UK Election 2010

[k-onmmunist]

Some predictions about the coming election from me.

I think Labour will probably have more support by the time the election is held (probably May 2010) and I think there is a serious chance of the Conservatives winning, but with a hung parliament. I think it's safe to say Labour are doomed and won't be holding on to their majority, but there's a chance they could hold in with a minority. Even so, I doubt they'd last long after that and they may not even be able to form a government.

If you look at the polls, the Conservatives have been predicted to win in every single one of them since January 2008 as well as for many before that (With the exception of a surge in Labour support in the first 6 months of 2007), and I seriously doubt Labour have any chance of holding on to this one.

I also think this will be a good election for minor parties, especially the Lib Dems. I think there is a good chance of them roping at least 80 seats, which would give them credibility as a force in British politics for the first time since the rapid death of the party in the 20s. I also think UKIP will win seats, probably at least 3 and at the most 10, and I think there's a good chance of the BNP squeezing out a seat too.

[k-onmmunist]

On another note, does anyone know what date the debates are being held, or hasn't it been announced yet?

[k-onmmunist]

I think there's a serious chance of the Liberal Democrats becoming the new kingmaker in British politics. If it splits three ways, it'll be very hard for any party to get an overall majority. Which means it could be like the situation in the early 20th century, though eventually one of them will have to decline. Could this be the end of Labour as one of the big two parties?

[k-onmmunist]

He didn't specify mention it in the speech today though.

Personally, I'm not too keen on a debate. It makes UK elections too Presidential and for a start "Dave" has a natural advantage.

I'm not very keen either considering Brown and Cameron already debate alot in the commons... this kinda just makes it more "showbiz". Not to mention it being on Sky, it should be on BBC and/or ITV to be fair. But, whether or not I want a debate, Sky have said it's gonna happen and it'd be worse for Brown if he said no.

I actually kinda like it. Anything that makes our government more transparent is good in my eyes.

[k-onmmunist]

Nah, Mandelson for Labour leader.

Also, I don't see why UKIP won't win at least one seat, given their current popularity.

[k-onmmunist]

Labour will have a new leader after the election - it's too late to force Brown out now and it's questionable that doing so would work out well. It's worth noting that dumping Beck for Steinmeier didn't do the SPD much good.

I wouldn't be surprised if they got one before the election.

[k-onmmunist]

Labour will have a new leader after the election - it's too late to force Brown out now and it's questionable that doing so would work out well. It's worth noting that dumping Beck for Steinmeier didn't do the SPD much good.

I wouldn't be surprised if they got one before the election.

Neither would I, but I imagine Brown would be to stubborn to go even if every single one (except himself of course) of Labour's 300-odd MPs were calling him to resign.

Yeah, sounds like Brown to me.

[k-onmmunist]

Brown has agreed in principle to a leaders' debate. The issue now is the details.

Awesome. I await it with anticipation.

[k-onmmunist]

Gordo's good eye's apparently got problems now. Poor guy :/

As much as I dislike his governance of the nation, and feel he's completely out of his depth, I do feel sorry for him.

[k-onmmunist]

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Ok, now i'm slightly worried about Barking considering the BNP already got 17% there in '05...

Ooh, let's all panic, the BNP might win ONE seat!!!!!!1111

[k-onmmunist]

The BNP obsession that many people in the media and the chattering classes generally is starting to get a little irritating. The BNP didn't lead in any local authority in the Euros and won't have led in any constituencies either. The correct thing to do actually was to ignore them, though we are (alas) past that stage now. They remain far weaker than far-right parties in most of the rest of Europe. A little perspective is not a bad thing.

That's what I've tried saying. I don't like the BNP either, but the moderate hero/socialist obsession with them on this board annoys me.

[k-onmmunist]

UKIP will probably make big gains next year.

[k-onmmunist]

Ugh. This is why I hate FPTP.

[k-onmmunist]

Snowden was the best member of Labour ever.

[k-onmmunist]

Whoever designed this (crudely Photoshop'd) ad deserves some kind of recognition...

LOL.

[k-onmmunist]

If Cameron stays true to his word, things will be fine. Otherwise, we may be in a for a rather rough future.

[k-onmmunist]

Personally, I think the Tories will be back down next year, and I think we could end up with a hung parliament as a result.

[k-onmmunist]

Oh dear. Looks like they're in a spot of trouble.

[k-onmmunist]

i am confident that the BNP will win in 2010 and make Britain great again!

Come off the weed.

[k-onmmunist]

It's looking more and more like a hung parliament.

[k-onmmunist]

The more a hung parliament is talked about, the less likely it is to happen.

Shame. It'd be interesting, given we haven't had one for quite a while.

[k-onmmunist]

It's looking more and more like a hung parliament.

Guess who's going to disagree And not simply for partisan reasons. The belief that the Tories need a 10+% lead to secure a majority of 1 is absurd. Figures are not as rigid as that even with an inbuilt Labour advantage. As long as votes are stacked in the right areas, as Labour found out in 2005 you can get a majority with a low % share and % lead. Such is the FPTP system.

And for the record ComRes showed a 10pt lead. Exactly a year before it was 1pt. The Tories were polling on par with this in the polls in April/May post Expensesgate and it translated into quite a performance.

Tory support has fallen lately, IIRC. Also, it's going to take a pretty large swing to take Labour down. Not that I'm denying it could happen. In fact, I wouldn't be the least bit surprised if it did.

[k-onmmunist]

Purty.

[k-onmmunist]

How many UKIP members are on this site any way? I've noticed a Tory but taht's it.

Former UKIP. I'm now a Libertarian, but I'm still the biggest EU hater on here.

[k-onmmunist]

UKIP will win in a landslide. The people of Britain are waking up and seeing that Westminster is full of reptillians.

Not funny.