Is there any evidence this phenomenon is unique to Democrats? Take
06 exit polls for example (R on left D on right)National Bush Approval:43/57
House NPV:44/52
Margin:R+6
AZ-SEN
Bush approval:46/53
Result:53/43
Margin:R+17
MI-SEN
Bush approval:36/63
Result:41/57
Margin:R+11
VA-SEN
Bush Approval:45/54
Result:49/50
Margin:R+8
TEN-SEN
Bush Approval:48/50
Result:51/48
Margin:R+5
MO-SEN
Bush Approval:46/53
Result:47.5/49.5
Margin:R+4.5
MT-SEN
Bush Approval:47/52
Result:48/49
Margin:R+4
Now, some like Casey/Brown/Klobuchar all performed in line with fundamentals, but those are politicians with documented crossover appeal (e.g. Brown winning by high single-digits in ‘18 despite Trump having a positive approval in OH exit polls).
What does this mean for 2022? In today’s polarized climate, I believe it’s in line for a significant portion of partisans which disapprove of the incumbent president’s job performance to remain faithful during the midterm. Perhaps this is another indicator that base turnout/expansion is increasingly more important than voter persuasion, however it’s hard to tell with the inherently small sample size of election cycles.
