OH-Sen 2022: So you’re telling me there’s a chance

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

I will be very surprised if this race is within 10 points at a minimum.

We will see. I admit 2022 will be bad, but Ryan's a strong candidate who will make Northeast OH a bit bluer than it otherwise would be / a bit less red than it otherwise would be. Given that Ryan's strong and Vance/Mandel could quite possibly shoot themselves in the foot in the GE, I'd actually argue the race has a less than 50% chance of going red by double digits. But we'll see.

Yeah. Not to mention that Ryan knows his base who will vote for him anyway and the folks he needs to convince (see the China ad). Mandel is such a terrible candidate it wouldn't be completely surprising to see him under 7-8 points.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

https://twitter.com/TimRyan/status/1521665423430893568?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7C...


I disagree with the contents but for Ohio along with the China ad might prove that Tim Ryan is running the most competent democratic senate campaign.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Tim Ryan knows how to talk to these people, but they just aren't listening this year.

Does he outrun Whaley?

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Who would have thought someone who has ran 11 successful campaigns would be better at campaigning than someone who has never run any campaign and had polar opposite policy positions five years ago?

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

I don't buy that this is truly competitive. It's going to be a redux of KS-SEN 2020.

Of course you don't.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

I get IA/KS 2020 vibes from this race, but the fact that it’s even being seriously discussed does not bode particularly well for GOP prospects in places like WI and PA.

The fact that this race is "being seriously discussed" has little to do with the underlying fundamentals of OH or any dramatic change in the national environment and everything with JD Vance being an absolute joke of a candidate who can barely be bothered to campaign. This race tells us nothing about WI.

I never said they’d lose it, it’s just that I have a hard time believing Ohio will swing 5-6 points from 2020, which many people seem to genuinely believe and that Wisconsin+Pennsylvania swing right at the same time. Anyways I still have Johnson favored in WI and think Oz stands a very good chance of winning PA, even if he’d probably narrowly lose it unless his campaign improves. Also at this current moment, there is clearly a swing towards Democrats, which may be temporary and may fade by November, but I just refuse to believe “candidate quality” can actually come close to reversing an 8 point margin, especially when even currently rosy GCB polling shows a 3 pt shift rightwards from 2020 (in terms of House margin) and a 4.5 pt shift in terms of presidential margin. Vance is an awful candidate, yes, but he should still win by at least 5 unless something has gone horribly wrong.

Yah Vance certainly could have lost it in a Trump 6 year itch but I just cannot see a scenario where he loses in a Biden midterm. Vance losing would be like if the Democrats lost VA Senate in 2018(If say Kaine retired or something).

Yep. People have to differentiate from terrible candidates- like Bob Menendez- and people like Roy Moore. I actually think Menendez is the best comparison- an unpopular candidate with lots of money who underperforms the expected margin but the national environment pulls him over the finish line.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Obviously worst ad ever /s

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

I think this summarizes why dems are optimistic, and even Ryan losing (which is virtually inevitable) would be a win:

https://twitter.com/BruneElections/status/1560306818986889217

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

I think this summarizes why dems are optimistic, and even Ryan losing (which is virtually inevitable) would be a win:

https://twitter.com/BruneElections/status/1560306818986889217

Lol do you know OH split it's vote between SEN AND GOV in 2018 Brown guess what happened Renacci got 10% of Blk vote and DeWine got 6%/12% of the Blk vote, not white Evangelical but with Blk people Blk people vote too

Anyways there are gonna be upsets in 22 we haven't had two duplicate maps each election cycle because not all races stay the dame

Nan Whaley is tied with DeWine, OH is the most likely red state to turn blue in 24 because of Brown is up for reelection

From BLOGGING ON THE INTERNET

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Loving that (intentionally or not) Ryan's team manages to pull out the anti-semitism card to appeal to "median Ohio independent voter":

?

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

I don’t blame democrats for pushing this narrative because it’s working in PA but I do blame you if you actually believe it. Is the guy supposed to suspend his campaign for every Saturday until December? I get it if it’s Michigan but people are going to change their votes over him not watching Toledo?

You can't suspend a campaign when there is none.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Ryan is a neoliberal internationalist. All of the flaws of Sherrod Brown, with none of the upside. He's likely to lose 10+ in a year in which Dems hold the House+Senate.

The people of Ohio are too smart to vote for someone who supports his evil brand of politics.

lolz

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Ryan's approval in his own district doesn't matter much. The rest of the state/low information voters don't and his spending is defining him in a more positive light.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Somebody should probably follow up with Jay Dee and see if he feels this way:


https://twitter.com/RonFilipkowski/status/1495091506952159233

Vance knows Ohio has the largest Ukrainian American community in the country right? That it’s large enough that in prior elections candidates have courted them because they were seen as swing voters and critical to a close election?

Vance knows that Victoria Spartz, a republican Ukrainian born congresswomen serves in next door in Indiana right?

Vance probably doesn't even know or care. There was nobody at his campaign to tell him.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

https://twitter.com/RonFilipkowski/status/1571225050358972419

lolz

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Ohio State always play well in reg season and when it gets time for playoffs they stink and they haven't won a title since 2015 with Ezekiel Elliott

Utah and Ohio Senate can be the upset of EDay, D's winning 54 SEATS

God you set the record for ridiculous things.

Ohio State had an unreal team in 2019 and frankly got screwed in 2019 by a targeting call against a top corner and a horrific non fumble call and then the WR breaking off the route in the red zone.

Then in 2020 they beat a heavily favored Clemson team before succumbing to a loaded Bama team.

And you’re obviously wrong about Ohio and UTAH?! come on LOL trolling much?

WTF Heretic.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

All he really needs is to match Brandon in the cities and suburbs and then hope for low rural turnout.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

https://twitter.com/AP_Politics/status/1577742425405243401?s=20&t=OnsEWInQla...

Vance wants to take away healthcare from 10 year old rape victims. Why should anyone trust him to handle the opioid crisis?

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

In a D+0.5 to R+4 year there is no way a Democrat is going to
come that close nevermind win in a state that is R+2 to R+9

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_States_Senate_election_in_Missouri

Elections are about actual people, not numbers.

If I could change one election result...

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

If there's one thing that restrains any optimism I may have for this race, it is the relative competence of the Ohio Republican Party. They know how to win as much as the Florida Democratic Party knows how to lose.

I mean, they lost to Sherrod Brown in 2018. They're likely to beat him in 2024, admittedly. But I think a better analogy is the Florida Republicans, who organize like there's an election every week.

Back to this race, while Vance's responses are horrific, they're not going to cost him politically. Nobody who supported abortion rights or gay marriage was ever going to vote for Vance. He'll still win comfortably because it's Ohio and we can't have nice things.

Most Ohioans support both, possibly over 60%. So you're saying Ryan is going to win a landslide?

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

There have been diametrically opposed responses to this debate. Predictably, Democrats are singing Ryan's praises and denouncing Vance, and Republicans are singing Vance's praises and denouncing Ryan. That's why this debate won't have much of an effect upon the race.

Both of them actually performed pretty well I thought.

That was largely my impression as well, although I would give Vance the edge in terms of who won the debate.

Yeah I would agree. I don’t think it will change the race substantially.

Vance last night:
-came out against marriage equality act
-said the situation in Ukraine is not a security issue to us
-came out in favor of a national abortion ban
-insinuated women being raped is somehow Tim Ryan's fault

among other things. Not sure how he won it.

If you're going off of who was more "polished" then I don't think you're reading the OH electorate correctly. Not just that, but it's easy to be "polished" when you just sit and lie. Vance is essentially a coastal elite, it's not surprised he's a more "polished" public speaker than Vance. But that type of stuff is the least likely thing to matter in an "Ohio" debate. Maybe if this was Massachusetts or something...

The  Populism starter pack.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Are these debates the only ones so far on a Senate level where we all agree on who won?

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/1587573282609381376
LOL Republicans are nuts

LOL Inflation, crime and the economy are the issues on the voters mind and they're talking about a hour long riot almost two years ago.

It's tone deafness with the voters.

The GOP has a plan for none of those though.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Ryan lost by 7 points. That doesn't bode well for Sherrod Brown in 2024.

Of course you are already spinning a historic midterm result into doom for 2024.