PA GOV 2022: Stick a fork in it

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

https://twitter.com/gill_mcgoldrick/status/1567143772223406083

I like that! It's a great way to tie abortion to economics.

Am I the only one who remembers Politician's 'the race will narrow when Mastriano gets ads up in the air and focuses on kitchen table issues, while Shapiro does 'muh 1/6''

Very much the opposite.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

If Mastriano doesn't book air time soon, there very well could be none left for him. TV ad space is not limitless and candidates in the past all over the country have learned this the hard way.

What do you think about the point that GOP operatives have reportedly seen internals showing Shapiro up by as much as a dozen points? Is the RGA thinking of triaging it?

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

I want both Fetterman and Shapiro to have a comfortable lead and then lose on election night so I can see all you losers meltdown.

Seems a bit hypocritical, since you are also an active member of Atlas.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

https://twitter.com/SarahLongwell25/status/1570042787063799808

bu- but- Politician told me Mastriano's focus on bread-and-ammo issues would win the swing voters because milk costs 10% more at the local Wegners!

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Mastriano is a literal white supremacist and anti-Semite.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Mastriano is a literal white supremacist and anti-Semite.

The funny thing is that he doesn't even bother to hide the slightest bit. The Republican Party anno 2022.

To the extent that he does hide it, it's only the fact that he is airing next to nothing in terms of ads on television. Allegedly he's airing micro-ads on cable where he says simple slogans like "Let's unleash freedom in Pennsylvania" while sitting on a barstool without even saying his name or what he's running for, followed by a brief shot of his logo, but I haven't even seen any of those personally, just heard about them from a friend.

He's given up on even pretending to hide it.

https://twitter.com/RonFilipkowski/status/1571567482049298432

This is besides the point but why does Ron Filipkowski always have such high comment-to-like ratios on his tweets?

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

https://twitter.com/TomLehmanWGAL/status/1571981420956127232
https://twitter.com/RonFilipkowski/status/1571987107945627652

I guess I'll give him credit for not trying to backpedal from his stringent views. But has this guy ever seen a conspiracy theory he doesn't immediately gravitate towards?

Maybe the one that he was grown in a DGA lab.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

I also think a lot of that Commonwealth Leaders Fund money was spent over the summer.

https://twitter.com/AdImpact_Pol/status/1572993614573076480

Holy sh**t. I mean I guess it's an improvement from a couple months ago when Mastriano was operating a statewide campaign on like $300,000 but still.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Okay, I'm sorry, this is borderline Likely-D at this point.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

I can only imagine if Republicans had nominated Reschenthaler and Bartos. They would be in a much better position. Even McCormick and Barletta would have a better chance of winning than Oz and Mastriano at this point.

Wasn't it mentioned earlier that Bartos's wife is fundraising for Shapiro?

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

I can only imagine if Republicans had nominated Reschenthaler and Bartos. They would be in a much better position. Even McCormick and Barletta would have a better chance of winning than Oz and Mastriano at this point.

Wasn't it mentioned earlier that Bartos's wife is fundraising for Shapiro?

Wasn't Bartos a NeverTrumper who ran for the Senate primary?

Bartos's best performances were in suburban east PA, so presumably.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Okay, I'm sorry, this is borderline Likely-D at this point.

In practice, it's Likely D and closer to Safe than Lean. The margin won't be crazily high though (Shapiro will certainly do worse than Wolf did in 2014/2018, especially in the rurals).

Well Wolf 2014 and 2018 are two different things. I definitely think it's possible for Shapiro to duplicate a margin like Wolf 2014, in fact it's what CBS/YouGov and Muhlenberg are looking like right now.

The rural margins will be interesting. Shapiro has been making it a point to go to red counties this entire cycle.

Going to red counties is basically a feature of any Dem running serious campaign in a swing state. Now how genuine and invested that outreach is is really what matters, cause so many do it just for optics.

The Salena Zito piece above basically shows how it's not just for optics.

Overwhelmingly Republican areas aren't going to vote for Democratic candidates. They might have twenty or thirty years ago, but not now, in this highly polarized era. However, there is the hope that denting the Republican margins in those areas might help the Democratic nominee overall. Trump won Pennsylvania in 2016 by utterly crushing Hillary Clinton in those very areas.

One annoying thing many Democrats say in writing off rural areas because they can't win them. Like yeah, that's out of reach, but shaving a couple percent off can make a difference. Republicans almost pulled that off in cities in 2020.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

I'm hesitant to call swing state races safe, but when was the last time a party gave up on a statewide candidate and that candidate won?

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Okay, I'm sorry, this is borderline SAFE-D at this point. We've had like one to five scandals for Mastriano every day for weeks, and he doesn't seem to have any will or capacity to turn around outside of holding rallies attended by 25 people. RoJo at least worked hard to close the gap, Mastriano isn't.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Okay. That's it. This is SAFE-D.

Mastriano literally announced he's not doing anything differently for the next 40 days, and his current trajectory is not positive.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Mastriano's only advertiser pulled out, he himself seems to be giving up, and SaintStan still has him winning in his TL lol

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Mastriano's only advertiser pulled out, he himself seems to be giving up, and SaintStan still has him winning in his TL lol

So the remaining co-conspirators jump off the sinking ship? Glorious to see!

Yeah. Eventually a race reaches a point where there's no conceivable way that a candidate can win. It's just rare it happens in swing states these days. But I'll go ahead and say if this track continues- as it almost certainly will- it's more likely Shapiro blows past double digits than Mastriano pulls of a win.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Yeah. As I mentioned before, it might help Fetterman similar to how Tammy Baldwin arguably pulled Evers over the line.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

This can't be repeated enough, but this is SAFE-D.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

https://twitter.com/AllAboutPA/status/1579144723318865920

HOW TO LOSE AN ELECTION
Written by Doug Mastriano
Foreword by Hillary Clinton

1. Be insane
2. Focus on your insane positions
3. Fundraise exclusively from your small, hyperconservative base
4. Turn on said hyperconservative base
5. ??
6. Whatever the opposite of profit is.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

538 has also moved this into Solid D, with Shapiro at a 95% chance in Deluxe and 96% in the normal one.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

https://twitter.com/nytimes/status/1579758737362866178?s=20&t=fO6WA_uSc4Hym3...

WTF

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

This is like the 5th literal time Mastriano has been caught using Russian footage.

https://twitter.com/SkyeJetFL/status/1584530207934816256

By putting 'beautiful women' on the same slide as two young girls the Russians are clearly trying to appeal to the American right.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Oh my God.  The drought is over.  

It finally happened.  

I FINALLY saw a pro-Mastriano ad.  Granted, it was only fifteen seconds long and didn't actually feature Mastriano himself (it was just DelRosso -- our Republican Lt. Gov. candidate -- saying "Doug Mastriano will make a great governor"), but we finally have at least one pro-Mastriano ad floating out there.  

Right, Likely R.

Yup, I'm convinced.  That fifteen seconds was absolute gold even though he wasn't in the ad and it didn't actually say what he'd do as governor.  

I'm Team Doug all the way! Let's Make Pennsylvania Great Again!

I think Forumlurker took this unironically.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

https://twitter.com/timelywriter/status/1587819437205356544

Was Mastriano created in a DGA lab?