Remarkable Democratic overperformance of PRES approval in Senate races

[MT Treasurer]

There have been quite a few polls recently showing Biden with catastrophic approval numbers in states with competitive Senate races, yet Democratic candidates for Senate holding up surprisingly well in those exact states, e.g.:

GA-AJC:

Biden approval: -27 (34/61)
D lead in Senate race: -3
-> 24-point overperformance

GA-Quinnipiac:

Biden approval: -23 (36/59)
D lead in Senate race: -1
-> 22-point overperformance

AZ-DFP:

Biden approval: -16 (43/57)
D lead in Senate race: +2
-> 18-point overperformance

It’s easy to dismiss this by pointing out that the undecideds must be leaning overwhelmingly Republican (much like in the GCB polls), and that is almost certainly true. However, even that cannot explain the entire discrepancy, which in fact is not some entirely new phenomenon — I went back to the 2014 exit polls (which are still available on NBC) and compared Obama's approval on election night 2014 to the Democratic margins in the Senate races, and you’ll quickly observe the same pattern:

NC
 
Obama approval: -13 (43/56)
D Senate margin: -2
-> 11-point overperformance

CO

Obama approval: -14 (42/56)
D Senate margin: -2
-> 12-point overperformance

GA

Obama approval: -15 (42/57)
D Senate margin: -8
-> 7-point overperformance

AK

Obama approval: -20 (39/59)
D Senate margin: -2
-> 18-point overperformance

NH

Obama approval: -13 (43/56)
D Senate margin: +3
-> 16-point overperformance

AR

Obama approval: -38 (30/68)
D Senate margin: -17
-> 21-point overperformance

KS

Obama approval: 32/66 (-34)
'D' Senate margin: -11
-> 23-point overperformance

LA

Obama approval: -20 (39/59)
D Senate margin: -12 (runoff)
-> 8-point overperformance

KY

Obama approval: -32 (34/66)
D Senate margin: -15
-> 17-point overperformance

MI

Obama approval: +1 (50/49)
D Senate margin: +13
-> 12-point overperformance

MN

Obama approval: -5 (47/52)
D Senate margin: +10
-> 15-point overperformance

VA

Obama approval: -18 (40/58)
D Senate margin: +1
-> 19-point overperformance

WV

Obama approval: -52 (23/75)
D Senate margin: -28
-> 24-point overperformance

What do you make of this? Is this just the product of a large number of "soft" disapprovers of Biden/Obama who nonetheless lean strongly Democratic, i.e., a consequence of the Democratic base being more reliable than the Republican base (another sign of asymmetric polarization?). You did not see these kinds of overperformances on the Republican side in 2012 or 2018.

Imagine how lopsided any Republican majority in the Senate would be right now if Senate races generally matched presidential approval.

[coloradocowboi]

Everyone really needs to look closer at crabs. Plenty of Biden’s disapproval comes from groups that won’t be voting GOP under any circumstances. They dislike his inaction and lackluster approach to politics, but know that the alternative is worse. 2022 will be closer than ppl think

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

Everyone really needs to look closer at crabs. Plenty of Biden’s disapproval comes from groups that won’t be voting GOP under any circumstances. They dislike his inaction and lackluster approach to politics, but know that the alternative is worse. 2022 will be closer than ppl think

However these groups having low turnout can hurt dems a lot.
2014 was more due to turnout imbalance than independents voting Rep.

[SnowLabrador]

Everyone really needs to look closer at crabs. Plenty of Biden’s disapproval comes from groups that won’t be voting GOP under any circumstances. They dislike his inaction and lackluster approach to politics, but know that the alternative is worse. 2022 will be closer than ppl think

I'm one of these people.

[S019]

Everyone really needs to look closer at crabs. Plenty of Biden’s disapproval comes from groups that won’t be voting GOP under any circumstances. They dislike his inaction and lackluster approach to politics, but know that the alternative is worse. 2022 will be closer than ppl think

Well I agree, that’s why the GCB obviously will be nowhere near R+10-15, my personal prediction for months has been R+5.

[Unelectable Bystander]

While this seems to be becoming a pattern, these two circumstances are unique.
1. Georgia is extremely inflexible. The Quinn poll shows basically all Dems and republicans having decided already, and also 94(!!)% of independents already being decided. Thus, it appears Dems simply have a floor in Georgia that they will never eclipse regardless of the environment. This is likely the case in some states where no matter how bad the national environment is, the GOP won’t win a blowout there. This is seen in the cross tabs of black voters and young voters not loving Biden but still voting Dem. On the other hand, it still shows Walker in the lead with nearly everybody being decided, which is not good news for Warnock.

2. Data for Progress is a crap pollster. This poll even asks several liberal leading questions before polling the election. The same dynamic still applies though, because even when you over sample Dems you still end up with a low Biden approval.

I spoke about this regarding the GCB in the link below, but it’s also true about senate races. The dissatisfied Dems are the reason for the CURRENT difference between Biden approval and polling, but these people are overwhelmingly decided in the polls and will not provide any incremental polling increases. Undecideds tend to be moderate or conservative Biden disapproving independents, and there’s simply no reason think these people will break for democrats unless they begin liking Biden again.

The biggest metric to watch is the Dem incumbent vote share as the elections get closer, as this will show how many undecided independents are breaking their way. If none of these incumbents can crack 50%, they will probably lose due to low enthusiasm among liberals and high energy among conservatives.

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=479711.0

[Not Me, Us]

Everyone really needs to look closer at crabs. Plenty of Biden’s disapproval comes from groups that won’t be voting GOP under any circumstances. They dislike his inaction and lackluster approach to politics, but know that the alternative is worse. 2022 will be closer than ppl think

I'm one of these people.

I am as well. If I was asked by a pollster if I approved of Biden, I'd say no. Despite that, I'll be voting straight ticket D in 2022 and to reelect the President in 2024.

[xavier110]

Everyone really needs to look closer at crabs. Plenty of Biden’s disapproval comes from groups that won’t be voting GOP under any circumstances. They dislike his inaction and lackluster approach to politics, but know that the alternative is worse. 2022 will be closer than ppl think

I'm one of these people.

I am as well. If I was asked by a pollster if I approved of Biden, I'd say no. Despite that, I'll be voting straight ticket D in 2022 and to reelect the President in 2024.

Same. This attitude is especially true for those <45 years old. I disapprove because they control government but can’t do anything. And he’s done little to move that

[MATTROSE94]

Everyone really needs to look closer at crabs. Plenty of Biden’s disapproval comes from groups that won’t be voting GOP under any circumstances. They dislike his inaction and lackluster approach to politics, but know that the alternative is worse. 2022 will be closer than ppl think

I'm one of these people.

I am as well. If I was asked by a pollster if I approved of Biden, I'd say no. Despite that, I'll be voting straight ticket D in 2022 and to reelect the President in 2024.

Same. This attitude is especially true for those <45 years old. I disapprove because they control government but can’t do anything. And he’s done little to move that

If the Democrats didn’t screw up by nominating Cal Cunningham and Sara Gideon in 2020 and if they fought harder in Wisconsin and Pennsylvania in 2010, then more things would have gotten done in 2021 such as voting rights, packing the Supreme Court, and passing the BBB bill.

[Pollster]

The two-party system is a helluva drug.

[sting in the rafters]

Is there any evidence this phenomenon is unique to Democrats? Take 06 exit polls for example (R on left D on right)

National Bush Approval:43/57
House NPV:44/52
Margin:R+6

AZ-SEN
Bush approval:46/53
Result:53/43
Margin:R+17

MI-SEN
Bush approval:36/63
Result:41/57
Margin:R+11

VA-SEN
Bush Approval:45/54
Result:49/50
Margin:R+8

TEN-SEN
Bush Approval:48/50
Result:51/48
Margin:R+5

MO-SEN
Bush Approval:46/53
Result:47.5/49.5
Margin:R+4.5

MT-SEN
Bush Approval:47/52
Result:48/49
Margin:R+4

Now, some like Casey/Brown/Klobuchar all performed in line with fundamentals, but those are politicians with documented crossover appeal (e.g. Brown winning by high single-digits in ‘18 despite Trump having a positive approval in OH exit polls).

What does this mean for 2022? In today’s polarized climate, I believe it’s in line for a significant portion of partisans which disapprove of the incumbent president’s job performance to remain faithful during the midterm. Perhaps this is another indicator that base turnout/expansion is increasingly more important than voter persuasion, however it’s hard to tell with the inherently small sample size of election cycles.

[Pollster]

Is there any evidence this phenomenon is unique to Democrats? Take 06 exit polls for example (R on left D on right)

snip

Not unique to Democrats, but Democrats often see larger overperformances because their coalition is far more reliant on inelastic voters than Republicans', meaning they can afford to shed more favorability/job approval among voters who will still ultimately vote the party line. Basically Biden's approval among Black voters could be 60% but Dems will still get 85-90% of the Black vote, whereas if Bush's approval with secular midwesterners is only 35%, the GOP is not likely to break that.

The GOP saw much slimmer overperformances (and even underperformances in some places) of Trump's numbers because his appeal was so limited to a point that many people don't fully appreciate, and the people he appealed to were uniquely well-distributed across the country in a way that has already been discussed ad nauseum. You can even start to see hints of this in 2006, though to a much less dramatic and effective extent.

[Matty]

Yep.

White voters are far more likely to punish bad politicians than black voters.

[Xing]

There will be some, that's true, but it was definitely true in 2020 as well, as many Republicans overperformed Trump's approval in their state by quite a bit, as did Trump himself. While 2022 is not going to be a good year for Democrats at all, it's not unreasonable to assume that some people who disapprove of Biden will still vote Democratic (and for him in 2024.)

[coloradocowboi]

Yep.

White voters are far more likely to punish bad politicians than black voters.

I'm sure this is it and not that the GOP demonizes popular Black social movements and does stuff like banning them from voting after church.

[Ferguson97]

It's not really surprising. Like everyone else said, just because someone disapproves of Biden, doesn't mean they'll vote for a Republican. Now of course, the real risk here is that those people don't come out to vote at all.

[ElectionsGuy]

During the Trump years, in 2018 and particularly in 2020, Republicans and Trump himself did not poll at or above Trump's approval rating, even when it was as low as Biden's right now. But now, there are all these independent voters who disapprove of Biden but are committing to voting Democratic... in January? Yeah, doesn't sound sketchy at all. Why do the polls always suggest Dems will overperform their fundamentals? I don't believe they're getting a representative sample of independents. In 2020 I saw polls constantly showing Biden getting 60% of independents with a D+4 electorate. He actually got 54% with a D+1 electorate. It wouldn't surprise me if something like that is happening again, so many of these polls still suggest Dems will outnumber R's in total electorate when there's a good chance the opposite will happen based on many indicators. How many 2020 polls suggesting Biden was winning people who had an unfavorable view of both candidates? And then Trump won them anyway, indicating a lack of right-leaning independents in many of these polls.

While it's not difficult for Democrats to poll above Biden's lousy approval rating right now, the lion's share of these voters who disapprove of Biden but claim to support Dems are not Democrats as people like to believe, they are independents. Only a small share of Democrats disapprove of Biden, and they will always vote D.

But here's what else is weird. It was easier for people to differentiate Trump and congressional R's, as there were out in the open strategic, behavior, and policy differences. Biden and congressional D's are much more attached at the hip, with just about all of them supporting his agenda, Biden himself is the epitome of "Generic D", so why are some of these polls claiming Dem politicians are getting so much more support than Biden? When that didn't happen for Republicans in the Trump years? Just screams red flags to me.

[Mr. Smith]

2020 was a Trump year that Trump wasn't competent enough to win.

A true winning President runs behind The Senate.

[OSR stands with Israel]

During the Trump years, in 2018 and particularly in 2020, Republicans and Trump himself did not poll at or above Trump's approval rating, even when it was as low as Biden's right now. But now, there are all these independent voters who disapprove of Biden but are committing to voting Democratic... in January?

But here's what else is weird. It was easier for people to differentiate Trump and congressional R's, as there were out in the open strategic, behavior, and policy differences. Biden and congressional D's are much more attached at the hip, with just about all of them supporting his agenda, Biden himself is the epitome of "Generic D", so why are some of these polls claiming Dem politicians are getting so much more support than Biden? When that didn't happen for Republicans in the Trump years? Just screams red flags to me.

Trump voters were far more enthusiastic about Trump's than Biden voters were about Biden which meant Biden has a much higher level of soft support than Trump did. This means that your party can poll better than your approvals in a way the President who doesnt have much soft support can.

Keep in mind this was the same about Obama as well when he just like Trump had an extortionary amount of enthusiastic supporters  which makes it harder for your party to poll above your approvals much.


Now that doesnt mean their arent any advantages to having the level of unprecedent support Obama/Trump had from their bases and that is it can keep you from collapsing the same way Carter/HW did and Biden does risk collapsing the way Carter/HW did imo

[It’s so Joever]

This is because liberals aren’t a cult, GQPers are.