Election models megathread

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

If the election was held today, days after Dobbs, the Dems would have a fighting chance at taking the Senate. If races changing that much is news to you, ask Senator Phil Bredesen

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Honestly the Senate forecast doesn't seem too unreasonable and the House topline makes sense though there are def a few races that individually don't make much sense. They just don't align with eachother, though tbf overall they pretty much align with Atlas perhaps witha  slight boost to Dems.

The Governors forecast seems quite favorable to Dems in some places (i.e 91% Whitmer) but considering the fundamentals of the GOP candidates literally getting arrested, Whitmer's strong 2018 performance, and relatively good approval and poll numbers, I could see why a model would output that.

WI and KS are also a bit suprising; perhaps incumbency advantages and approvals skew things? After that, it seems relatively reasonable though def favourable to Dems

Making a statistical model is hard, trust me I've done it myself. The reason it trickly is because you know the polls could be slightly skewed (i.e the Warnock + 10 poll) but how you get a model to objectively be able to tell that poll is BS just becuase YOU think it is.

Their 2018 Senate and House forecasts were relatively decent all things considered and their 2020 model held up better than a lot of pundits though still slightly overestimated Ds. Even in 2020 House they still rated races like CA-25 and CA-21 as tossups even as many had written those off and generally didn't buy into the MASSIVE D House wave narative.

With the resources out there, the 538 model is as good as it gets, especially when a lot of the resources a model is reliant upon are flawed.

Also remember they aren't taking into account any polls for KS yet. It's like back in NY-14 in 2020 when Rose was favored like 80-20 but then a A-Rated poll came out that had Malliotakis up so he dropped by like 25.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

The slew of good polls for Warnock over the last few days have...improved Walker's chances in the Deluxe model? Classic remains the way to go.

MTE lmao. Warnock has now led in even more polls now, with higher margins, than again the single Walker poll that had him up 2. Yet Walker *still* is at 51% chance in Deluxe. Their model for that state makes no sense.

Well Dave Wasserman has more say in that one than statistics. Besides, 538 has presumably had time to tune their model since 2020.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

We're literally about to enter a recession, all fundamentals point to a red wave and all these Demohacks can come up with is "muh Dobbs" and "muh summer polls". Gets old.

LOL

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

https://twitter.com/IAPolls2022/status/1556750556668067841
This ought to be shocking for Democrats. Democrats running in the Rio Grande Valley, Miami, even Arizona and Nevada...YOU ARE ON NOTICE for November.

-Still under 40% is somehow DEMOCRATS GOING TO LOSE EVERYTHING LOL

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Will the 538 Deluxe model reach a point that D Senate chances are higher than R House chances?  (This is already true in the Classic model.)

The consistent trend towards Dems in the 538 model just comes from them holding their ballot lead as we get closer to the election, so it's quite possible.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Will the 538 Deluxe model reach a point that D Senate chances are higher than R House chances?  (This is already true in the Classic model.)

The consistent trend towards Dems in the 538 model just comes from them holding their ballot lead as we get closer to the election, so it's quite possible.

538 model has been quite stubborn about moving the House model towards Ds much even as the Senate model zooms left. I think a lot of that has to be because Senate races get polling House races generally don't get. if Kelly really has a 76% chance of winning AZ, AZ-01 and AZ-06 are not likely almost solid R and idk why the model has such a hard time understanding that.

I mean they have Peltola at like 15.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Democrats at 79 in Classic for the Senate, GOP at 74 for House, lol.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

If you follow the creators of this they've done a fair bit to try to take into account their mistakes from 2020.

That being said, I'm not quite as optimistic for Dems to take the Senate as these are. I'm closer to the 538 model position, maybe even a bit more cautious than 538.

If they corrected their mistakes in 2020, there's no way they would come up with this model. It just makes no sense. One of the things they take into account is fundraising dollars- but politically hyperaware left leaning voters give way more than righties and centrists. Dems are pouring money into races like Ohio that they have no chance of winning. At least they seem to have learned their lesson in Florida, finally....

Oh, and the GOP is favored in the Senate.

What?

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Also, why the hell does the RCP model have the GOP winning Wisconsin and Pennsylvania when their polling averages have Fetterman and Barnes ~5 points up in each?

Because ackshauly you have to weigh polls 10 points to the right because of  populism

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

FiveThirtyEight: Democrats up to 71% in the senate, Republicans down to 73% in the House. You love to see the trendline!

Dems up to 80% in classic, 28 in House.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Dem chance of holding the Senate (72-28) now higher than the GOP chance of taking the House (71-29) in Deluxe.

In Classic the Dems are at 80-20 in the Senate and the same 71-29 in the House.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Dems went from 65 to 67 in 538 Senate and 29 to 30 in the House? Any ideas what caused this? No polling that came out today was divergent enough or high rated enough to cause such a change. Maybe their fundamentals model incorporated some news.

When the FiveThirtyEight model has a lack of new polls, they make fundementals up to distract from the fact they've basically had the same margins for like a month and a half.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Interesting 538 article on how betting markets have diverged from the major election models recently, specifically that the betting markets seem to have priced in a much larger movement toward Republicans than the models have.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/betting-markets-are-treating-the-midterm-elections-like-its-a-presidential-election/

Historically how accurately do betting markets perform vs models?

The betting markets thought Trump had a 60%+ chance of victory on election night after the first few hours. They laughably overreact to everything.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

LOL, GeorgiaModerate is dying by these Models.

It's VOTES that count, not MODELS!

He's just doing us all a service by keeping track of polling averages.

You, on the other hand, are an annoying troll with atrocious grammar and political knowledge. Also, since you love bragging about BASED DESANTIS's excellent polling average, I don't see why you'd oppose that.