Seems to me here that the mystery question is whether the black % is 33% or 40% or somewhere in between.
Yes. If the black vote is only 1/3, down from 46% for Kerry, and Obama is losing North Carolina whites two-to-one in an open primary, this result is feasible. How likely is that?
I might end up biting my tongue, I'm no good in the South, but I buy this about as much as I bought PPP's Obama +4 in Pennsylvania. Well, I shouldn't be hyperbolic...
I'm confused. Is 46% the % of the population in the 2004 primary that was black. Or is this the % of Kerry's vote in the 2004 general election? The distinction is quite important.
nc didnt have a primary in 2004.
