2022 or 2024, which would be easier for Hogan to win?

[David Hume]

2022
pro: low dem turn-out
con: running against an incumbent

2024
pro: open seat, slightly weaker opponent
con: presidential turn-out

The fact that Hogan was the incumbent governor in 2022 but no position right now is probably not important, considering his high popularity. Sharing ballot with Trump might mean more low info R voters, but the negative effect is obvious.

[David Hume]

2024 in the sense that he'll lose by 30 points instead of 35.

I bet it will be lower than 30

[David Hume]

In 2022, there was the possibility that localized factors could have shaped the race and this worked to Republicans’ favor in some deep blue states like New York. 2022 also seemed to be a break in polarization somewhat, and I don’t expect that to be repeated in 2024.

Hogan has a unique brand and is too different from Trump. He should distance himself with Trump as much as possible.