Ontario 2014 (June 12th)

[Holmes]

Forum, projected

Timmins-James Bay? Haha.

[Holmes]

The PC's "base" in TJB is Timmins. But it's not much of a base for the party in the least. They'd have more luck trying to get Kenora.

[Holmes]

Bisson signs starting to appear every fifty meters in town here, already really oversaturated. PC candidate's signs are also popping up but not as much. Liberals nowhere to be found and it will stay that way most likely.

lol@ the comments on local newspaper websites. They always seem to attract the worst people, although Timmins' politics aren't that great to begin with.

[Holmes]

Just so we're clear, no matter how hard Whynne tries, the Liberals will not be magically to the left of the NDP.

The Liberals want to be the left-wing and right-wing alternatives to the NDP at the same time.

[Holmes]

A win in Oshawa would mean at least opposition status, but I don't put much stock in a poll of that nature this far out.

[Holmes]

Probably pulled them out of his ass because he probably has an agenda.

[Holmes]

Well, that is the reason she wants so many debates.

[Holmes]

The PC candidate in Timmins-James Bay doesn't even speak French...

Oy vey.

If he wants to win, he needs to not only carry Timmins, but by a large margin. Everything outside of the city is francophone and native.

That said, people are tired of Gilles. I don't blame them. He's a good MP, but it's been 24 years. He'll get just under 50%.

[Holmes]

His government will be a disaster. Well, at the very least, I'm on my way out of the province anyway.

[Holmes]

There will probably be some Tory gains in Toronto. The ones they were supposed to win in 2011 before the Rob Ford scare spooked a lot of voters to the Liberals.

[Holmes]

A three-way race is much more fun than the Libs and Tories going back and forth in the polls.

[Holmes]

Speaking of Bisson (kind of), Liberal signs have actually started to appear here in Timmins. A small amount, mind you, but there's some sort of presence now. Apparently the candidate is from Thunder Bay.

[Holmes]

Star looks like it might endorse Wynne as the True Progressive (TM).

So bold.

[Holmes]

It's so weird how the Liberals always pull ahead. What's up with that? I mean, I live in an area where they're a distant third and I guess the residents here aren't "average Ontario voters" in that sense, so it's tough for me to understand. Is it a "devil you know" sort of deal?

[Holmes]

So disappointing that the provincial Liberals have such a hold on Thunder Bay.

[Holmes]

Well, Trinity-Spadina is gone. Davenport too, it seems. Liberals in second in Timmins-James Bay. Freaky sh**t.

[Holmes]

Mmhmm. NDP increases its voter share compared to last time but gets trounced in Toronto. Sigh. Toronto.

[Holmes]

NDP with a good showing in Brampton-Springdale. I know they targeted that area but I guess it wasn't enough against the Liberal deluge. Decent showing in York-West and London North Centre too, fwiw.

[Holmes]

French TV mentioed Vic Fedeli, MPP for Nipissing as a leadership hopeful (he is a very popular former mayor of North Bay).

If we take the candidates last time, Frank Klees retired (and his seat was lost) and Randy Hillier is still a joke. It would leave Christine Elliot, but I suppose she might pass as she lost her husband recently (Jim Flaherty).

Another one from North Bay?

[Holmes]

Beaches flips back to the Liberals

Difference is 40 votes with 80 polls still outstanding. Wait it out. It's not Davenport-level lost.

[Holmes]

Yes, much of inner Toronto is still way too early to safely call. Still, it is interesting that the NDP have polled better in York West than Trinity-Spadina; the nature of the provincial dipper vote in the city has shifted considerably of late.

At least the York-West vote makes sense and is just following the NDP "trend" (for lack of a better word) in that riding. The downtown area's shift against the NDP is quite strange and disappointing, though. The NDP wasn't too hot in its best Scarborough ridings tonight, either.

[Holmes]

Pretty good for the NDP, but they really need to remember that it is possible to appeal to both Windsor and inner Toronto: the results there are a disaster.

Indeed. Their populism seems to be a direct trade. Southwestern ON for downtown TO.

And Oshawa. The PC incumbent lost 47-31 against NDP, which is very shocking (I ws of the opinion than Oshawa was lost forever for NDP).

Sid Ryan's been a pretty disastrous candidate, imo.

[Holmes]

Pretty good for the NDP, but they really need to remember that it is possible to appeal to both Windsor and inner Toronto: the results there are a disaster.

Indeed. Their populism seems to be a direct trade. Southwestern ON for downtown TO.

And Oshawa. The PC incumbent lost 47-31 against NDP, which is very shocking (I ws of the opinion than Oshawa was lost forever for NDP).

Me too. And it took the NDP forever to find a candidate there too!

It might well turnout to be a good policy decision for the NDP. There are a lot of promising results for the party. Just look at all the close 2nd place finishes.

New doors have been opened but if we keep hemorrhaging in Toronto, then there's no path to victory.

[Holmes]

NDP back ahead in Beaches.

Earl, man, go for a walk, spend time with your daughter, watch an episode of Orphan Black, anything, the results will be tight until the end. You're not getting any younger. Think of your blood pressure!

[Holmes]

NDP back ahead in Beaches.

Earl, man, go for a walk, spend time with your daughter, watch an episode of Orphan Black, anything, the results will be tight until the end. You're not getting any younger. Think of your blood pressure!

Hey, this is it for me


I can't believe how anti-NDP the CBC is. This is their best showing since 1990, but they're basically openly calling on her to resign.

Yup. Next election, they need to focus on Thunder Bay and Toronto. There might be Liberal fatigue by then, but even so, Wynne really caters to Toronto and GTA voters, so who knows.