Assuming Ronchetti gets the nomination, I think this could be the surprise flip of the year. Tossup/tilt R. Remember he didn't lose by that much in the 2020 senate race, in fact it was more competitive than Maine, which many expected to flip.
Not just Maine. In addition to Gideon, Ronchetti also did better than Bullock, Bollier, Greenfield, Gross, Harrison, and Hegar, all of whom were in supposedly competitive races. In contrast to all of these candidates, he was largely ignored during the campaign and did not fundraise to nearly the same extent or have the same amount of party resources allocated to him.
Entirely possible that being largely ignored helped his campaign outperform Trump, just like how Mike Espy outran Biden by more than Jaime Harrison in 2020.
Poll
