Who would you vote for in the 2021 Scottish Parliament Election?

[Geoffrey Howe]

I think enough of the left-wing posters on this forum could rise above it, but there's also a heuristic association between Scottish unionism/the UK and Boris Johnson, Brexit and Trump which the SNP oppose. It makes sense that independence from a country led by Boris Johnson outside the EU would be a liberal cause. There were very few prominent right-wing arguments or political voices in favour of independence during the referendum and within Scotland, so it follows that Scottish Independence might be seen in the media as primarily a left of centre cause (which it was/is in the eyes of quite a few Scots), though the social justice element to that stems much more strongly from Scotland's economic position within the UK, which the pro-independence side claim is down to 'being ruled by Westminster.'

Scottish nationalism has always struck me as having a similar emotional appeal as Brexit; the former as regards Scotland and the latter Britain. I'd like to see some estimates, but I doubt there are many pro-independence Brexiteers; which makes little sense since it seems to me that many of the arguments for No could be applied for Remain, albeit with stronger force for No.

It makes little sense, for example, to view it simply as a reaction to Tory central governments; after all, the movement didn't (I think) flourish under Thatcherism; rather under the Labour governments of the 2000s which Scotland voted for. I could go into detail about what I think might be some longer-term causes if you like.

[Geoffrey Howe]

I think enough of the left-wing posters on this forum could rise above it, but there's also a heuristic association between Scottish unionism/the UK and Boris Johnson, Brexit and Trump which the SNP oppose. It makes sense that independence from a country led by Boris Johnson outside the EU would be a liberal cause. There were very few prominent right-wing arguments or political voices in favour of independence during the referendum and within Scotland, so it follows that Scottish Independence might be seen in the media as primarily a left of centre cause (which it was/is in the eyes of quite a few Scots), though the social justice element to that stems much more strongly from Scotland's economic position within the UK, which the pro-independence side claim is down to 'being ruled by Westminster.'

Scottish nationalism has always struck me as having a similar emotional appeal as Brexit; the former as regards Scotland and the latter Britain. I'd like to see some estimates, but I doubt there are many pro-independence Brexiteers; which makes little sense since it seems to me that many of the arguments for No could be applied for Remain, albeit with stronger force for No.

It makes little sense, for example, to view it simply as a reaction to Tory central governments; after all, the movement didn't (I think) flourish under Thatcherism; rather under the Labour governments of the 2000s which Scotland voted for. I could go into detail about what I think might be some longer-term causes if you like.

I agree with you that it is not solely a reaction to Tory Westminster governments but that doesn't necessarily negate the left-wing elements to it. The movement of hard-core pro-independence supporters was never small, but until the referendum, when the social justice case was made by the SNP, the independence movement picked up more support. Of course, simply having the conversation energised a lot of people and encouraged them to pick a side where they had not done so. All of this happened during the coalition government, but the longer-term causes obviously predate that. Having said that, devolution upended the status quo in my view and helped to further foster a Scottish political identity with its own conscience, which is a longer-term cause I am sure you would identify. Polls did show that the single biggest motivator of support for independence was disaffection with Westminster - and therefore the willingness and hope Scotland would do better alone. I am confident there are several left-wing elements to that.

Again, the list of known pro-independence Brexiteers is quite low (I can only think of Alex Neil and Jim Sillars being of any prominence), which probably reduces the perceived figure, but there were more than you think - Banff and Buchan is estimated (don't take as gospel) to be the only Independence/Brexit constituency (and indeed, the only certain pro-Brexit seat in Scotland). That owes itself to unique circumstances related to local industry, but some of the most pro-Remain areas were also the most anti-Independence areas - much of Edinburgh, East Lothian, East Dunbartonshire, East Renfrewshire. This in my view is down to the better economic situation in those areas and therefore a vote for the status quo. There are equally enough Brexiteers who oppose independence, in some of the rural areas bordering England. So whilst there may not be any link between supporting independence and supporting Brexit, it's not completely random in my eyes. Having said that, all of this happened before the EU referendum, so the dynamics have changed slightly, but it's hard to tell how much has changed when Scotland is overwhelmingly pro-European anyway.

I quite agree with what you say. I was thinking more broadly. Are the fishermen of Banff and Buchan happy with their deal?

[Geoffrey Howe]

I genuinely don't understand why so many American centre-left posters support Scottish independence.

Scottish independence represents the kind of stupid nationalism that you all (rightly) profess to hate.  It isn't based on anything concrete because Scots* aren't really any different to English or Welsh.  It would be like me supporting independence for Minnesota.  Scotland isn't some kind of oppressed colony - it is actually over represented in Westminster and has its own self government that has a lot of power.  Not only that but its weaker economy benefits from the stronger English economy.

* Who is a Scotsman?  I was born and brought up in Wales but Ancestry says I am 75% Scottish (Shetland) and my surname is strongly linked with Gloucestershire, where I now live.

I understand that you may not like Brexit and that that might be your reasoning.  But Brexit isn't actually going to change very much for ordinary people.  The only difference is maybe having to pay slightly extra for some products from the EU.  And really if you think leaving a 60-year union with the EU was tricky how much harder would leaving a 400-year union be?

Furthermore independence would just make one of America's strongest allies a lot weaker both economically and geopolitically.  It's no surprise that Russian and Chinese state media support independence.

In addition to what you've just said (though I disagree about the impact of Brexit)
Much of the mess and tiresome problems we've had with Brexit (which many Scots understandably disliked) - those of extricating oneself from a political/economic union that has shaped the regulations etc. of the country for a long time are the same for Scottish independence. Calculating the share of financial liabilities, settling immigration/citizenship rights, personal data, fishing etc. Trade and border agreements; much of Scotland's trade is with England. Negotiating with a more powerful opposite party which gives strength on the world stage - e.g. the permanent seat on the UN Security Council. Harm to GDP; but a study from the LSE suggested the cut to Scotland's economy would be more than two times Brexit's. The problems with Scotland leaving the UK are frighteningly similar to UK leaving the EU. But on top of that, you have all sorts of currency and monetary issues; what currency will Scotland adopt, dealing with mortgages agreed in sterling. The Scottish central bank would need to gain fiscal credibility; Scotland's deficits are larger than England's and they would struggle to meet the EU deficit criteria. Most fundamentally, you would be rupturing a union much closer and more historic than that of Britain and Europe; not least in shared language.

It's just beyond me how people in Scotland who have not been impressed by Brexit, for good reason, would want to inflict the same thing on Scotland again - and severing an even stronger union.

There's an interesting article on this in The Economist this week. https://www.economist.com/briefing/2021/04/15/brexit-has-reinvigorated-scottish-nationalism

[Geoffrey Howe]

I genuinely don't understand why so many American centre-left posters support Scottish independence.

Scottish independence represents the kind of stupid nationalism that you all (rightly) profess to hate.  It isn't based on anything concrete because Scots* aren't really any different to English or Welsh.  It would be like me supporting independence for Minnesota.  Scotland isn't some kind of oppressed colony - it is actually over represented in Westminster and has its own self government that has a lot of power.  Not only that but its weaker economy benefits from the stronger English economy.

* Who is a Scotsman?  I was born and brought up in Wales but Ancestry says I am 75% Scottish (Shetland) and my surname is strongly linked with Gloucestershire, where I now live.

I understand that you may not like Brexit and that that might be your reasoning.  But Brexit isn't actually going to change very much for ordinary people.  The only difference is maybe having to pay slightly extra for some products from the EU.  And really if you think leaving a 60-year union with the EU was tricky how much harder would leaving a 400-year union be?

Furthermore independence would just make one of America's strongest allies a lot weaker both economically and geopolitically.  It's no surprise that Russian and Chinese state media support independence.

I generally agree with the substance of this post, but elision of certain facts and the framing of it rankles slightly and is indicative of the trouble unionism is in here.

Having a Welsh parent and as someone who was born and grew up in England, I can second your point that Scots are not very different to other peoples in the British Isles. But our national identity is a fact. We have our own legal system (and have had one for ~1000 years), a parliament, our own sporting teams, and a separate national history centred on heroes who fought the English for national sovereignty. It won't do to ridicule Scottish nationalism as on the level of that of Minnesota's. Devolution is popular, there is broad support for devolving more powers to Holyrood, and the average Scottish voter, unionist as well as nationalist, is primarily motivated by the question of "what is best for Scotland" over pan-British appeals. A unionist argument that Scottish nationalism is stupid because you're not really a nation would be insulting to voters here, and the suspicion that "the Westminster parties" all secretly believe this is what fuels a lot of nationalist animus.

Has devolution encouraged Scottish nationalism?

[Geoffrey Howe]

Having said I'd vote for the Liberal Democrats on the list the campaign is turning me towards Labour. I am someone who can be persuaded easily with the right means, and Anas Sarwar continues to impress. But I have no real stake in this election or the constitutional questions and it's easy to be persuaded when your stance is purely academic. Whereas my local council vote would be dead-cert Labour.

I would definitely support Anas Sarwar in Glasgow Southside to try and unseat Sturgeon. Don't know about the list, but the given that Scotland is quite left-wing the Scottish Tories are probably quite sensible.