2020 Absentee/Early Voting thread

[Holmes]

On the other hand, Pennsylvania has a lot of Republicans in the Philadelphia suburbs that predominantly vote Democratic now, but are still registered as Republicans. I’m sure you’d see a similar situation in the Atlanta suburbs but there no party registration in Georgia. Party registration in PA, along with places like WV and KY, OK and northern FL doesn’t tell the full story.

[Holmes]

Very happy to see the votes arriving and being processed quickly in Philly.

[Holmes]

We're gonna get daily early voting turnout reports from Georgia, right?

[Holmes]

Nevada has posted its first numbers (so far only four rural counties). Funny enough, Democrats lead the returns in all four counties which all have a lot more registered Republicans than Democrats

https://www.nvsos.gov/sos/home/showdocument?id=9054

Do we think these are actual Dems or ancestral rural Dems who are voting GOP anyways? 

Other than Mineral and maybe Nye, which rural counties have ancestral Dems in Nevada?

[Holmes]

Whenever people bring up long voting lines, Republicans are always so quick to say "you don't have to vote today!" or "there are other ways to vote!" Like calm down. So quick to the defense.

[Holmes]

Omg Jessica exposed party.

[Holmes]

You can track live voter turnout in Tarrant here, and even see turnout by the hour.

https://www.tarrantcounty.com/en/elections/Upcoming-Election-Information/Live_Turn_Out_Widget.html

[Holmes]

We’re well into one million+ votes per day territory now, especially as more states begin in person early voting.

[Holmes]

does anyone know why there's basically no reporting from most of the suburban Philly counties?

Maybe the county election officials aren’t reporting their numbers. Many counties have 30-50% turnout so I’m sure the election officials have the ballots. Just not sure if they’re processed and counted.

[Holmes]

https://twitter.com/LinaHidalgoTX/status/1316048235945959425

Can Texans drop off their mail ballots at these early vote locations?
If yes then Abbott's decision to limit drop boxes is just plain stupid and served only to inflame Democrats in big cities.

Why do you refer to them as drop boxes?

If you have an unvoted mail ballot, you can take it to an early voting site and surrender your ballot and vote in person.

If you have a voted mail ballot you can take it to a post office and drop it in the mail.

Or you can... drop off your ballot at a drop box. Just because you got your ballot by mail doesn’t mean you need to return it by mail.

[Holmes]

https://twitter.com/LinaHidalgoTX/status/1316048235945959425

Can Texans drop off their mail ballots at these early vote locations?
If yes then Abbott's decision to limit drop boxes is just plain stupid and served only to inflame Democrats in big cities.

Why do you refer to them as drop boxes?

If you have an unvoted mail ballot, you can take it to an early voting site and surrender your ballot and vote in person.

If you have a voted mail ballot you can take it to a post office and drop it in the mail.

Or you can... drop off your ballot at a drop box. Just because you got your ballot by mail doesn’t mean you need to return it by mail.

Texas doesn't have drop boxes.

Under Texas statute you may take your mail ballot to the early voting clerk on election day and after showing an ID, hand it to them. This would mainly be for those concerned that their ballot might not get postmarked if they put it in the mail.

For this year, Governor Abbott extended the time period to the early voting period.

Ok. Maybe they should have drop boxes. And maybe they should make voting by mail more accessible so our friend Bagel23 doesn’t have to break the law and lie about having a disability to get a mail ballot.

[Holmes]

Lina Hidalgo is a hero, looks like Harris County has done exceptionally well despite the GOP state government’s open hostility to voting. She will be a great governor one day.

Jesus christ, she's my age.

[Holmes]

I’m looking forward to seeing what turnout is like today for North Carolina’s first day of in person early voting.

[Holmes]

6 states over 1 million votes locked in:

Florida
California
Texas
Michigan
Virginia
New Jersey

Wild. I expect Georgia to join them today and North Carolina probably by the end of the weekend now that early voting has begun.

[Holmes]

I think Florida’s early voting will give us a really good sense of how the state is shaping up. There’s over 5 million mail ballot requests in the state which will almost all be returned probably, and if a few million more vote early, it won’t matter how Republican the Election Day vote is if the vast majority of votes will already have been cast.

[Holmes]

(This update includes me)

King sh**t

[Holmes]

The Secretary of State for TN just released the numbers for the first day of early voting. 273,325!

Wow! That’s just one day?

[Holmes]

Todays update has been a bit of a letdown.  Yesterday we got about 3 million votes added.  Only 1.5 million so far today.  Hopefully more states report.

It's fine? The day's not over. There will be big numbers from CA, TX, NC, GA...

[Holmes]

Todays update has been a bit of a letdown.  Yesterday we got about 3 million votes added.  Only 1.5 million so far today.  Hopefully more states report.

It's fine? The day's not over. There will be big numbers from CA, TX, NC, GA...

I thought the TX numbers were already entered today.  Tonight's numbers won't be available til tomorrow was my understanding.

Oh, right, today's numbers won't reported until tomorrow, but the 17 million number isn't a real time number either. So I wouldn't get hung up on how quickly the site updates or by how much the number of votes go up each update/day.

[Holmes]

Who thinks we can hit 35 million votes by the end of next week?

It's possible. More states are starting early voting next week, including Florida. And mail ballots are starting to come in from CO, WA and UT.

[Holmes]

Does Ohio look terrible for Biden at the moment? only 47k in Cuyahoga so far?

Really depends on whether that's because people aren't returning their ballots or if the county is being slow to process returned ballots. For example, take a look at Cook County in Illinois... it's at 1% returned, but I'm willing to bet it's just the county dragging their feet when it comes to processing the ballots or reporting numbers.

[Holmes]

Does Ohio look terrible for Biden at the moment? only 47k in Cuyahoga so far?

Really depends on whether that's because people aren't returning their ballots or if the county is being slow to process returned ballots. For example, take a look at Cook County in Illinois... it's at 1% returned, but I'm willing to bet it's just the county dragging their feet when it comes to processing the ballots or reporting numbers.

I feel like Cuyahoga is known for reporting slow on election night, so it wouldn't surprise me if they are behind before the election as well.

Yes, they're slow, but that's why Ohio was able to be called for Obama early and Karl Rove had that meltdown on Fox.

[Holmes]

Huge vote dump from Minnesota. Almost 1,000,000 have voted and the Twin Cities are over 60% returns!

Fwiw (not much), Minnesota doesn’t distinguish between returned mail ballots and in person early votes. So I think the return percentage for counties on McDonald’s site is a little inflated.

[Holmes]

Dems lead Rep by 394.3 k in early voting. Dems lead Rep by 74.7 to 17.0 in terms of percentage.
In Philadelphia 156 k people have already voted.
Allegheny 190 k
Chester 49k
Lancaster 36 k
Northhampton 36 k

Some of these PA counties are taking forever to report their numbers, especially the Philly burbs. It’s annoying.

[Holmes]

Dems lead Rep by 394.3 k in early voting. Dems lead Rep by 74.7 to 17.0 in terms of percentage.
In Philadelphia 156 k people have already voted.
Allegheny 190 k
Chester 49k
Lancaster 36 k
Northhampton 36 k

Some of these PA counties are taking forever to report their numbers, especially the Philly burbs. It’s annoying.

Totally  agree with you. Bucks has 0.6 % return rate
Montgomery has 1% return rate

I think both counties had delays sending out their ballots, apparently most weren't sent until just a few days ago.

That’s irritating.