Lean D until we see indications that we are not in a neutral partisan environment.
A neutral partisan environment would not be good enough for Kelly to win against Brnovich.
Why not? That'd basically mean he'd lose despite a NPV of ~D+3-4. Sure he could bleed some independent/moderate support however you'd think that would be reflected at least somewhat nationally. I have this Lean D for the same reason I have WI Lean R, when in doubt I feel the incumbent in a swing state is the slight favorite until they show why they shouldn't be or the national environment is favoring a party. To say anything more right now would be too much speculation for my blood. Don't know enough about Brinovich as a candidate aside from the court case and he's won 2x by pretty standard margins.
Now an even, D+1, or maybe D+2 NPV? Yeah Brnovich probably has that one.
Poll
