Early Voting thread.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

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[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Checked the NC breakdown for the first time in a while and the Dems are still outperforming 2020 percentage wise.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Checked the NC breakdown for the first time in a while and the Dems are still outperforming 2020 percentage wise.

Where is this coming from? I see republicans over-performing by both modeled and registered party per target smart.

The NCSBE

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

FLORIDA
Combined VBM + Early In Person through Tues Oct. 25

DEMOCRATS  683,947

REPUBLICANS  664,055

INDEPENDENTS  318,974

Democrats lead by 19,892

Democrats were aided by a huge VBM Day (147K) and added 15K

Republicans were helped by a 117K In-Person Day were they netted 25K

Tomorrow Hernando, Volusia, Pasco, St. Johns, Nassau and Martin kick off Early In-Person Vote.

2016 Try Not To Mention Florida Challenge (IMPOSSIBLE)

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

https://twitter.com/SimonWDC/status/1584953574504960000

Basically red states and swing states are the bright spot for Dems currently. Blue states plus IA/NV/NC/AZ are the only places looking good for the GOP. I do think I recall that North Carolina saw a similar pattern at the beginning of their early vote where Dems were outpacing 2020 for a while, but the GOP has been steadily gaining (not just gaining percentage, which is to be expected, but gaining relative to the same time in 2020).

This should tell a lot in the next couple of weeks. If these numbers hold up and Dems are straight up winning the early vote in Texas or Ohio, a wave is probably out of the question. If those numbers become more R favorable as time goes on the same way NC has, it could be a sign that special elections/first few days of early voting metrics are being skewed by dem super voter intensity.

I don't know why people trust Target Smart in states without party registration like TX. Their modeled party "data" is often horribly inaccurate.

Just using the reliable data we see evidence of a massive red wave. But using a model is like trusting a Monmouth poll.

More Black vote % in GA= red wave?

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

@Unelectable Bystander,
I think Ohio & North Carolina is locked in for Republicans too.

The current D-R Spread in Ohio is 45-41 and in North Carolina if you believe the NC State Board of Elections it's 39-31 D-R down from 43-27 D-R in 2020.

The LAZY North Carolina Republican Party trends to get their Early Voters more out during the Final Week of EV.

I am pretty comfortable that those Spreads in OH & NC are not good enough to safe Tim Ryan and Cheri Beasley.

You keep saying this; it's not true. The final EV (in person + mail) was D+5, 37-32 in 2020

Putting 2016 on ignore has vastly improved my forum experience.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Washoe 3,5k dems, 3,4 reps. Total +1400 dems. Percentages 41,0 vs 38,2. If I'm republican in Nevada, I sure hope election day turnout is going to be huge

Doesn't the universal mail-ins make that harder?

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Will even Mastriano lead on Election Night?

Yep. He'll probably declare victory then, too.

It will then be funny when he loses by 10 points.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

To illustrate how FRAUDUDENT the Target Smart Model is when you do "Modelled Party":

It gives Frank Mrvan a nearly 30 Point edge over Jennifer Ruth Green in IN-1.

It gives Elaine Luria a nearly 9 Point edge over Jen Kiggans in VA-2

And those are just two illustrations by me.

Trash Target Smart in the bin.

Not to be rude, but "fraududent"?

2016 has gone beyond the election denial, and now says that polls are rigged against Rs.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

All the media types talking about how "youth turnout is better than 2018" are disingenuously quoting raw votes rather than percentage of the electorate, and those saying it's better than 2020 are disingenuously comparing in-person raw votes (to a cycle where hordes of people voted by mail). Really disgusting stuff from the pundit class.

Raw vote totals don't matter in comparisons like this: electoral share matters.

Here's a map using TargetSmart's data showing what share of the EV electorate 9 days before Election Day the under-50 category comprises this year compared to the same point in 2018. For instance, if a state's share was 25% at this point in 2018 and is 22% this year, it's shaded with the "-3" coloration. Also worth noting that in some of these states, I'm pretty sure TargetSmart's data is just broken, so take individual results that look extreme with a grain of salt (but take in the broader picture):

Oh wow we're completely f@cked.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

I'm not seeing anything in my numbers so far from WA to suggest R's majorly overperform the primary results.

It's ok if you don't want to answer, but how confident are you in your personal chances?

My personal chances are approximately equivalent to Smiley's chances. Maybe slightly better, but close enough to make little real difference. That is, I don't expect to win at this point barring a true "red wave" situation where a bunch of non-primary voters show up unexpectedly.

But politics is a long game, and I've set myself up well for the future.

My mom is the campaign manager for this one person who ran a couple years back for county-level office and lost but is now running for city council (which she'll likely win). Are you thinking of something like that?

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

SECULAR friewal comes through

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Something to consider: Nevada has universal DMV voter registration now and this has shifted party composition of young voters in some pretty dramatic ways. Namely, majority of "first time" voters are now unaffiliated. Since young voters are most likely to be registered through this system and not bother changing to a party or filling out some form, I think you have to say that unaffiliated this year are a more Dem group than in past years.

Young voters are not turning out much at all so far this year, basically anywhere.

I agree youth turnout will be down but young people don't vote early so I have no idea what kind of "signal" anyone is getting from early voting.

Many young people won't take the initiative to actually request and fill out a mail-in ballot, but plenty of the low-turnout ones (aka those who are not USERS on Atlas Secular Blog) could very well turn up in person.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Time for Ralston to reassess tomorrow, and then change his mind between SnowLabrador and wbrocks five more times before election day.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Are we getting NV early vote today?

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

I would have expected better analysis from Ralston than Laxalt is a sh**t candidate and Lombardo is somehow going to outperform him.. despite the data saying the contrary.

What data says that? Nevada is a relatively non-elastic state, particularly on the federal level. Meanwhile, Lombardo is running as a "common-sense conservative" who is appealing to voters on kitchen table issues. Most importantly, Gubernatorial races are much more elastic in general. For instance, the gap between margins in Nevada Senate races is less than 10% in my lifetime, while the Gubernatorial difference is literally close to 50%.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Republicans don't neccessarily need Nevada.
They have "Multiple Pathways" now to a Senate Control.

Democrats are not going to win all of the 4 Battlegrounds (PA, NV, AZ, GA). That would only happen in a D-Wave Year. Usually the Party that has the momentum at the end of Campaign wins most of the Close Races in a Midterm see 2014 or 2018.