Gay Marriage/Civil Unions in 10 years

[Holmes]

It's a good thing we're doing a march in in DC in October when there are 3 other huge events planned by other causes in the same weekend and Congress is in recess so no one will be there to see it.

[Holmes]

White House reply.

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Congress will never repeal DOMA. And Obama knows it.

[Holmes]

Perhaps they're also afraid of the upcoming Prop 8 case. Might as well go all out now in preparation for it.

Mmm, I guess it's gonna that much more difficult to trust a federal presidential candidate who says they'll be an ally now. Sucks for the ones who probably would be.

[Holmes]

Well, anyway. Aside from that fiasco, I'd like to share a report that Columbia University did on public opinion.


http://www.columbia.edu/~jrl2124/Lax_Phillips_Gay_Policy_Responsiveness_2009.pdf

There's a bigger version of the graph on the last page. And Utah is a mistake, should be at 25%.

Missouri really acts like a southern state on this issue. And it's neat to see how Oregon was pretty conservative on this, and now it wouldn't be a big deal to see them vote to overturn their amendment on it. And West Virginia moved a lot too, although support is still low. Oh, and support in Pennsylvania is higher than I expected. Outlier?

And support in Colorado is good, I heard they're gonna try put it on the ballot every election until they get it. Hur.

[Holmes]

I guess being around Kansas, Kentucky and Arkansas wasn't good for Missouri, compared to being around California and Washington was good for Oregon.

[Holmes]

Apparently Monserrate has stayed with the coalition. Gay marriage bill to possibly appear on the floor today maybe?

So many things happening today. Iran, physics exam, and this. Ooh.

[Holmes]

NOM did a poll in Rhode Island. It's emberassing.

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Sigh. It's almost as good as the one in New Hampshire where they asked "Should marriage between one man and one woman be illegal?"

[Holmes]

Who cares? It's like giving drops of water to someone in the desert after taking away their water source.

Or rather, any chance of getting a water source.

[Holmes]

Opponents in Maine hired the out of state yes on 8 firm today. Supporters teamed up, hired the man who successfully led the 2005 anti-discrimination fight and other powerful Mainers, and set up a PAC.

And Wisconsin is getting (weak) domestic partnerships soon. They passed it with the budget just recently.

[Holmes]

Well, anyway.

I hate polls that ask the question with three choices. Wy not just ask two questions - civil unions or not, and marriage or not. Oh well, here's one from Texas with the three choices in one.

Most Texans don't oppose same-sex unions, but they're split in their support for marriage or civil unions. While more than a third (36%) oppose either arrangement, 32% said they would support civil unions and another 25% think same-sex marriages should be permitted. The poll found a distinct partisan difference, with civil unions as the preference of 29% of Democrats, 31% of Independents and 37% of Republicans; same-sex marriage the preferred alternative of 36% of Democrats, 25% of Independents, and 14% of Republicans. Allowing neither of those alternatives was the preference of 29% of Democrats, 35% of Independents, and 43% of Republicans.



Shocked to see more Republicans than Democrats support civil unions. I just think it's weird that Texas Democrats are instead throwing their support behind marriage.

[Holmes]

I know that the young Democrats in Arkansas are really progessive, maybe the same can be said about Texas too. Plus the urban effect that you mentioned. But I guess I just have this image in my head that all Democrats in Texas are Dixiecrats... maybe I shouldn't.

Here's one from New York by Quinnipiac, but it's hardly shocking.

NEW YORK (Reuters) - New York State voters have shifted their support for the first time to a slim majority backing a law to allow same-sex couples to marry, Quinnipiac University said in a poll released on Tuesday.

The poll found 51 percent of voters supported gay marriage versus 41 percent who opposed it, with 8 percent undecided.

The poll was released as a bill seeking to legalize gay marriage languishes in the State Senate due to a leadership battle between Democrats and Republicans.

The Siena one that had it at 46-46 last month has it at like 52 - 43, or in that range, I think. But they're kinda junky in their polls with this issue.

[Holmes]

The same-sex marriage bill is the first bill on the schedule today. No one knows what Diaz will do... but does it matter? If he stays with the Dems, the bill will come up. If he goes with Skelos and Espada, it'll still come up because they want it to as well. He can't leave cause Paterson will just sick the police on him and force him back(would be amusing to watch though). I wonder if he'll just shout prayers and chants while the floor debates the bill.

Here's something he said the other day:

"As a legislator of Hispanic origin, today I am very disappointed with those members of the Hispanic delegation in the State Assembly for supporting homosexual marriage in New York.
It is sad that the Hispanic legislators in the NYS Assembly will vote in favor of homosexual marriage today. Our community as a whole, Black, White, Asian, Islamic and Hispanic is at least 80% against homosexual marriage. Most New Yorkers are from communities that believes in moral, traditional and family values."

80%. Really. And I hate how he thinks he speaks for all latinos. My boyfriend and family are all latino and are nothing like him.. blah.

Gossip: He has two gay brothers and best friends.

[Holmes]

Why would they ask the same question twice with different wording...


In Albany, apparently there's a compromise on the leadership, and it doesn't look good.

President pro tempore: Democratic Sen. Malcolm Smith

Senate majority leader: Republican Sen. Dean Skelos

Vice-president pro tempore: Democratic Sen. Pedro Espada

Democratic conference leader: Democratic Sen. John Sampson

With Malcolm Smith having some power, the same-sex marriage bill will never come to a vote. He's Diaz's lapdog, and even if he supports equality, he's poison as a leader.

[Holmes]

Maine Freedom To Marry site has opened, btw. I'm really impressed by how much outreach they do. Check out their calendar.

http://mainefreedomtomarry.com/calendar/2009-07

They go door to door every Saturday and phonebank every Wednesday, Thursday and Sunday. And they're already holding town halls this early and canvass at most public events. I hope California is taking note. (Although California is almost 40 times larger than Maine so it's way harder, but still)

[Holmes]

Maine signature gatherers are lying. They say they have enough signatures right now.

I don't doubt that they're gonna get them. I just think that their announcement that they have the signatures, so they can use to fund raise better, is premature. Two weeks ago, they said they had gotten 11,000 - 13,000 signatures in the past three weeks. Then there were reports of them being confused and disorganized, not to mention it's been raining badly in Maine for the past month. Yesterday, they claimed that they had exactly the 55,000 signatures.

Now they're saying they have 70,000 signatures.

Really.

[Holmes]

omg teh will of teh ppl not want gay maraige!1

In Maine, the Catholic Diocese of Portland has donated $100,000 to the efforts to repeal the law - can they just legally do that? And NOM has contributed $160,000. Bah them. The supporters have raised less funds so far but they're mostly getting their money from inside the state, from what I'm hearing.

Opponents are paranoid:

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Proponents are open:

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I think I should just open a separate thread about this campaign.. eventually.

[Holmes]

New straw poll of gay marriage leaders: Overturn Prop 8 in 2010

A straw poll of same sex marraige leaders gathered in San Bernardino Saturday just came in: The majority want to return to the ballot in 2010 to try to overturn Proposition 8. Final count of the nonbinding measure: 93 people voted to go in 2010, 49 in 2012 and 20 undecided.

The next step: Leaders will return to their organizations and then a final decision will be made in a couple of weeks. If they're going to go for it in 2010, they'd better hurry. Ballot language is due to the Attorney General by Sept. 25.


The only thing worse than losing in 2010, is not even trying in 2010. Next year is to their advantage, anyway - donors and volunteers will not be concentrated on Obama's efforts in Nevada or Arizona. Not to mention, in 2010 there'll be a lot more statewide candidates up for election who support the cause, compared to 2012.

Honestly, they act as if they got crushed in the polls, they're too afraid to do anything in fear of hurting their "image", and they apparently don't know how to run campaigns. Why aren't these people replaced anyway? Election day is in about 15 months, and they're stressing out because the polls say only 48% of voters would repeal prop 8 in 2010 and 49% of voters wouldn't. Wow.

California's groups need to take a lesson from New England's.