UK local by-elections, 2023

[JimJamUK]

Well firstly thank you very much for starting this!

It has to be said that the way Britain Elects reports these results in elects by thirds/halves authorities has long been a bugbear of mine, however. The most relevant and interesting comparison is with the last time the ward was contested, and that is how it was done the previous time these elections were collated on here prior to the 2019 GE.

It’s a difficult one. The comparison to the last time the seat was up can be better in some situations like when the incumbent had a large personal vote (most important for independents) so is the technically ‘correct’ way of doing it, but in practice a comparison to the most recent regular election offers a better measure of progress and is less misleading to uninformed viewers (showing the Tories doing worse than 2021 is not showing much, but in the Plymouth cases one performance is better than 2022 and the other one worse).

[JimJamUK]

Based on historical results it would be pretty appalling for Labour if this isn't a Labour gain, although I suppose the Yorkshire Party could be in with a shout if the protest vote is strong enough.

Generally agree, though Keppel does not strike me as the sort of ward that ‘should’ have elected 2/3 Labour councillors in 2021 given its previously strong UKIP/BNP vote and Thorpe Hesley (1/2 of the ward) being one of the most middle class parts of Rotherham council. Therefore, it may see a smaller than expected swing or as you say a protest vote for one of the smaller parties. Also, this is Rotherham council, where Labour have a rather dodgy reputation and by-elections can amplify this (that said, they did well in a December 2021 by-election so maybe not).

[JimJamUK]

Lewis Baston wrote an article making that point.

He makes an interesting point about the difference between Orthodox and more liberal Jews when it comes to voting. It certainly makes sense when you look abroad eg; America and Israel, and I would assume the same applies here, but has there actually ever been any polling or analysis than finds a significant difference here in the UK?

[JimJamUK]

Surely with STV you could just redo the original election count, distributing the former incumbents preferences?

But if a party did not have any further candidates then they would automatically lose a seat.

[JimJamUK]

Labour’s by-election performance continues to look a world away from a 20% lead in the polls. At the very least, we can say that their vote is very soft (not shocking when you consider how volatile the electorate is these days) and is therefore able to drift in all directions depending on whether they run the council, other political parties are better placed to win, and who actually bothers to campaign. These effects will diminish when it’s nationwide local elections rather than by-elections, and will especially do so at a general election, but still, I do think the polls are overestimating Labour’s lead to some extent.

[JimJamUK]

- The Labour lead is partially inflated by 2019 Tory voters answering "don't know" in polls but will come back to the Tories in a vote. Personally I think in an general election Labour tomorrow would probably win by 13-16.

But you wouldn’t expect such people to vote in local elections, especially by-elections. If you’re unhappy with your party enough to say you wouldn’t currently vote for them, you’re probably not part of the small minority of people still voting for them at every opportunity The issue is that Labour rarely get the sort of swing to them the national polls imply, while the Tories tend to do poorly (but not as poorly as the polls imply). As I said, some of this will be down to by-elections factors that won’t be replicated in the local elections of a general election, but even then I’m not sure current voting intention is quite as dire for the Conservatives as polling suggests.

[JimJamUK]

This result means the "Green wave" from Stroud has reached the very edge of Gloucester.

I wonder if they might start to have a go in the city itself?

(especially given Labour's endemic and long standing underperformance there at local level)

The Lib Dems success in the city means it will probably be hard for the Greens to get much of a foothold in Gloucester. The Greens are well organised in Stroud and the demographics are largely very favourable to them which is not the case in Gloucester.

[JimJamUK]

Labour result underwhelming, but its actually not historically a safe area for them.

Labour have had mostly very underwhelming by-elections in London the past year. Sadiq Khan’s unpopularity, the fact Labour control most London councils, and the smaller swing to Labour in London means that by-elections have looked nothing like the national polling would suggest.

[JimJamUK]

By-election in Cambridge saw a Conservative gain from Labour, their first councillor in over a decade (and their first in the wards over 50 year history). Overwhelmingly attributed to the proposed congestion charge of £5+ a day for all vehicles in the entire council area, which was flagged back in May when there was a very big swing to the Conservatives (especially in the more working class suburbs) despite their otherwise awful performance nationally. While the goal of funding public transport in austere times is laudable, the method of doing so being complete political poison does not seem wise or sustainable (if Cambridge can elect a Tory in the current climate, then numerous otherwise unthinkable area could too).

[JimJamUK]

And are we so sure that students are very heavily Green leaning compared to the population of the wards at large? The national student vote clearly has a substantial lean towards Labour over the Greens, and it’s not clear that the Greens strong campaigning in Bristol would be able to engage these voters given their weaker links with the local community.

[JimJamUK]

why do elections in the City of London almost always feature solely independents?

It’s worth noting that the candidates are elected as independents, but that doesn’t mean many of them aren’t members of a political party (in one case they were an elected Conservative councillor elsewhere in the country).

[JimJamUK]

Lancashire County Council; Burnley Central West

Green 630 (32.4%, +1.4)
Lab 583 (30.0%, +14.7)
Con 574 (29.5%, +5.7)
Lib Dem 156 (8.0%, -3.1)
(changes from 2021)

Green hold

Burnley; Trinity

Green 347 (+2.1 on 2021)
Lab 163 (+6.1 on 2021)
Con 73 (-2.2 on 2021)

Green hold

Interesting that the swing was noticeably different in the country council ward to (one) of its constituents district wards. it’s quite a demographically and especially politically polarised county council ward and seems to have gotten even more so yesterday.

[JimJamUK]

There's an interesting by-election happening in the SNP ward of Motherwell South East and Ravenscraig on the 16th. Because Scotland elects councils via STV with multi-member wards, the party that topped the ballot in 2022 often ends up picking up easy seats when councillors picked as the second or third member (from other parties) resign.

But here, an SNP councillor has resigned, prompting a head-to-head race between them and Labour, who held 3/4 of the ward’s seats as recently as 2012, but reduced to 1/4. It's a ward that should be more favourable to Labour under current polling, so another temperature check on whether the dramatic shift in Scottish polling is being borne out.

Although the change to the AV voting system means that a 2nd place Labour can do very well on unionist preferences (which given the SNP’s current polling, means almost everywhere Labour can come 2nd to them).

[JimJamUK]

Good result for Labour in Doncaster, even if its a 2021 baseline.

The 2021 baseline is actually already very good for Labour (they weren’t beating the Tories 2/1 in the GE, more likely the Tories were beating them). Also, Rossington includes quite a few newish middle class estates while Bawtry doesn’t have mining history, so it should have a bit more of a core Tory vote than most of Doncaster.