How Does Trump Win the IA Caucus?

[Holmes]

Trump probably won't win it, and honestly, he doesn't need to. Coming in second is good enough, but a first place finish would probably seal the deal for his nomination.

Trump has a consistent 30-33% base in Iowa, at least lately, and he needs the evangelicals to not coalesce around a single candidate (like they are with Cruz). Santorum won Iowa in 2012 by racking up large margins in the northwest where all the fundies are. If evangelicals spread out their support, either by a late Carson, Huckabee or Santorum surge, Trump can squeeze through. But that's really out of his control. He doesn't seem too keen on attacking Cruz, probably because he wants him as his VP. I guess the only thing Trump's camp can do is make sure their supporters turn out to caucus.

[Holmes]

He needs to spend some money on GOTV.

He has the money, too. Are his advisers this stupid? Surely the campaign manager (an AFP veteran-having worked for AFP, I can attest that they know a little something or two about ground game and organizing)  must know that they need to up the game there.

His Iowa manager worked for Santorum 2012, so surely there is a plan. We'll see more in January.

Honestly did Santorum and his team even do anything in Iowa to win or did they just fall ass backwards into a win? Serious question.