PA-GOV (Fabrizio Ward/Impact/AARP): Shapiro +3

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

LOL Oz

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

The only thing surprising here is Shapiro being underwater with Indies in favorability at -9, vs. Mastriano's even #. Very different from the Suffolk poll.

Also losing independents by 18% is incredibly unlikely too.

However, it's a n=500 total sample, so I'm sure the Indie sample is like 50 people.

4.4% MOE is self explanatory here.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

This one is getting ugly. Shapiro seems to be running a feckless campaign so far based on how well Mastriano is holding up. Nearly a 20 point deficit with independents is impossible to win with.

It would serve people well to actually read the posts in the thread. The total n= is 500 in this poll, meaning a pretty small Indies sample size that we can't gleam much from, especially when it's net nearly 30% different than the Suffolk/USAT poll.

I will say it’s kind of funny that mastriano is outperforming Oz. Talk about something nobody saw coming, lol.

If you look at their favorability numbers it makes perfect sense. I expect the gap to close once Mastriano's more insane stuff gets airtime but all people know about Oz is 20 years of snake oil sales.