Could Mastriano be the Gillum of 2022

[sting in the rafters]

Maybe. Shapiro can do well with those SWPA and NEPA >65 dinocrats, but the problem is that I'm afraid the fundamentals are just too bad right now. Those <45 Dems/non-partisan registereds in Lehigh Valley/Philly burbs are checked out and Rs are fired up as hell.

[sting in the rafters]

Maybe. Shapiro can do well with those SWPA and NEPA >65 dinocrats, but the problem is that I'm afraid the fundamentals are just too bad right now. Those <45 Dems/non-partisan registereds in Lehigh Valley/Philly burbs are checked out and Rs are fired up as hell.

What about those suburban SEPA voters who traditionally vote R. If Mastriano bombs with them he has no path at victory.

They all voted HRC in 2016. Very common misconception about SEPA, those "traditional D-Rs" thought Bush was too far to the right for them, and the younger generation under them is downright turboliberal. NE Chester County aren't "swing voters", they're the Democratic base. Trust me dude the type of voters you're talking about are those who have the "In This Town No Child Fights Alone" bumper stickers. I've actually been doing a voter registration data analysis/warehousing effort going back to '98. I'd publish it if I could figure out how to put it on a place other than pastebin or converting it to pdf without getting doxxed. The numbers are..... no bueno. No bueno man.


What's really gonna sink them is Philly. If Tidewater/South Jersey were any indications as well as anecdotal, black voters are checked out rn too. Ds are forgetting they don't vote D because it's "the right thing to do", they do it because they think it'll materially help them. And how the f____ are they gonna think that w/how f___ed the economy is rn? They won't vote R, but a significant portion will sure as s____ stay home.

[sting in the rafters]

Maybe. Shapiro can do well with those SWPA and NEPA >65 dinocrats, but the problem is that I'm afraid the fundamentals are just too bad right now. Those <45 Dems/non-partisan registereds in Lehigh Valley/Philly burbs are checked out and Rs are fired up as hell.

What about those suburban SEPA voters who traditionally vote R. If Mastriano bombs with them he has no path at victory.

They all voted HRC in 2016. Very common misconception about SEPA, those "traditional D-Rs" thought Bush was too far to the right for them, and the younger generation under them is downright turboliberal. NE Chester County aren't "swing voters", they're the Democratic base. Trust me dude the type of voters you're talking about are those who have the "In This Town No Child Fights Alone" bumper stickers.

Oh there’s plenty of room for him to fall. If Mastriano is doing as badly as Wagner or even Barletta, both of which did worse than Trump 2020 in SEPA, he’s finished.

Think about the difference in base turnout between 2018 and 2022 my man. And even so, ask yourself if your hypothetical swing voter, whom is most certainly over 50 by now, is comfortable with fascism if they think it means lower gas prices and cinnamon life not being 4 bucks a box.

[sting in the rafters]

Maybe. Shapiro can do well with those SWPA and NEPA >65 dinocrats, but the problem is that I'm afraid the fundamentals are just too bad right now. Those <45 Dems/non-partisan registereds in Lehigh Valley/Philly burbs are checked out and Rs are fired up as hell.

What about those suburban SEPA voters who traditionally vote R. If Mastriano bombs with them he has no path at victory.

They all voted HRC in 2016. Very common misconception about SEPA, those "traditional D-Rs" thought Bush was too far to the right for them, and the younger generation under them is downright turboliberal. NE Chester County aren't "swing voters", they're the Democratic base. Trust me dude the type of voters you're talking about are those who have the "In This Town No Child Fights Alone" bumper stickers.

Oh there’s plenty of room for him to fall. If Mastriano is doing as badly as Wagner or even Barletta, both of which did worse than Trump 2020 in SEPA, he’s finished.

Think about the difference in base turnout between 2018 and 2022 my man. And even so, ask yourself if your hypothetical swing voter, whom is most certainly over 50 by now, is comfortable with fascism if they think it means lower gas prices and cinnamon life not being 4 bucks a box.

It wasn’t just base turnout. It was crossover support that got Wolf and Casey across, and this is the kind of support Shapiro could get even in a strong wave year. It’s hard to imagine the PA 2018 electorate was Clinton+15.

Also, governor races have been decoupled enough from the national environment to allow people like Hickenlooper, Wolf, Hogan, or Sununu to pull across the finish line in bad years for their party.

And those swing voters and even base R voters were still willing to break from candidates like Steve King, Kris Kobach, or Roy Moore, all in way redder states or districts than PA is.

Dude I'm not saying it's a lock but any R, even Mastriano is favored rn over Shapiro bc the fundamentals are so bad that candidate quality kinda goes out the window. Again, are they going to give a s___ that he's a fascist when inflation is thru the roof? That's literally how fascism came to power historically in the first place? And again, VA/NJ showed the same super-heated rural turnout. If that was enough for Youngkin and almost for Ciattarelli (despite his campaign kinda mailing it in bc polls were showing non-competitive), what's it gonna be in PA where the population is much older and whiter?