NV Caucus Results Thread (doors close at 2 CT)

[Holmes]

When will the entrance polls be released?

One can assume @ noon Pacific Time (3pm Eastern) when the voting starts.

Will they release early voting results at the early voting results at the same time?

It is my understanding that the early vote will be included in the precincts' final tallies because they need a full count to determine viability thresholds and other caucus stuff, so I doubt we'll ever get data on the early vote other than the amount of people that voted early. But maybe I'm wrong.

[Holmes]

I whipped up a composite map of 2012-2016 elections, splitting the state into 15 equally-sized districts based on the average Democratic vote (i.e. each district has approximately 100k potential Democratic voters).

It's important to remember that around 90% of the Democratic vote exists in the denser portions of Clark and Washoe. That one dark green district that covers the vast, vast majority of the state is only 1/15 of the likely Democratic vote - so unless one candidate is just running away with it in these communities, it's not a big deal or indicative of anything.

These rural precincts are important though because they get at least 1 SDE so they can make a difference if one candidate sweeps them.

Interesting map btw.

[Holmes]

Congrats Data for Progress.

[Holmes]

https://twitter.com/SteveKornacki/status/1231313073039958023

Bernie is apparently the candidate who unites Progressives and Moderates, the one who can win in both "lanes."

Losing 66-23 to other candidates does not make him the choice of moderates. It means that moderate vote is split between multiple candidates, but it's pretty clear that he's not the choice of moderates.

Well Biden is losing 67-22 so he is also not the choice if moderates.

[Holmes]

Well congrats to Biden on his first second place victory but still losing by 20-30% depending on what metric you’re looking at.

[Holmes]

Does anyone know if the early votes are already included in those NYT numbers ?

Yes, early votes are included in first and second round vote totals.

[Holmes]

So if Bernie's numbers hold up with Latinos, does this say anything about how he may fare in Arizona's primaries? I don't believe we've seen very much polling done there.  

I’d say Sanders is the favorite in Arizona at this time, tbh. And Texas is probably looking really good for him too.

He may not be as DOA in Florida as some polls show..... but he might still lose the state though.

[Holmes]

3.500 votes in (first preference), with 1.5% of the precincts.

That still points to a 250.000 to 300.000 turnout, which would be pretty cool.

But the numbers probably won’t hold up as more precincts come in ...

There are quite a bit of nearly empty precincts tbf.

[Holmes]

Pete with a 1 CCD lead in Douglas county, aka Tender Branson's new favorite Nevada county.