent Staggs, by 18 percentage points. But, a third of likely Utah Republican voters still say they’re undecided, even as ballots have already hit mailboxes across the state.
A new poll conducted by HarrisX for the Deseret News and the University of Utah’s Hinckley Institute of Politics shows Curtis ahead with 34% support among registered Republican voters, while Staggs has 16%, former Utah House Speaker Brad Wilson has 12%, and Moxie Pest Control CEO Jason Walton is at 4%. Another 33% of voters said they were unsure.
Among likely GOP primary voters, the split was 36% for Curtis, 18% for Staggs, 13% for Wilson and 5% for Walton.
When undecided voters were asked which way they were leaning, Curtis’ lead increased to 47%, while Wilson moved into second place with 24%. Staggs’ support moved to 21%, and Walton to 8%.
Curtis was up in most demographic categories including self-described conservatives and likely Donald Trump voters, even though Staggs received Trump’s endorsement.