2022 Primary Election Night Coverage Megathread (9/13 - GRAND FINALE - DE, NH, RI) (user search)
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  2022 Primary Election Night Coverage Megathread (9/13 - GRAND FINALE - DE, NH, RI) (search mode)
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Author Topic: 2022 Primary Election Night Coverage Megathread (9/13 - GRAND FINALE - DE, NH, RI)  (Read 86498 times)
Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom
theflyingmongoose
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Posts: 10,339
Norway


Political Matrix
E: 3.41, S: -1.29

P
« Reply #100 on: August 02, 2022, 07:35:29 PM »
Underperforming by 20% in Phillips.
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Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom
theflyingmongoose
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*****
Posts: 10,339
Norway


Political Matrix
E: 3.41, S: -1.29

P
« Reply #101 on: August 02, 2022, 07:37:42 PM »
I mean we can at least say No will outrun Biden.
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Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom
theflyingmongoose
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*****
Posts: 10,339
Norway


Political Matrix
E: 3.41, S: -1.29

P
« Reply #102 on: August 02, 2022, 07:38:59 PM »
Quote from: Nyvin on August 02, 2022, 07:35:45 PM
Quote from: Politician on August 02, 2022, 07:31:08 PM
Quote from: SALT Deductions Forever on August 02, 2022, 07:30:42 PM
The weird thing is that No is outpolling Biden by 20%+ in Riley and Shawnee but only by 10% in Wyandotte.
Wyandotte is mostly black so that would probably explain it.

Not really, only about ~23% or so.

That's still 23 times the rest of Kansas Smiley
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Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom
theflyingmongoose
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*****
Posts: 10,339
Norway


Political Matrix
E: 3.41, S: -1.29

P
« Reply #103 on: August 02, 2022, 07:41:02 PM »
LOL at Brown
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Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom
theflyingmongoose
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*****
Posts: 10,339
Norway


Political Matrix
E: 3.41, S: -1.29

P
« Reply #104 on: August 02, 2022, 07:41:44 PM »
« Edited: August 02, 2022, 07:52:34 PM by Brittain33 »
Quote from: GALeftist on August 02, 2022, 07:40:45 PM
Quote from: Alben Barkley on August 02, 2022, 07:38:03 PM
Quote from: GALeftist on August 02, 2022, 07:33:28 PM
Quote from: Alben Barkley on August 02, 2022, 07:28:03 PM
Quote from: The Undefeatable Debbie Stabenow on August 02, 2022, 07:27:12 PM
Quote from: Minnesota Mike on August 02, 2022, 07:25:41 PM
Levin up 18% with 37% in. Surprises me a bit.

Their vote shares just switched on NYT? Not sure what happened there

Probably a computer/entry error.

I've seen enough: Stevens wins this one.

TBH, that margin doesn't seem insurmountable if they counted earlies/mail-ins first. If not, though, yeah, I'm ready to call it.

Is there any reason to think Levin would benefit if they did? I don't recall progressive candidates doing better on same day votes than "moderate" Democrats in the 2020 or subsequent primaries compared to mail-in/early. My memory could be wrong on that though.

Yeah, election day votes saved Summer Lee in PA-12 for example. They tend to be more progressive than earlies or mail-ins.

But Stevens is a 2018 wave candidate and is not therefore a progressive cup of tea.
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Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom
theflyingmongoose
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*****
Posts: 10,339
Norway


Political Matrix
E: 3.41, S: -1.29

P
« Reply #105 on: August 02, 2022, 07:44:10 PM »
Quote from: Alben Barkley on August 02, 2022, 07:42:51 PM
Nate Silver seems almost ready to call it for "No!"

Quote from: Nate Silver
Other sources have results from a half dozen counties, Sarah, and I don’t think there’s any intrinsic reason why you couldn’t extrapolate from one county. Like in 2024, if early results suggest that the Democratic nominee is losing in Brooklyn (Kings County) we can be pretty sure they’re losing the election.


What do the real political forecasters think though?
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Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom
theflyingmongoose
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*****
Posts: 10,339
Norway


Political Matrix
E: 3.41, S: -1.29

P
« Reply #106 on: August 02, 2022, 07:45:39 PM »
25 point overperformance in Ellsworth
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Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom
theflyingmongoose
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*****
Posts: 10,339
Norway


Political Matrix
E: 3.41, S: -1.29

P
« Reply #107 on: August 02, 2022, 07:46:58 PM »
LOL Kobach is only up by 3%
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Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom
theflyingmongoose
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*****
Posts: 10,339
Norway


Political Matrix
E: 3.41, S: -1.29

P
« Reply #108 on: August 02, 2022, 07:49:57 PM »
The overperformance is seemingly different for each county. There's like a 10% difference between Ellsworth and Phillips.
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Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom
theflyingmongoose
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*****
Posts: 10,339
Norway


Political Matrix
E: 3.41, S: -1.29

P
« Reply #109 on: August 02, 2022, 07:52:32 PM »
The overperformance is only 6% in Meade. WTF?
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Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom
theflyingmongoose
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*****
Posts: 10,339
Norway


Political Matrix
E: 3.41, S: -1.29

P
« Reply #110 on: August 02, 2022, 07:53:31 PM »
We don't have anything from Johnson or Wichita. LOL
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Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom
theflyingmongoose
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*****
Posts: 10,339
Norway


Political Matrix
E: 3.41, S: -1.29

P
« Reply #111 on: August 02, 2022, 07:55:42 PM »

Got mine in at 11c so decent move there.
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Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom
theflyingmongoose
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*****
Posts: 10,339
Norway


Political Matrix
E: 3.41, S: -1.29

P
« Reply #112 on: August 02, 2022, 07:57:05 PM »
10% overperformance in Finney. Seems like the moderates in Kansas are coming out while the rural conservatives don't give a sh**t.
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Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom
theflyingmongoose
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*****
Posts: 10,339
Norway


Political Matrix
E: 3.41, S: -1.29

P
« Reply #113 on: August 02, 2022, 07:59:01 PM »
Does anyone have 2020 early vote data?
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Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom
theflyingmongoose
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*****
Posts: 10,339
Norway


Political Matrix
E: 3.41, S: -1.29

P
« Reply #114 on: August 02, 2022, 08:02:57 PM »
Lowest overperformance is 6% in Meade while the highest is a close fight with Riley being the most notable at 25%.
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Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom
theflyingmongoose
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*****
Posts: 10,339
Norway


Political Matrix
E: 3.41, S: -1.29

P
« Reply #115 on: August 02, 2022, 08:04:34 PM »
19% overperformance in Saline county.
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Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom
theflyingmongoose
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*****
Posts: 10,339
Norway


Political Matrix
E: 3.41, S: -1.29

P
« Reply #116 on: August 02, 2022, 08:06:36 PM »
Quote from: Official Penguin Books Account on August 02, 2022, 08:04:03 PM
Looking forward to Greitens losing every single county.

The only rurals we have are in Hartzler's district, so we'll see.

Quote from: Sestak on August 02, 2022, 08:04:43 PM
Quote from: SALT Deductions Forever on August 02, 2022, 08:02:57 PM
Lowest overperformance is 6% in Meade while the highest is a close fight with Riley being the most notable at 25%.

I think Jackson might have just broken this.

Holy sh**t that's nearly 40%.
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Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom
theflyingmongoose
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 10,339
Norway


Political Matrix
E: 3.41, S: -1.29

P
« Reply #117 on: August 02, 2022, 08:07:39 PM »
Kobach up to a 3.4% lead. Just LOL.
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Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom
theflyingmongoose
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 10,339
Norway


Political Matrix
E: 3.41, S: -1.29

P
« Reply #118 on: August 02, 2022, 08:09:15 PM »
Only 8% in Sedgwick. Hmm.
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Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom
theflyingmongoose
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 10,339
Norway


Political Matrix
E: 3.41, S: -1.29

P
« Reply #119 on: August 02, 2022, 08:10:07 PM »
Quote from: Alben Barkley on August 02, 2022, 08:08:24 PM
KORNACKI IS ON THE SCREEN, REPEAT, KORNACKI IS ON THE SCREEN. POINTING AT A MAP OF KANSAS!

To quote SirWoodbury:

"OOOOOOOOOOHHHHHHHH YEEEEEEEEEEEEEEAAAAAAAAAAHHHHHHHH!!!"
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Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom
theflyingmongoose
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 10,339
Norway


Political Matrix
E: 3.41, S: -1.29

P
« Reply #120 on: August 02, 2022, 08:12:15 PM »
Quote from: Adam Griffin on August 02, 2022, 08:11:26 PM
WRT KS Amendment: of all (partial) results in thus far, not a single county's "Yes" share is surpassing Trump's 2020 share. The closest right now is Chautauqua County, where "Yes" is underperforming Trump-20's margin by 10 points.

Actually I think it's 6.5% in Meade.
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Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom
theflyingmongoose
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*****
Posts: 10,339
Norway


Political Matrix
E: 3.41, S: -1.29

P
« Reply #121 on: August 02, 2022, 08:31:51 PM »
Quote from: Secretary of State Liberal Hack on August 02, 2022, 08:31:22 PM
Quote from: Mexican Wolf on August 02, 2022, 08:25:54 PM
Quote from: Old School Republican on August 02, 2022, 08:21:05 PM
I’m stunned by these results so far , as this is far worse than I thought it would be

Tbh, I thought this was going to be fairly close until I saw that the amendment didn't even include exceptions for rape, incest, or the life of the mother. That's when I realized it was going to go down in a landslide (thankfully).
The amendment wasn't actualy a straightforward directly ban abortion law, it would just remove the protection granted to it by the Kansas supreme court and allow the legislature to pass their own law.
That doesn't make an effective 30-second ad.
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Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom
theflyingmongoose
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*****
Posts: 10,339
Norway


Political Matrix
E: 3.41, S: -1.29

P
« Reply #122 on: August 02, 2022, 08:33:28 PM »
Current swing map:
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Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom
theflyingmongoose
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*****
Posts: 10,339
Norway


Political Matrix
E: 3.41, S: -1.29

P
« Reply #123 on: August 02, 2022, 08:38:39 PM »
Actually I've decided to change the color coding to reflect the moral reality of the situation:
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Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom
theflyingmongoose
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*****
Posts: 10,339
Norway


Political Matrix
E: 3.41, S: -1.29

P
« Reply #124 on: August 02, 2022, 08:43:09 PM »
Bump to 66% from the Johnson co dump.
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