2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: Florida

[patzer]

A Democratic district can be drawn in Duval, wouldn't that be effectively black influence?

Not yet. The numbers and trends suggest though that it is very close and would almost certainly be an option if we did mid-decade censuses.

This would be 43% white, 37% black, 12% Hispanic, 7% Asian. Biden +14.

Surely that's enough to be black performing? Black people are bound to be a comfortable majority in Dem primaries, and the Dem primary winner will win the general election race.

[patzer]

The issue here was never the Dem Primary - the Jacksonville mayoral contests show that African American voters control the Democratic side of the city - but the generals. To that end - what is the Dem margins there? Most importantly, the exogenous 2018 gov race. A simple west Duval seat I drew up in 1 minute had margins between 5 and 10%, with Rubio winning the seat. That's not enough allies for the African American primary voters to defend the seat and make it constantly perform. Especially since a Duval only seat would be looking at the tighter Black-White mayoral races as exogenous contests to measure by - those these are not in DRA. These are also new allies, whereas say downtown Richmond or downtown New Orleans are long term blocks of coalition White voters. FL-10 offers another comparison here.

To that end, Alachua-Duval would certainly work this decade, but since the original point was to concentrate a seat in the Duval region, that option is beyond the scope of this analysis.

Well here's the DRA link to my map of a Dem Duval seat: https://davesredistricting.org/join/da202038-7138-4862-a7f7-06799750b83f

I was going to say it was reliably Dem but then I checked the 2016 Senate election and that was indeed Rubio+7... I'd be inclined to think that's a one off and that the seat wouldn't come even close to going R again, but I grant that you have a good point.

[patzer]

Potentially vulnerable R seats on that map:

2nd: Trump+11.9 in 2016, Trump+11.1 in 2020
4th: Trump+10.4 in 2016, Trump+6.7 in 2020
7th: Trump+7.7 in 2016, Trump+5.5 in 2020
11th: Trump+15.0 in 2016, Trump+10.8 in 2020
13th: Trump+7.8 in 2016, Trump+6.7 in 2020
15th: Trump+3.9 in 2016, Trump+3.2 in 2020
16th: Trump+12.5 in 2016, Trump+8.8 in 2020
21st: Trump+10.2 in 2016, Trump+9.4 in 2020
26th: Trump+3.5 in 2016, Trump+18.3 in 2020 (only vulnerable if Hispanic voters return to the Democrats)
27th: Clinton+17.2 in 2016, Trump+0.3 in 2020
28th: Clinton+15.5 in 2016, Trump+6.3 in 2020

In a favourable midterm for the Dems, I'd guess that the 4th, 7th, 13th, 15th, 16th, 27th, and 28th fall.

[patzer]

I would have thought that even now a Jacksonville-Gainesville district should be able to be safe D, don't think you have to go to Tallahassee