🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0

[Geoffrey Howe]

Two interesting articles about the last stronghold for the Communists in Portugal:


https://www.politico.eu/article/red-flag-flying-portugal-communist-party-election/

https://www.publico.pt/2011/01/29/jornal/avis-o-concelho-irredutivel-do-pcp-nasceu-na-reforma-agraria-21160443

[Geoffrey Howe]

Two interesting articles about the last stronghold for the Communists in Portugal:


https://www.politico.eu/article/red-flag-flying-portugal-communist-party-election/

https://www.publico.pt/2011/01/29/jornal/avis-o-concelho-irredutivel-do-pcp-nasceu-na-reforma-agraria-21160443

Yes, Avis is the big Communist bastion as it has voted for the PCP, and its candidates, in all elections bar 2001 and 2021, but the PCP strength is falling election after election. In the January 2021 Presidential election, the PCP candidate got just 28% of the votes and President Marcelo became the first center-right candidate to win in Avis with 43% of the votes. Ventura also got 16% of the votes. In the 2019 general elections, the PCP also achieved their worst results till date with just 39% against the 30% of the PS.

The incumbent PCP mayor, which can run for another term, will very likely be reelected but it will be interesting to see his vote share and margins. Many predict that the PCP could suffer a huge blow in the fall local elections.

It will be interesting to see. Are there any 'precinct' (don't know what they're called in Portugal) results for elections?

[Geoffrey Howe]

It will be interesting to see. Are there any 'precinct' (don't know what they're called in Portugal) results for elections?

The maximum is the parish results, which are the last administrative division of local government and currently there are 3,092 of them. Results by precincts/voting stations aren't published, there are parishes with just one polling station while others, mainly urban and even larger rural areas, have several polling stations. Election results are published with data from districts, then municipalities and then parishes. You can see them in here: (from the last elections in 2019 and 2021)

2019 general elections: https://www.eleicoes.mai.gov.pt/legislativas2019/territorio-nacional.html

2021 Presidential elections: https://www.eleicoes.mai.gov.pt/presidenciais2021/resultados/territorio-nacional

Thanks. I see that in Maranhão (within Avis), the Communists got 61% in 2019! And Ferreira won the Presidential there too in 2021.

[Geoffrey Howe]

It will be interesting to see. Are there any 'precinct' (don't know what they're called in Portugal) results for elections?

The maximum is the parish results, which are the last administrative division of local government and currently there are 3,092 of them. Results by precincts/voting stations aren't published, there are parishes with just one polling station while others, mainly urban and even larger rural areas, have several polling stations. Election results are published with data from districts, then municipalities and then parishes. You can see them in here: (from the last elections in 2019 and 2021)

2019 general elections: https://www.eleicoes.mai.gov.pt/legislativas2019/territorio-nacional.html

2021 Presidential elections: https://www.eleicoes.mai.gov.pt/presidenciais2021/resultados/territorio-nacional

Thanks. I see that in Maranhão (within Avis), the Communists got 61% in 2019! And Ferreira won the Presidential there too in 2021.

By just one vote in 2021, but a win is a win. Also, before 2013, Maranhão was an "independent" parish with less than 100 inhabitants. The PSD/CDS government (2011-2015) merged a lot of parishes in 2013 and the total number of parishes was reduced from 4,260 to 3,092. In that parish, the CDU (coalition between PCP and PEV) had normally 80-90% vote shares, but after the merger in 2013, however, the CDU share drooped considerably as the other merged parish, Alcórrego, isn't as strong for the PCP as is Maranhão.

Are there any reasons you know of why Maranhão is so left-wing even by Avis standards?

[Geoffrey Howe]

Two interesting articles about the last stronghold for the Communists in Portugal:


https://www.politico.eu/article/red-flag-flying-portugal-communist-party-election/

https://www.publico.pt/2011/01/29/jornal/avis-o-concelho-irredutivel-do-pcp-nasceu-na-reforma-agraria-21160443

There's little reason to vote PCP if you're socially progressive when you have the Left Bloc. Plus, like in Ireland, there's been a big change on attitudes towards social issues, propelled by younger people. And with Chega now in the mix in some rural areas, I don't see the PCP performing better any time soon.

But I suppose socially conservative 'olds' as people say on Atlas are still committed to the Communists.