Scottish Parliament Election, 6th May 2021

[Geoffrey Howe]

The Spectator has mooted the idea of Anas Sarwar unseating Nicola Sturgeon in Glasgow Southside.

https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/is-nicola-sturgeon-in-for-a-scare-in-her-own-seat-

[Geoffrey Howe]

The Spectator has mooted the idea of Anas Sarwar unseating Nicola Sturgeon in Glasgow Southside.

https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/is-nicola-sturgeon-in-for-a-scare-in-her-own-seat-

Simply not going to happen. For anyone not aware, The Spectator is a strongly unionist and anti-SNP magazine and even they concede she will hang on.

Back in 2016, she won with 61% of the vote and in 2011 with 54% of the vote. Labour were second both times with 23% and 35% respectively.

Sturgeon will be elected with a majority of at least a couple of thousand votes on a bad night.

Scotland isn't exactly immune to crazy swings; but yes, this is a pipe-dream.

[Geoffrey Howe]

Afleitch, who will you be supporting on the list vote? It doesn’t look like the SNP can get any list seats in Glasgow/Central Scotland, so will it be a vote for the Greens?

[Geoffrey Howe]

This Canadian just started getting into GB politics and watched the Scottish leaders' debate, and personally I quite liked Sarwar. Any reason why Labour is struggling so much in Scotland? Is it just a matter of labour-inclined voters also being more nationalistic?

I should really defer to the Scots in this thread, but my ‘take’ is that yes, left wingers are likely more nationalistic. For one thing, Labour nationally aren’t doing terribly well. But specific to Scotland there seems to be a feeling that the SNP - and maybe independence - is the most effective opposition to the Tories in Westminster. I try not to be too tendentious because I have a visceral hatred of the SNP.

Edit: Beesley’s post has reminded me also that apparently they disliked Labour campaigning along the Tories (and coalition Lib Dems) for the union.

[Geoffrey Howe]

Quite frankly though, I cannot understand why this hasn’t convinced all the separatists.

 

[Geoffrey Howe]

I voted in Edinburgh Southern at about 12:30 and for the first time in my life there was a queue. Even with the caveat of social distancing and them having changed the polling station from the primary school to a church hall, I am thus able to make the following rating change.

EDINBURGH SOUTHERN TURNOUT

TOSSUP ----------------> LEAN BRISK

What's the feeling 'on the ground' about the SNP's chances? Edinburgh Southern voted strongly against independence, but it looks like the unionist vote was split heavily in 2016 so the SNP came very close.

[Geoffrey Howe]

I voted in Edinburgh Southern at about 12:30 and for the first time in my life there was a queue. Even with the caveat of social distancing and them having changed the polling station from the primary school to a church hall, I am thus able to make the following rating change.

EDINBURGH SOUTHERN TURNOUT

TOSSUP ----------------> LEAN BRISK

What's the feeling 'on the ground' about the SNP's chances? Edinburgh Southern voted strongly against independence, but it looks like the unionist vote was split heavily in 2016 so the SNP came very close.

I can't say I have any special insight, work has taken me away from home for the duration of the pandemic. What I would say is that Labour are much safer than the numerical majority would suggest for a couple of reasons. 2016 was an eon ago in scottish politics (before, among other things, Brexit) and the tories claim that they were the best unionist choice, which may have had some purchase then has lost all plausibility now, while Ian Murray very comfortably held South (the boundaries are slightly different but if anything Southern is less favourable to the SNP) even in 2019.

Fundamentally, even with fewer students this is close to the perfect seat for Scottish Labour (and not, as I am tired of tories insisting online, the conservatives - unionist tactical voting does not explain why they haven't held it since 1987, no constituency with similar demographics (dominated by a university, city centre, 75% remain) is remotely competitive for them in england), which is why it was a gain in the general meltdown of 2016, and with a reasonably strong incumbent and the party doing as well if not better than then there is no real reason for it to be lost.

Makes sense. So I would imagine Labour hold. As for some Tory constituencies of that description, I was thinking of Oxford West, but that doesn't contain most of the students (and is now Lib Dem). Coincidentally, Cambridge too was last won by the Tories in 1987 (against Shirley Williams).

Anyway, I hope you enjoyed voting the SNP out 

[Geoffrey Howe]

Do we have any quantitative data on turnout? That's usually the first thing known; after all you can get it from the voter rolls they cross out when you come to vote.

[Geoffrey Howe]

I read 60.8% turnout for Scotland. That would be the highest ever, surpassing 58.5% in the inaugural 1999 election.

[Geoffrey Howe]

So the SNP not really improving on 2016 so far?

[Geoffrey Howe]

Sturgeon basically saying she won't get a majority in political-speak on BBC. Looks like the SNP knows unionist consolidation in marginals will deny the SNP pickups on the constituencies.

But if SNP outperforms on the regional vote would it not matter how many constituency seats SNP happens to gain or lose which at most will be in the low single digits in either direction.  So even if SNP gains less or even loses constituency seats due to unionist tactical voting their fate is still in their hands on how well they do in the regional vote.  Is this not the case ?

The SNP doesn't seem to get many regional seats at all outside of very unionist regions like the South Scotland. The only list seat outside South Scotland was a single seat from Highlands and Islands.

As oryxslayer said, the way to get nationalist list seats is the with the Greens (or Alba if they had done better).

[Geoffrey Howe]

Sturgeon basically saying she won't get a majority in political-speak on BBC. Looks like the SNP knows unionist consolidation in marginals will deny the SNP pickups on the constituencies.

But if SNP outperforms on the regional vote would it not matter how many constituency seats SNP happens to gain or lose which at most will be in the low single digits in either direction.  So even if SNP gains less or even loses constituency seats due to unionist tactical voting their fate is still in their hands on how well they do in the regional vote.  Is this not the case ?

Other news, SNP held the Safe seat of Falkirk east. Similar story to other safe seats where changes were marginal at best.

3 point swing to Labour for what that's worth.

[Geoffrey Howe]

Sturgeon basically saying she won't get a majority in political-speak on BBC. Looks like the SNP knows unionist consolidation in marginals will deny the SNP pickups on the constituencies.

But if SNP outperforms on the regional vote would it not matter how many constituency seats SNP happens to gain or lose which at most will be in the low single digits in either direction.  So even if SNP gains less or even loses constituency seats due to unionist tactical voting their fate is still in their hands on how well they do in the regional vote.  Is this not the case ?

No, see here. Basically the more constituency seats you get the harder it is to get a regional seat even if you get the same proportion of the vote across both, but even this won't be the case because the greens will mean that the snp's regional vote is lower than their constituency one.

Right.  So net net, unionist tactical voting in constituencies seats does not matter because even if they gain a seat or two from SNP or prevent losses to SNP the fact is the regional seat distribution will compensate for those gains or losses.  If so the only thing that matters is SNP regional vote relative to other parties.

I haven't done the maths but it seems possible to me that unionists could win a constituency seat without giving the SNP a list seat. May be wrong.

[Geoffrey Howe]

SNP hold Paisley on a negligible swing against them. Greens stood here.

Greens got 4.5% but no real noticeable drain from the SNP.

Yes, and the total unionist vote declined. Good results for the nationalists.

[Geoffrey Howe]

Results are coming in quickly; shall I stop cluttering the thread unless there is something striking?

[Geoffrey Howe]

Very good SNP result and disappointing LD result in much of Charles Kennedy's old seat.

[Geoffrey Howe]

Am I right that Scottish Tories are more willing to vote SLab than the other way round?

[Geoffrey Howe]

Edinburgh Central flips SNP for Angus Robertson. Robertson swept up some labour and Green voters and came over the previous Conservative total. Flip from Ruth Davidson's personal vote to Robertson's.

Initially quite hopeful about Scotland, I am now despondent.

[Geoffrey Howe]

Edinburgh Central flips SNP for Angus Robertson. Robertson swept up some labour and Green voters and came over the previous Conservative total. Flip from Ruth Davidson's personal vote to Robertson's.

Initially quite hopeful about Scotland, I am now despondent.

Is an SNP majority now possible? If so, that's terrible...I'm resigned to the idea of an SNP/Green majority, but an outright SNP majority would be beyond awful.

John Curtice:
'The SNP victory in Edinburgh Central, widely anticipated in the wake of Ruth Davidson's decision to stand down, means the SNP are now half way to their target of winning six marginal constituency seats in order to get to 65 seats.'

I'm quite sad for Scotland.

[Geoffrey Howe]

I'm quite sad for Scotland. Hope they don't hold an illegal referendum if the SNP gets a majority.

I'm a staunch unionist but if the SNP get a majority they should hold a referendum if the Scottish Parliament voted for it. Blatant hypocrisy from the Tories to say only they could stop a referendum at Holyrood and then to have Westminster block it when that is rejected.

They might have a mandate for it, I'm just saying I hope they don't.

[Geoffrey Howe]

Odd: Labour down 6 in Cunninghame South, and the Tories up 6; even though this is an SNP seat where Lab were second.

[Geoffrey Howe]

I'm quite sad for Scotland. Hope they don't hold an illegal referendum if the SNP gets a majority.

I'm a staunch unionist but if the SNP get a majority they should hold a referendum if the Scottish Parliament voted for it. Blatant hypocrisy from the Tories to say only they could stop a referendum at Holyrood and then to have Westminster block it when that is rejected.

I agree. As much as I don't want to see a second referendum, it would be extremely unwise for Westminster to block it. That could energize those in favor of independence. Also, while it would be hypocritical to say such a referendum needs a super-majority (considering the rules for the last indyref and the Brexit referendum), it is ridiculous that a bare majority could break up the union.

I agree. A friend of mine when I said the SNP might get a majority said it's time to repeal the Scotland Act 1988. I'm not sure how serious he's being. In Wales he supported the Abolish Party.
It's a tough position if the SNP manage to call a referendum. I think there should be a supermajority needed to break up a three-hundred year old union.

[Geoffrey Howe]

I'm quite sad for Scotland. Hope they don't hold an illegal referendum if the SNP gets a majority.

I'm a staunch unionist but if the SNP get a majority they should hold a referendum if the Scottish Parliament voted for it. Blatant hypocrisy from the Tories to say only they could stop a referendum at Holyrood and then to have Westminster block it when that is rejected.

I agree. As much as I don't want to see a second referendum, it would be extremely unwise for Westminster to block it. That could energize those in favor of independence. Also, while it would be hypocritical to say such a referendum needs a super-majority (considering the rules for the last indyref and the Brexit referendum), it is ridiculous that a bare majority could break up the union.

I agree. A friend of mine when I said the SNP might get a majority said it's time to repeal the Scotland Act 1988. I'm not sure how serious he's being. In Wales he supported the Abolish Party.
It's a tough position if the SNP manage to call a referendum. I think there should be a supermajority needed to break up a three-hundred year old union.

Maybe Westminster can agree to devolve the power to call binding referenda on independence to Holyrood so long as they require a super-majority. Maybe the SNP will go for it...I'm not sure if they **actually** want independence. If Scotland were to become and independent country then they couldn't blame Westminster on all their failings any more! Ha!

Not to fear - according to John Curtice:

'Jackie Baillie's successful defence of her Dumbarton constituency means it is now unlikely that the SNP will achieve an overall majority in the new Holyrood parliament.

[Geoffrey Howe]

For one thing, I am strongly opposed to referendums per se. And yes, the status quo is inherently better insofar as erratically changing course based on a small majority of voters in a binary question is bad.

In my view, referendums are incompatible with representative democracy. But that's another matter.

The idea that there should be a referendum every few years on the existence of the United Kingdom strikes me as ridiculous, especially with ephemeral issues tipping the balance. In the long run, how we are governed is more important than any day-to-day issue.

Please, after Brexit, explain to me how binary, vague referendums on major issues are a good thing.

[Geoffrey Howe]

For one thing, I am strongly opposed to referendums per se. And yes, the status quo is inherently better insofar as erratically changing course based on a small majority of voters in a binary question is bad.

In my view, referendums are incompatible with representative democracy. But that's another matter.

The idea that there should be a referendum every few years on the existence of the United Kingdom strikes me as ridiculous, especially with ephemeral issues tipping the balance. In the long run, how we are governed is more important than any day-to-day issue.

Please, after Brexit, explain to me how binary, vague referendums on major issues are a good thing.

The idea of FPTP for me seems much more ridiculous.

This new referendum is entirely in the context of Brexit. Brexit is the single biggest constitutional change since one can remember and it was done without the consent of the other nations, with Tory fringe members having more influence than elected leaders of said nations. Its a pure English Nationalist project, entirely dictated by the internal politics of a party that is barely represented in Scotland and Northern Ireland. That in itself is much more ridiculous than a referendum every two years.

If the English National Tory Party love the Union so much, why don't they invite the FMs and political representatives to be stakeholders in the Brexit process? The answer of course, is that they have always viewed these nations as boils on their arses rather than genuine compatriots. Doubly so once it became apparent these "fairy folk" wouldn't deliver MPs.

Whatever your emotional stance on the Union (and again, I neither want it to break up nor think its a good idea), its constitutional fabric is utterly broken. If you love the Union, you'd try and listen to SNP demands and take heed.

Don't be ridiculous. Wales voted Leave. Over a million people in Scotland voted Leave. Why do you think we had a referendum in the first place? All three main parties supported Remain overall. It is because the EU was an unpopular organisation which many people wanted to leave, not least because they felt politicians hadn't listened to them on that. And Cameron held a referendum as a way to win UKIP votes - an example of FPTP working.