The Delegate Fight: 2016

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Michigan (R): March 8

Overview
59 Delegates (2.39% of total)
Closed Primary [though affiliation may be switched at the polls]
59 At-Large (Proportional, 15% threshold; WTA if majority)

Delegate Allocation

If a candidate wins a majority of the primary vote, they receive all 59 delegates.  Otherwise, each candidate receives a share of the delegates equal to their share of the vote among all candidates reaching a 15% threshold.  Rounding errors are compensated for by giving a candidate to the winner or taking it from the lowest-place finisher, as necessary.

Results (3/9)

Trump 25 - Cruz 17 - Kasich 17

Delegate Selection

Delegates are chosen at the State Convention April 8-9.

Candidate Withdrawal / Brokered Convention

Delegates are bound on the first ballot, unless their candidate withdraws, dies, suspends his campaign, or releases his delegates.

Useful Links
The Green Papers: MI-R
RNC Process Book
FHQ: MI

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Mississippi (R): March 8

Overview
40 Delegates (1.62% of total)
Open Primary
28 At-Large (Proportional, 15% threshold)
12 District (Winner-Take-Most; WTA if majority)

Delegate Allocation

In each of the four Congressional Districts, the winner receives two delegates and the runner-up receives one.  If the winner gets a majority of the vote in the CD, he receives all three delegates, instead.

Statewide, each candidate receives the same share of the 28 At-Large delegates as their share of the vote among all candidates meeting a 15% threshold, rounded to the nearest whole number. FHQ claims that in case of an overallocation of delegates, a delegate is removed from the lowest-placed qualifying candidate; in case of an underallocation of delegates, that one delegate is Uncommitted.

Results (3/9)

Cruz seems to have kept Trump under the 50% WTA threshold all of the CDs, resulting in a count of

Trump 24 - Cruz 16

It's especially close in CDs 2,3, and 4, where Trump seems to be on track for 49% of the vote in each.  Trump certainly does not have a majority in CD 4, and CD 3 likewise seems out of reach.  CD 2 is still a definite possibility, and will depend on the breakdowns in Hinds and Madison counties.

Delegate Selection

Delegates are chosen at the State Convention May 13-14.

Candidate Withdrawal / Brokered Convention

Delegates are bound until their candidate releases them.

Useful Links
The Green Papers: MS-R
FHQ: MS
MS GOP Delegate Allocation Rules

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Virgin Islands (R): March 10

Overview
9 Delegates (0.36% of total)
Closed Caucus
6 Directly Elected Delegates
3 RNC Members (unbound)

Delegate Allocation and Selection

Caucus attendees vote directly for delegate candidates on their ballots.  Each attendee gets six votes, and the top six vote-winners are duly elected.

Note that the ballot has 10 Carson delegates, 6 Cruz delegates, 3 Rubio delegates, 3 Trump delegates, and 20 Uncommitted delegates.  Trump, Rubio, and Kasich do not have full delegate slates.

RNC Members

John Canegata
Lilliana Belardo de O'Neal
Holland Redfield III

As the Virgin Islands never directly holds a presidential preference vote, its RNC members are not bound.

Results (3/11)

The following six delegates were elected, all Uncommitted:
[1] John Yob*
[2] Gwendolyn Brady
[3] Warren Cole
[4] Erica Yob*
[5] George Logan
[6] Lindsey Eilon*

* These three people moved to the Virgin Islands quite recently specifically to become delegates.  Due to their short period of residency here, their eligibility to be delegates is contested and is the subject of an ongoing court case.  The Yobs appear to have won the court case so far, but further appeals may be possible.

After losing the court case, John Canegata decided to try to throw out all 6 elected delegates based on a patently incorrect reading of a technicality.  More discussion can be found here..  If this does hold (I expect it will not), these six alternates will be seated instead:

[A-1] David Johnson - Uncommitted
[A-2] Valerie Stile - Rubio
[A-3] Andrea Moeckel - Uncommitted
[A-4] Huberto O'Neal - Rubio
[A-5] Steven K. Hardy - Trump
[A-6] Robert Max Schanfarber - Cruz

The rules support the Yobs here; this is a pretty blatant attempt by John Canegata to steal the election.  Regardless, this is probably going to go to a credentials fight at the convention.

Candidate Withdrawal / Brokered Convention

Delegates who listed a preference are bound to that candidate on the first ballot, unless they withdraw prior to the caucus (on March 10).  This means, in particular, that any delegates Rubio wins remain bound to him.

Useful Links
The Green Papers: VI-R
FHQ: VI
Caucus Ballot
VI GOP Caucus Rules

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District of Columbia (R): March 12

Overview
19 Delegates (0.77% of total)
Closed Caucus
19 At-Large (Proportional, 15% threshold; WTA if majority)

At the Caucus

The "caucus" takes place in the Loews Madison Hotel; registered Republicans may vote at any point between 10 AM and 4 PM.

Delegate Allocation

If a candidate wins a majority of the vote, they receive all 19 delegates.  Otherwise, each candidate receives a share of the delegates proportional to their share of the vote among all candidates meeting a 15% threshold.  There are two sections in the DC GOP rules that contradict each other, regarding the rounding.  The first says that all fractional delegates are rounded up; delegates are given out starting with the winner and going down until all delegates are allocated.  The second says that delegates are rounded to the nearest whole number, with rounding errors resolved by giving (or taking) a delegate closest to (furthest from) receiving an additional delegate.  FHQ goes with the latter interpretation; I'm going with the former.

Results

Rubio 10 - Kasich 9

Rubio won a narrow victory over Kasich, with Trump and Cruz falling below threshold.  This is Rubio's 2nd Rule 40 state, after Puerto Rico.

Delegate Selection

The caucus also elects the delegates.  In practice, each candidate has a slate of delegates they want elected, and hand them out to voters in line; there are other delegate candidates not on any of these slates.  The following delegates were elected, with associated slates are listed in parentheses:

1.       Rich Counts (Rubio)
2.       Rina Shah Bharara (Rubio)
3.       Chip Nottingham (Kasich)
4.       Kris Hammond (Kasich)
5.       William Behrens (Rubio)
6.       Holly Greaves (Rubio)
7.       Robert Chamberlin (Rubio)
8.       Betsy Wright Hawkings (Kasich)
9.       Rachel Hoff (Rubio)
10.   Maureen Blum (Rubio)
11.   Brian Walsh (Rubio)
12.   Teri Galvez (Rubio)
13.   Robert Sinners (Kasich)
14.   Christian Berle (Kasich)
15.   Kevin Cain (Rubio)
16.   Tim Costa (Rubio)

No one not on the Rubio or Kasich slates were elected.  Note that this means some Rubio-slate delegates will be bound to Kasich on the first ballot.  The alternates also break down 11-5 Rubio-Kasich.

Candidate Withdrawal / Brokered Convention

Delegates are bound through the first ballot, unless their candidate withdraws.  DC GOP has clarified that withdraw really does mean officially withdraw; Rubio's suspension does not cut it.

Useful Links
The Green Papers: DC-R
DC Delegate Selection Plan
FHQ: DC

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Guam (R): March 12

Overview
9 Delegates (0.36% of total)
Closed Caucus
6 At-Large (directly elected)
3 RNC Members (unbound)

Delegate Allocation and Selection

The caucus, operating as a convention, chooses the six delegates.  They are not officially bound to any candidate.

Elected Delegates

Gov. Eddie Calvo - Cruz
Sen. Frank Blas Jr.
Sen. Tony Ada
Juan Carlos Benitez
Benny Pinaula
Telo Taitague

RNC Members (unbound)

Mike Benito
Margaret Metcalfe
David Sablan

Useful Links
The Green Papers: GU-R

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(Very) Preliminary Nevada Results

With 30% reporting...

Candidate	Percent	Delegates
Trump	43.7%	13
Rubio	24.5%	7
Cruz	22.5%	7
Carson	5.7%	2
Kasich	3.6%	1

Trump would gain a delegate if he breaks 45%, lose one if he falls below 41.67%; Rubio or Cruz would gain a delegate if they break 25%, lose one if they fall below 21.67%.  Carson loses a delegate if he falls below 5%; Kasich falls below threshold if he falls below 3.33%.

Update (78.4% reporting): Trump seems to have gained a delegate from Carson, though the margin is only around 40 votes.

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Florida (R): March 15

Overview
99 Delegates (4.00% of total)
Closed Primary
99 At-Large (Winner-Take-All)

Delegate Allocation

The winner of the primary receives all 99 delegates.

Delegate Selection

Within a week after the primary, all candidates (not just the winner) provide lists of delegates they would like to send to Cleveland.  These lists are advisory lists only.

81 CD delegates are chosen by CD caucuses and the 15 At-Large delegates are chosen by the FL GOP Executive board from these lists, at some point before June 3.  Note that they are not obliged to choose delegates from the list provided by the winner of the state's primary; they could nominate another candidate's delegates, or (it seems) choose different people entirely.

Candidate Withdrawal / Contested Convention

The delegates are bound on the first three ballots, unless the candidate withdraws or releases his delegates.

Useful Links
The Green Papers: FL-R
FHQ: FL
Republican Party of Florida Rules

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Illinois (R): March 15

Overview
69 Delegates (2.79% of total)
Open Primary
15 At-Large (Winner Take All)
54 District (directly elected)

Delegate Allocation and Selection

A presidential preference poll is on the ballot; the winner of this poll wins all 15 At-Large delegates.  12 of these are chosen at the State Convention on May 22.

Additionally, voters directly vote for 3 delegates running for a slot within their CD; the delegate candidates have their Presidential preference listed on the ballot.  All current candidates have a complete slate of delegates.  The top three delegate vote-getters in each CD get their ticket punched to Cleveland.  Voters are not obliged to vote for delegates who match the candidate they voted for in the preference poll.  Often, there are some personally popular delegate candidates who can get elected on the strength of their name alone (e.g. in 2008, Dennis Hastert, a Romney delegate, was elected in his CD despite a McCain win there in the preference poll).

Candidate Withdrawal / Contested Convention

Despite what it says in the IL GOP rules, their filing with the RNC indicates that both At-Large and CD delegates are bound at the convention.

FHQ says the At-Large delegates are bound on the first ballot, unless the candidate withdraws, and that the CD delegates are bound until released.

Useful Links
The Green Papers: IL-R
IL Delegate Selection Guide
RNC Process Book
FHQ: IL

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Missouri (R): March 15

Overview
52 Delegates (2.10% of total)
Half-Open Primary
12 At-Large (WTA; WTA for entire delegation if majority)
40 District (WTA)

Delegate Allocation

If a candidate receives a majority of the vote, they receive all 52 delegates.  Otherwise, the statewide winner receives 12 delegates, and the winner of each of the 8 CDs receives 5 (not 3!) delegates.

Delegate Selection

24 Delegates are chosen at CD conventions (April 30) and 25 at the State Convention (May 21).  Delegates to these are chosen at April 9 caucuses.

Candidate Withdrawal / Contested Convention

Delegates are bound on the first ballot unless their candidate withdraws, releases them, dies, or "becomes inactive."

Useful Links
The Green Papers: MO-R
FHQ: MO
MO Delegate Selection Guide

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In the final few percent of precincts in Nevada, Carson managed to pull ahead of Cruz in the race for the final delegate by about 20 votes.

Final count: Trump 14 - Rubio 7 - Cruz 6 - Carson 2 - Kasich 1.

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North Carolina (R): March 15

Overview
72 Delegates (2.91% of total)
Half-Open Primary
72 At-Large (Proportional, no threshold)

Delegate Allocation

Delegates are allocated proportionally to a candidate's share of the vote.  FHQ says rounding is to the nearest delegate.  If this results in too many (or too few) delegates being awarded, remove one from the person furthest from (or closest to) receiving an additional delegate.

Delegate Selection

Delegates are chosen at District Conventions in April and the State Convention in May.

Candidate Withdrawal / Contested Convention

Delegates are bound on the first ballot.  There is no provision for releasing delegates before then.

Useful Links
The Green Papers: NC-R
NC Plan of Organization (not helpful)
FHQ: NC
NC Delegate Selection FAQ

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Northern Marianas (R): March 15

Overview
9 Delegates (0.36% of total)
Closed Caucus
9 At-Large (WTA)

Delegate Allocation and Selection

The caucus first has a presidential preference poll; the winner of the poll receives all 9 delegates.  The caucus then elects 6 of the 9 delegates (the other 3 being the automatic RNC member delegates).

Results (3/15):

Trump won all 9 delegates.  This gives him his 8th Rule 40 state, and he is now eligible to have his name placed in for nomination at the National Convention.

Candidate Withdrawal / Contested Convention

Delegates are bound on the first ballot.  If the candidate withdraws before the convention, the delegation meets as a group to decide whom to support on the first ballot.  It is unclear whether such a provision is in conflict with any anti-unit-rule provisions of the RNC rules.

Useful Links
The Green Papers: MP-R
FHQ: MP
CMNI Caucus Rules

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Ohio (R): March 15

Overview
66 Delegates (2.67% of total)
Half-Open Primary
66 At-Large (WTA)

Delegate Allocation

The winner of the primary receives all 66 delegates.

Delegate Selection

Candidates pre-approve a slate of delegates; the winner has his slate sent to the National Convention.

Candidate Withdrawal / Contested Convention

In the absence of any contrary information, we must assume Ohio's delegates are bound indefinitely.  FHQ claims this is still being determined by the OH GOP and the OH SoS.

Useful Links
The Green Papers: OH-R
FHQ: OH

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American Samoa (R): March 22

Overview
9 Delegates (0.36% of total)
Open Caucus
6 At-Large (directly elected, unbound)
3 RNC members (unbound)

Delegate Allocation and Selection

"The delegates from American Samoa are chosen in such a way so that they best reflect the presidential preference of the Caucus/Convention participants."  This doesn't really mean anything in practice; note that there is no presidential preference poll, to my knowledge, so the delegates are not required to be bound by RNC rules.

The delegates "may be instructed by resolution of the body which elected them as to the disposition of their vote on any business before the National Convention." This presumably includes their vote for a nominee; whether such instruction is binding is unclear.

The American Samoa GOP has clarified on Facebook that the delegation will be unpledged (thanks to cinyc for the tip).

RNC Members (unbound)

Utu Abe Malae
Amata Radewagen
Su'a Schuster

Delegates

All are officially unbound, though some have endorsed.

John Raynar - Trump
Taulapapa William Sword
Charles Warren - Cruz
Tina Ioane
Ann Longnecker
Joan Galea'i Holland

Useful Links
The Green Papers: AS-R

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Arizona (R): March 22

Overview
58 Delegates (2.35% of total)
Closed Primary
58 At-Large (WTA)

Delegate Allocation

The winner of the primary receives all 58 delegates.

Results

Trump won the primary and all 58 delegates.

Delegate Selection

The State Convention on April 30 chooses the delegates.

Candidate Withdrawal / Contested Convention

Candidates are bound for the first ballot, unless the candidate withdraws or releases them.

Useful Links
The Green Papers: AZ-R
Arizona Revised Statutes
FHQ: AZ

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Utah (R): March 22

Overview
40 Delegates (1.62% of total)
Half-Open Caucus
40 At-Large (Proportional, 15% threshold; 0% threshold if 2 or fewer clear it; WTA if majority)

Delegate Allocation

If a candidate receives a majority of the vote, they receive all 40 delegates.  Otherwise, if 3 or more candidates clear a 15% threshold, candidates receive a share of delegates proportional to their vote share among all candidates meeting a 15% threshold.  Otherwise, candidates receive a share of delegates proportional to their vote share.  In both cases, delegates are given out, starting with the winner, with all fractional delegates rounded up, until all delegates are allocated.

Results

Cruz won a majority and all 40 delegates.

Delegate Selection

Delegates are chosen at the State Convention on April 23.

Candidate Withdrawal / Contested Convention

Delegates are bound on the first ballot.  If a candidate is not a candidate before the National Convention, their delegates will be re-allocated proportionally.

Useful Links
The Green Papers: UT-R
FHQ: UT
UT GOP Bylaws

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Wisconsin (R): April 5

Overview
42 Delegates (1.70% of total)
Open Primary
18 At-Large (WTA)
24 District (WTA)

Delegate Allocation

The statewide winner receives 24 delegates.  The winner in each of Wisconsin's 8 CDs receives 3 delegates.

Delegate Selection

Before the primary, the District Executive Committee draws up a list of 20 delegate candidates.  After the primary presents this list to the winner of the district after the primary; that candidate recommends three from that list.  The District Executive Committed then chooses three delegates from that list, "giving due consideration" to the candidate's preference.

The winning candidate (Cruz), along with the State Executive Committee, chooses his At-Large delegates.  Cruz has final approval over the list of their delegates.

Results

Trump won CDs 3 and 7, picking up 6 delegates.  Cruz won the remaining 36 delegates.

Candidate Withdrawal / Contested Convention

Delegates are bound until released or until their candidate receives less than one-third of the votes on a ballot at the National Convention.

Useful Links
The Green Papers: WI-R
WI GOP Constitution
FHQ: WI

[Erc]

The first post says the total number of Nevada delegates is 50 but I think it's 30?

Fixed.  Thanks!

The state-by-state summaries are now complete until mid-April (next up would be New York's April 19 primary).  Considering the state of the race will presumably be quite different by then, I'm going to hold off on the remainder for a while, unless there's a high demand for them.

[Erc]

A Really Terrible Super Tuesday Forecast

Let's say, that in every CD voting on Super Tuesday, the result is

Trump	34.3%
Rubio	26.8%
Cruz	24.1%
Kasich	10.1%
Carson	4.7%

And let's say that in Texas we flip Trump and Cruz.  You may, of course, take issue with these numbers.  More importantly, the issue is uniformity; Cruz being in third *everywhere* costs him a lot of CD delegates (and similarly for Trump in Texas).

The corresponding delegate results would be (up to some uncertainty about OK's rules):

State	Trump	Rubio	Cruz
Alabama	26	16	8
Alaska	11	9	8
Arkansas	19	13	8
Georgia	45	23	8
Massachusetts	15	12	11
Minnesota	13	12	12
Oklahoma	16	14	13
Tennessee	31	19	8
Texas	13	51	91
Vermont	6	5	5
Virginia	17	13	12
Total	212	187	184

In addition, Kasich picks up 10 delegates (5 VA, 4 MA, 1 MN), and Carson picks up 2 in VA.

We see the importance here of Texas, which could be a huge haul for Cruz.  The fight for second in Texas' CDs is also quite important.

[Erc]

As another example, running the numbers with 538's polls-plus forecast (in the states where it's available) and splitting 2nd place in TX CDs evenly gives:

Trump 241
Rubio 173
Cruz 166
Kasich 11
Carson 4

Cruz misses viability (20%) in a number of southern states.

[Erc]

Erc, what is the %age of all Republican delegates who will go into the convention unbound?  According to Upshot here:

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/02/27/upshot/republican-delegate-calculator-how-trump-can-win.html

it's 7%.  Does that sound right to you?  I assume that that consists of the delegates from states that don't hold preference votes like CO/ND/WY, plus the 3 party leaders from each state?  What about the delegates in states that directly elect their delegates, like Illinois?  Are they bound by the presidential preference they list on the ballot?

Going through this state by state:

• Colorado:  Potentially all 37 delegates could be unbound, though delegate candidates may announce a pledge to a particular candidate, in which case they are bound for the first ballot.  Presumably the 3 RNC members will be unbound.
• North Dakota: All 28 delegates will be unbound.
• Wyoming: Presumably, all 29 delegates will be unbound, though FHQ thinks otherwise, and if they are holding a straw poll as realisticidealist suggests, that will change.
• Louisiana: There's going to be a substantial number (on the order of 6) delegates that are unbound here, due to Louisiana's sneaky rules.
• Virgin Islands: the 3 RNC members are unbound; due to incomplete delegate slates, it's also likely that 3 or more Uncommitted delegates may be elected, as well.
• Guam: All 9 delegates will be unbound.
• American Samoa: Presumably, all 9 delegates will be unbound.
• Illinois: All 54 CD delegates are officially unbound; a preference is listed on the ballot but is not binding.
• Pennsylvania: All 54 CD delegates, being directly elected, are officially unbound; no preference is listed on the ballot.
• West Virginia: Also directly elects its delegates, but their commitments are apparently binding.

That's around 8-10%, depending on what happens in Colorado.

[Erc]

So, I'm confused about the Wyoming GOP caucus. Green Papers indicates that there is in fact a straw poll associated with the caucus, and this page has results for a straw poll of some sort. Seven counties are meeting today, so if they are holding a straw poll, it should be updated today.

Note how Christie has a substantial result in that straw poll, despite dropping out before the first County Caucus (Niobrara, on 2/16).

I believe this was a straw poll more in the manner of the late Ames' straw poll; see a link from December promoting it here on WY GOP's Facebook feed.

If Wyoming does end up reporting some (different) straw poll results from its caucuses, they will have to bind their delegation accordingly.

[Erc]

Major update on the Democratic superdelegates front, taking into account information from the Bloomberg delegate tracker (which presumably gets its information from the AP).

This means Hillary now has the support of over two-thirds of the superdelegates.

[Erc]

SC-D Delegate Targets

Assuming Clinton places between 50 and 75% of the two-way vote in all CDs:

2-1 split is guaranteed in CD 3.
If Clinton breaks 62.5% in CD 4, she wins 3/4 delegates there.
Clinton would have to break 70% in CDs 1,2,5,7 in order to win 4/5 delegates there.
In CD 6, 56.25% gives her 5/8 delegates, 68.75% gives her 6/8 delegates.

At-Large PLEO: 64.3% would give her 5/7 delegates.
At-Large: 59.1% would give her 7/11, 68.2% would give her 8/11.

Regardless, tonight is the night Clinton takes the pledged delegate lead, permanently.

[Erc]

March 5 Democratic Primaries

Kansas (D)

Overview
37 Delegates (0.78% of total)
Closed Caucus (though registration may be changed at the caucus)
7 At-Large
4 PLEO At-Large
22 by CD
4 Superdelegates

Details

Groups of 7 and 4 delegates are allocated based on the statewide caucus vote.  The CD delegates are distributed among the CDs as follows: 7 for CD 2; 6 for CD 3; 5 for CD 4; 4 for CD 1.

Superdelegates

Clinton (1): Teresa Garcia Krusor

Uncommitted (3): Chair Lee Kinch, Vice Chair Melody McCray-Miller, Bill Roy Jr.

The Green Papers: KS-D

Louisiana (D)

Overview
59 Delegates (1.24% of total)
Closed Primary
11 At-Large
7 PLEO At-Large
33 by CD
8 Superdelegates

Details

Groups of 11 and 7 delegates are allocated based on the statewide caucus vote.  The CD delegates are distributed among the CDs as follows: 8 for CD 2; 6 for CD 5; 5 for CDs 3,4,6; 4 for CD 1.

Superdelegates

Clinton (7): Rep. Cedric Richmond, Chair Karen Carter Peterson, Vice Chair Shane Riddle, Deborah Langhoff, Arthur Morrell, Arlanda Williams, Gov. Jon Bel Edwards

Other (1): Ben Jeffers

The Green Papers: LA-D

Nebraska (D)

Overview
30 Delegates (0.63% of total)
Closed Caucus (you may change registration at the Caucus)
5 At-Large
3 PLEO At-Large
17 by CD
5 Superdelegates

Details

Groups of 5 and 3 delegates are allocated based on the statewide caucus vote.  The CD delegates are distributed among the CDs as follows: 6 for CDs 1,2; 5 for CD 3.

The caucus vote is binding, although there is the possibility that rounding errors may affect results in the County (May 19-29) and State (June 18) Conventions.

Superdelegates

Clinton (3): Rep. Brad Ashford, Patricia Zieg, Ronald Kaminski

Uncommitted (2): Chair Vincent Powers, Vice Chair Maureen Monahan

Useful Links
The Green Papers: NE-D
NE Delegate Selection Plan