UK General Discussion: Rishecession

[JimJamUK]

I think the Tories are operating on Scott Morrison Logic, which is never good for one's political health. Everyone thought 2021 would be the election out here, then all the scandals came out about Morrison's government and he decided to wait as long as he could in the hope the damage would be lessened.

Like Morrison, it seems more vibes than actual policy changes (including the Labo(u)r opposition trying not to be very distinctive on the issue).

[JimJamUK]

YouGov has Labour leading 47% to the Tories on only 20%. Reform on 12%.

Rather different to the 40% to 26% vote indicated by the MRP data…

[JimJamUK]

Urgent changes needed to protect Welsh devolution, independent commission finds

Shock horror, we think something is wrong so the only solutions are devolution, more devolution or even more devolution.

[JimJamUK]

So far there have been eight by-elections since the supposed Reform surge in the polls that saw them overtake the Greens. There is no evidence whatsoever that they are going to do well at the next election. There is all the evidence to suggest that this surge is largely the result of 65+ online samples disproportionately consisting of outraged dog pfps.

An important point, it looks like unrepresentative samples (too many politically engaged right wingers) rather than say turnout is the main culprit for the over polling of Reform (their demographic support doesn’t look particularly low turnout, and as we saw with UKIP it can actually be high turnout).

[JimJamUK]

I am really not trying to start the mother of all arguments but was I the only one slightly surprised by the nature of the article by the Chief Rabbi in the Telegraph about Gaza

Probably the most sensible thing you’ll read in the Telegraph all year.

[JimJamUK]

Presented without comment.

https://twitter.com/thetimes/status/1757283463462535636?s=61&t=I1DE8_cg7gmZr...

[JimJamUK]

The vote was for an immediate ceasefire. Not an end to the war. Israel can take out military targets in a manner that doesn't flatten Gaza, kill thousands and leave people effectively starving.

But can they really? Gaza is a very densely populated area where Hamas need to be cleared out street by street, tunnel by tunnel. They have purposefully embedded themselves in civilian areas in order to deter Israel from attacking and making their invasion as costly as possible.

[JimJamUK]

A 61 year old man and his wife from County Down have been arrested over historical child sex offences. I am posting so posters are aware of the story, I would be very cautious posting any speculation beyond that.

[JimJamUK]

Matthew Parris: "I'm a sane moderate voice, the reasonable face of the Tories".
Also Matthew Parris: "We can't afford all these old people, let's do Logan's Run IRL".

It's stuff like this that hardens my skepticism about assisted dying. I just don't fully trust this country wouldn't head into a quasi-Canadian "euthanise grandma to save ✨our NHS✨" mode, somewhere down the line.

The Canadian overreach was significantly influenced by the courts first ruling that it was a constitutional right for the terminally ill, and then expanding this ruling to include those who aren’t even terminally ill. We thankfully don’t have such judicial overreach here, and as a supporter of assisted dying for the genuinely terminally ill, the reticence of our politicians to legalise it despite widespread public support suggests they wouldn’t rush towards a Canadian style system anytime soon.

FWIW, I’m not sure legalising it for the terminally ill would lead to a slippery slope. It would normalise it which could lead to further liberalisation, but at the same time keeping things as they are risks a more sweeping bill in the future getting support from people who mainly want it just for the terminally ill. See the Northern Ireland abortion law for an example of this (the law was so restrictive that MPs overwhelmingly voted for a bill more liberal than the one we have in GB).

[JimJamUK]

Wasn't she seen as a Kinnockite (well, Soft Left anyway) candidate in the 1989 by-election? I think she always retained the troublemaking instincts of her IMG days. She nominated both John McDonnell and Jeremy Corbyn for the leadership IIRC.

At the 2017 election she presented herself as a Corbynite fighting the Tory-lite Lib Dems. I think she still considers herself Labour inclined, but it’s hard to tell since her output seems to consist almost entirely of hard Brexit and hard unionism these days.

[JimJamUK]

Also Humza Yousaf:
https://twitter.com/TheScotsman/status/1780668002490278329

I see the Scottish Greens are doing a great job getting the Scottish government to actually do stuff on climate change.

[JimJamUK]

Meanwhile, our PM was genuinely scraping beyond the bottom of the barrel yesterday - scaring sick and disabled people to get a few headlines in the captive right wing press, when at this point nothing he says on the topic is actually going to come into effect before the GE anyway.

A lot of what he said could form the starting point of sensible changes, but given it will inevitably end up as a savings exercise it wouldn’t in practice. The discussion by Sunak/the media that PIP needs more focus on adaptations/treatment rather than cash ignores the fact that this support ‘should’ already be provided by the NHS and Adult Social Care, and that PIP is de facto an income replacement benefit for disabled people who cannot work (and cannot live a decent life on ESA/Universal Credit alone).

[JimJamUK]

Poulter was a health minister under Cameron, and is still standing down at the election so he’s a more credible/damaging defector than Wakeford, if we’re drawing comparisons.

Quite a coup for Starmer, and Streeting - who seems to have taken credit. When even Tory MPs are attacking the state of the NHS, with May 2nd just around the corner, it’s just a dire look for the gov.

Sunak's on the pre-locals media round tomorrow, which does make the timing feel rather precise.

Poulter has previously expressed support for pay rises during NHS strikes a couple of times, but otherwise didn’t seem especially moderate or outspoken to the degree that a defection looked likely. Then again, Wakeford wasn’t either.

[JimJamUK]

Alba are demanding the SNP stand aside in multiple Holyrood seats if they are to support Yousaf as first minister. Given Alba only have 1 incumbent by defection, and presumably don’t want no-hoper seats, this would mean the SNP surrendering constituencies they have incumbent MSPs in. I’m sure fellow posters can guess how likely the SNP are to agree to such a demand.

[JimJamUK]

On Laura Kuenssberg’s Sunday show, Alex Salmond claimed polling is predicting Alba will get 20 seats in the next Scottish Parliament election. Given actual polling has them on 2-3% on the list vote (aka 0-1 seats), I’m rather sceptical.

[JimJamUK]

On Laura Kuenssberg’s Sunday show, Alex Salmond claimed polling is predicting Alba will get 20 seats in the next Scottish Parliament election. Given actual polling has them on 2-3% on the list vote (aka 0-1 seats), I’m rather sceptical.

Of course if LK was any use, she would have asked him for a citation supporting this dubious claim.

He was referencing supposed polling showing him getting 15% as preferred first minister, but seemed to jump from that to confidently getting 20 seats.

[JimJamUK]

The reality is that ordinary members of the public with views not too far from Elphicke are switching to Labour at the moment, it’s just that socially conservative but otherwise not too right wing Conservative MPs up to now were absolutely not. Beyond her P&O stance, which may well have been constituency rather than ideologically based, she had a background in housing policy and is quite unhappy with the governments current proposals and lack of action. Labour on the other hand have made housing one of their few clear differences with the government and a lot of not notably left wing people in that space are warming to Labour as a consequence.

[JimJamUK]

Suella Braverman has called for lifting restrictions on benefits for larger families, means testing benefits for wealthy pensioners, and raising the minimum wage.

Defection to Labour incoming? 😜

[JimJamUK]

Unsurprisingly, the Tories dumped a load of effluent on Labour's newest MP recruit just in time for the Sunday papers. Though the main response of many seems to have been "so you knew about all this for years and did absolutely nothing about it?"

Particularly since it wasn’t just her ordinary politics, but an allegation that she tried to get a minister to interfere in her husbands trial.

[JimJamUK]

Parliament has voted by a majority of 1 to exclude MPs accused of serious offences from point of arrest rather than only when charged. The deciding vote was Natalie Elphicke, who presumably would have voted against if she had not defected.

[JimJamUK]

Priti Patel?

[JimJamUK]

At least some Tories now seem to be advocating wholesale destrudtion of our further education sector - one of our few success stories recently - and all just to grab a few newspaper headlines.

Nihilistic vandalism.

They are advocating the elimination of less useful degrees by keeping the real terms cut in university funding and getting rid of many international students. The problem is that courses judged socially useful and which provide a better return on investment for students are also often the more expensive courses that rely on cross-subsidising from the fees of cheaper to run courses as well as international students paying higher tuition fees.

[JimJamUK]

https://twitter.com/matt_dathan/status/1793016394226835924?s=61&t=I1DE8_cg7g...
Things continue to go well for the party of law and order. The plan to make fewer arrests is on top of judges giving more lenient sentences and a planned early release of criminals (which applies to not just small time criminals but also some very serious ones).