French presidential election, 2022

[JimJamUK]

Is there any indications of how the legislative elections will go? On paper you would think En Marche is less popular than it was in 2017, but the Republicans don’t look any more popular, the Socialists are in disarray (but like the Republicans held up well in the regional elections), the National Rally looks weakened, Zemmour’s Party doesn’t seem to have any organisation etc. Essentially it looks like everyone should be standing still or doing worse in the 1st round except Zemmour’s party, but people are still going to be faced with a narrow choice in the 2nd round (and given there’s a lot more vote splitting between the right wing parties, presumably they could do quite well if there’s more 2nd round consolidation than 2017, particularly if the Republican candidate gets through).

[JimJamUK]

What’s Roussel’s policy on Russia?

[JimJamUK]

I can't see Taubira endorsing Hidalgo if she endorses considering how Hidalgo and PS killed her campaign by successfully trying to get Mayors to not endorse Taubira.

I mean, was Taubira expecting the Socialist Party to support their mayors endorsing a rival candidate?

[JimJamUK]

Who are the 1% of people who chose Hollande? I don’t hate the guy, but…best ever? Really?

Maybe the 1 elected official who nominated Hollande for president this year got polled?

[JimJamUK]

What are Le Pen’s economic policies these days? Would she be considered to Macron’s left economically, or is there still a Poujadist streak that is more populist/all things to all people?

[JimJamUK]

How is recent unrest in Corsica affecting the race? Which way would soft Corsican nats (regionalists etc) vote?

I can’t answer the question directly, but it’s worth noting that Corsica was Le Pen’s best region in 2017 with 49% of the vote, so it looks very likely to outright vote for her this time given she’s not going to be stuck on 34% of the nationwide vote.

[JimJamUK]

The European far right (and associated travellers) have consistently done best among the middle age groups. The very youngest tend to be the most socially liberal but this is balanced by lack of partisanship. Pensioners tend to wary of the far right for obvious reasons and tend to be most attached to the traditional parties/the establishment more generally, so usually end up the weakest group for the far right. Its only a few countries elsewhere like the UK that have a clear linear age gradient (and you'd be hard pressed to call UKIP a far right party anyways).