The Delegate Fight: 2016

[Erc]

Indiana selected its remaining, At-Large delegates on Wednesday, but is not releasing the names of the delegates involved due to the extreme levels of harassment (including death threats!) received by some of the delegates selected over the weekend.

Names will be released in about two weeks, after the delegates have been certified by the RNC (and hopefully some of the furor has died down or been redirected at delegates in other states).

[Erc]

Our glorious leader confirms (to my surprise) that Sanders did indeed clear threshold in CD 3 in MS; he must have gotten lucky with the precinct breakdowns in Hinds and Madison counties.

That makes the total in Mississippi Clinton 31 - Sanders 5.

[Erc]

NBC has recently confirmed that Rubio's delegates in Oklahoma are indeed unbound on the first ballot.

Now may be a good time to go over Rubio's delegates again.

Rubio Certainly Loses Them: (36 delegates)

The delegates he won in Minnesota, Louisiana, and Oklahoma have been released.  If the rules are changed and Rubio does appear on the first ballot, he would get those Oklahoma and Minnesota delegates back, but the Louisiana ones are gone regardless.

In Alabama, Rubio's one delegate is de facto released; a candidate's delegation may vote to release themselves by a vote (two-thirds majority required), so his one delegate is always free to release himself at any time.

In Wyoming, Rubio's one delegate has been released as he is no longer "in the race."

Other States:

New Hampshire is a bit confusing.  State law says that "If a presidential candidate…withdraws as a presidential candidate at any time prior to the convention, his pledged delegates shall be released by the candidate…"  Rubio hasn't officially withdrawn (and neither, to my knowledge, has Jeb Bush), so it would seem they keep their delegates.

However, the pledge form signed by the delegates is a bit weaker. "I pledge myself, if selected as delegate or alternate delegate to said convention, whenever I shall vote, to vote for the nomination of (inserting the name of any person) as the candidate for said party for president so long as he shall be a candidate before said convention."  Whether this means the delegates are released if Rubio (or Bush, or Kasich) do not appear on the first ballot is not 100% clear.  

In Alaska, candidates' delegates are reallocated if they "drop out"; this was initially done to Rubio's delegates after his suspension, but they were returned to him after he requested that he keep them.  The AK GOP rules suggest Rubio's delegates would still be released if he does not "maintain an active campaign," but the AK GOP press release suggests he will keep them regardless; the act of contacting the AK GOP is presumably a sign of an active campaign.


Accordingly, I'm moving Rubio's delegates back to him in Alaska and New Hampshire (he still had his in Nevada).

In Nevada, Rubio would have his delegates released if he discontinues his campaign after the State Convention in May.  As he discontinued his campaign before the State Convention he (and Carson) get to keep their delegates for now.  Rubio would lose them if he were to endorse someone after the State Convention, so keep an eye out for those.

In all other states, Rubio seems to keep his delegates unless he actually withdraws or releases his delegates.

[Erc]

To clear up the confusion in New Hampshire, I contacted the New Hampshire GOP, and they clarified that delegates allocated to candidates that do not appear on the first ballot at the RNC are not still bound to vote for them on the first ballot.

[Erc]

At this point, is it possible that part of the RNC stretches into the next week and overlaps with the DNC?

Hotel reservations would get to be a problem, among many other things.

[Erc]

Indiana (D): May 3

Indiana is the first state in Stage III of the primary process; it and all future states receive a 20% delegate bonus.

Overview
92 Delegates (1.93% of total)
Open Primary
56 District
18 At-Large
9 PLEO At-Large
9 Superdelegates

Details

Groups of 18 and 9 delegates are apportioned based on the statewide primary vote.  The CD delegates are apportioned among the CDs as follows: 8 in CDs 1,7; 7 in CD 5; 6 in CDs 2,8,9; 5 in CDs 3,4,6.

Superdelegates

Clinton (7): Sen. Joe Donnelly, Rep. André Carson, Lacy Johnson, Dean Boerste, Vice Chair Cordelia Burks, Shari Mellin, David Frye

Other (2): Rep. Pete Visclosky, Chair John Zody

Useful Links
The Green Papers: IN
IN Delegate Selection Plan

[Erc]

Guam (D): May 7

Overview
12 Delegates (0.25% of total)
Closed Caucus
7 At-Large
5 Superdelegates

Details

The 7 delegates are apportioned based on the caucus vote.

Superdelegates

Bloomberg: Clinton 3 - Uncommitted 2

Confirmed Clinton (2): Del. Madeleine Bordallo, Chair Rory Respicio

Other (3): Vice Chair Nerissa Bretania-Underwood, David L.G. Shimizu (Clinton 2008), Taling M. Taitano

Useful Links
The Green Papers: GU
GU Delegate Selection Plan

[Erc]

West Virginia (D): May 10

Overview
37 Delegates (0.78% of total)
Half-Open Primary
20 District
6 At-Large
3 PLEO At-Large
8 Superdelegates

Details

Groups of 6 and 3 delegates are apportioned based on the statewide primary vote.  The CD delegates are apportioned among the CDs as follows: 7 in CDs 1,2; 6 in CD 3.

Superdelegates

Bloomberg: Clinton 5 - Sanders 1 - Uncommitted 2

Confirmed Clinton (1): Sen. Joe Manchin

Sanders (1): Vice Chair Christopher J Regan

Other (6): Gov. Earl Ray Tomblin, Chair Belinda Biafore (Clinton 2008), Pat Maroney (Clinton 2008), Elaine Harris (Clinton 2008), John Perdue, Natalie Tennant

Useful Links
The Green Papers: WV
WV Delegate Selection Plan

[Erc]

May 17 Democratic Primaries

Kentucky (D)

Overview
60 Delegates (1.26% of total)
Closed Primary
37 District
12 At-Large
6 PLEO At-Large
5 Superdelegates

Details

Groups of 12 and 6 delegates are apportioned based on the statewide primary vote.  The CD delegates are apportioned among the CDs as follows: 9 in CD 3; 7 in CD 6; 6 in CDs 2,4; 5 in CD 1; 4 in CD 5.

Superdelegates

Clinton (2): Rep. John Yarmouth, Charlotte Lundergan

Uncommitted (3): Chair Patrick Hughes, Vice Chair Brandi Harless, Charles E. Moore

Useful Links
The Green Papers: KY
KY Delegate Selection Plan

Oregon (D)

Overview
74 Delegates (1.55% of total)
Closed Primary
41 District
13 At-Large
7 PLEO At-Large
13 Superdelegates

Details

Groups of 13 and 7 delegates are apportioned based on the statewide primary vote.  The CD delegates are apportioned among the CDs as follows: 11 in CD 3; 9 in CD 1; 8 in CD 4; 7 in CD 4.  The 2nd Congressional District, due to its large size, is split into two halves, each with 3 delegates each.  One half contains the counties of Harney, Jackson, Klamath, Lake, Malheur, and that portion of Josephine within the district; the remainder is in the other half.  Since this divides an even-delegate district into two odd-delegate districts, it favors the winner in the event of a narrow (50-58.3%) win.

Superdelegates

Clinton (6): Sen. Ron Wyden, Rep. Earl Blumenauer, Rep. Suzanne Bonamici, Rep. Kurt Schrader, Ellen Rosenblum, Gov. Kate Brown

Sanders (1): Sen. Jeff Merkley

Uncommitted (6): Rep. Peter DeFazio, Chair Frank Dixon, Vice Chair Karen Packer, Laura Calvo, Lupita Maurer, Larry Taylor.

Useful Links
The Green Papers: OR
OR Delegate Selection Plan

[Erc]

Virgin Islands (D): June 4

Overview
12 Delegates (0.25% of total)
Closed Caucus
7 by District
5 Superdelegates

Details

4 delegates are apportioned based on the total results in St. Thomas and St. John; 3 delegates are apportioned based on the results in St. Croix.

Superdelegates

Bloomberg: Clinton 2 - Sanders 1 - Uncommitted 2

Confirmed Clinton (1): Del. Stacey Plaskett

Sanders (1): Emmett Hansen II

Other (3): Chair Cecil Benjamin, Vice Chair Riise Richards, Carol Burke

VI Democratic leadership is also in disarray, but this seems to be the correct set of superdelegates.

Useful Links
The Green Papers: VI

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Puerto Rico (D): June 5

Overview
67 Delegates (1.41% of total)
Open Primary
40 District
13 At-Large
7 Pledged PLEO
7 Superdelegates

Details

The district delegates are allocated based on the vote in each Senatorial District: 8 in SD 1 (San Juan); 6 in SDs 2 (Bayamón) and 8 (Carolina); 4 in SDs 3 (Arecibo), 4 (Mayagüez), 5 (Ponce), 6 (Guayama), 7 (Humacao).  The 13 At-Large and 7 Pledged PLEO delegates are allocated based on the preferences of the elected district delegates.

Superdelegates

Clinton (3): Del. Pedro Pierluisi, Chair Robeto Prats, Kenneth McClintock

Uncommitted (4): Gov. Alejandro Garcia Padilla, Vice Chair Luisette Cabañas-Colón, Andres Lopez, Liza Ortiz Camacho

Useful Links
The Green Papers: PR
PR Delegate Selection Plan

[Erc]

June 7 Democratic Contests

Montana, North Dakota, and South Dakota are considered part of a "regional cluster," and receive an additional 15% delegate bonus.

California (D)

Overview
548 Delegates (11.49% of total)
Half-Open Primary
317 District
105 At-Large
53 PLEO At-Large
73 Superdelegates

Details

Groups of 105 and 73 delegates are apportioned based on the statewide primary vote.  The CD delegates are apportioned among the CDs as follows: 9 in CD 12; 8 in CDs 2,13,18; 7 in CDs 5,11,14,15,28,30,33,37,53; 6 in CDs 1,3,4,6,7,9,17,19,20,24,26,27,32,38,39,43,44,45,47,48,49,52; 5 in CDs 8,10,16,22,23,25,29,31,34,35,36,40,41,42,46,50,51; 4 in CD 21.

Superdelegates

Bloomberg: Clinton 51 - Uncommitted 22

Confirmed Clinton (49): Sen. Dianne Feinstein, Sen. Barbara Boxer, Reps. Jared Huffman, John Garamendi, Mike Thompson, Doris Matsui, Ami Bera, Jerry McNerney, Jackie Speier, Mike Honda, Anna Eshoo, Zoe Lofgren, Lois Capps, Julia Brownley, Judy Chu, Adam Schiff, Tony Cardenas, Brad Sherman, Pete Aguilar, Grace Napolitano, Ted Lieu, Xavier Becerra, Karen Bass, Linda Sánchez, Lucille Roybal, Mark Takano, Maxine Waters, Janice Hahn, Loretta Sanchez, Scott Peters, Mark DeSaulnier, Susan Davis, Jim Costa, and Raul Ruiz,Maria Echaveste, Laurence Zakson, John A. Pérez, Garry Shay, Shawn Bagley, Bob Mulholland, Christine Pelosi, Hilda Solis, Jess Durfee, Alice Huffman, Andrew Lachman, Rosalind Wyman, Rep. Eric Swalwell, Eric Garcetti, Evan Low

Other (24): Gov. Jerry Brown, Reps. Nancy Pelosi, Barbara Lee, Sam Farr, Norma Torres, Alan Lowenthal, and Juan Vargas, Pat Hobbs, Kerman Maddox, Matt Johnson, Tefere Gebre, Mattie McFadden Lawson, Chair John Burton, Vice Chair Alexandra Gallardo-Rooker, Steven K. Alari, Rachel Binah, Joe Buscaino, Becca Doten, Maria Elena Durazo, Mary Ellen Early, Aleita Huguenin (Clinton 2008), Christopher Stampolis, Keith Umemoto, Greg Pettis

Useful Links
The Green Papers: CA
CA Delegate Selection Plan

Montana (D)

Overview
27 Delegates (0.57% of total)
Closed Primary
15 by District
4 At-Large
2 PLEO At-Large
6 Superdelegates

Details

The state is divided into two "districts," roughly corresponding to the two congressional districts Montana had before the 1990 Census.  The Western District (8 delegates) has Beaverhead, Broadwater, Deer Lodge, Flathead, Glacier, Granite, Jefferson, Lake, Lewis and Clark, Lincoln, Madison, Mineral, Missoula, Pondera, Powell, Ravalli, Sanders, and Silver Bow counties.  The Eastern District (7 delegates) has the remainder.  The 4 At-Large and 2 pledged PLEO delegates are allocated based on the statewide vote.

Superdelegates

Bloomberg: Clinton 1 - Uncommitted 5

Superdelegates (6): Gov. Steve Bullock, Sen. Jon Tester, Chair Jim Larson, Vice Chair Jacquie Helt, Jorge Quintana, Jean Lemire Dahlman

(The one counted by the AP may be Jacquie Helt, who denies publicly endorsing Clinton).

Useful Links
The Green Papers: MT
MT Delegate Selection Plan

New Jersey (D)

Overview
142 Delegates (2.98% of total)
Half-Open Primary
84 by District
28 At-Large
14 PLEO At-Large
16 Superdelegates

Details

The 28 At-Large and 14 pledged PLEO delegates are allocated based on the statewide vote.  The District delegates are not allocated based on Congressional Districts, but instead on special "delegate districts," each of which is comprised of two state Legislative districts, as follows: 5 in LDs 5/6,7/8,14/15,20/22,28/29,34/35; 4 in LDs 1/2,3/4,9/10,11/13,16/17,18/19,21/27,25/26,31/33,32/36,37/38,39/40; 3 in LDs 12/30,23/24.

Superdelegates

Clinton (9): Sen. Cory Booker, Reps. Frank Pallone, Bonnie Watson Coleman, Donald Payne Jr. and Bill Pascrell Jr, Barbra Casbar Siperstein, Chair John Currie, Vice Chair Lizette Delgado Polanco, Tonio Burgos

Sanders (2): John Wisniewski, Reni Erdos

Uncommitted (5): Sen. Bob Menendez (Clinton 2008), Rep. Albio Sires (Clinton 2008), Rep. Donald Norcross, Marcia Marley, George Norcross

Useful Links
The Green Papers: NJ
NJ Delegate Selection Plan (draft)

New Mexico (D)

Overview
43 Delegates (0.90% of total)
Closed Primary
23 by District
7 At-Large
4 PLEO At-Large
9 Superdelegates

Details

The 7 At-Large and 4 pledged PLEO delegates are allocated based on the statewide vote.  The CD delegates are apportioned as follows: 8 for CDs 1,3; 7 for CD 2.

Superdelegates


Clinton (7): Sen. Tom Udall, Sen. Martin Heinrich, Rep. Michelle Lujan Grisham, Raymond Sanchez, Rep. Ben Ray Luján, Ex-DNC Chair Fred R. Harris, Joni Marie Gutierrez

Uncommitted (2): Chair Debra Haaland, Vice Chair Juan Sanchez

Debra Haaland previously donated to Ready [for Hillary] PAC, but has since stressed that she is Uncommitted.

Useful Links
The Green Papers: NM
NM Delegate Selection Plan

North Dakota (D)

Overview
23 Delegates (0.48% of total)
Open Caucus
12 "District"
4 At-Large
2 PLEO At-Large
5 Superdelegates

Details

The 12 district delegates are allocated based on the statewide caucus vote (reweighted by their vote for Democrats in the 2012 Presidential and Gubernatorial races). The 4 At-Large and 2 pledged PLEO delegates are allocated based on the preferences of the district delegates.

Superdelegates

Clinton (1): Sen. Heidi Heitkamp

Sanders (1): Chad Noland

Uncommitted (3): Chair Kylie Oversen, Vice Chair Warren Larson, Renee Pfenning

Useful Links
The Green Papers: ND
ND Delegate Selection Plan

South Dakota (D)

Overview
25 Delegates (0.52% of total)
Closed Primary
14 "District"
4 At-Large
2 PLEO At-Large
5 Superdelegates

Details

Pools of 14, 4, and 2 delegates are allocated based on the statewide vote.

Superdelegates

Clinton (1): Tom Daschle

Uncommitted (4): Chair Ann Tornberg, Vice Chair Joe Lowe, Sharon Stroschein, Nick Nemec

Useful Links
The Green Papers: SD
SD Delegate Selection Plan

[Erc]

http://www.nationalreview.com/article/434091/gop-conventions-rule-40-will-not-determine-nominee

Can't say I disagree with anything there.

The specter of Trump not even getting on the first ballot due to Rule 40 shenanigans seems slim, especially if he does well on April 26.

[Erc]

Unknown Delegates

In my continuing effort to find out the identities of all the delegates, some are beginning to slip through the cracks.  If anyone has any leads on the delegates chosen in the following jurisdictions, it'd be much appreciated:

Oklahoma's 4th CD (3 delegates)
Florida: CDs 5-10, 15-18, 20-22 (39 delegates)
North Carolina: CDs 1,2,3,4,7,8,9,13 (24 delegates)
Indiana: All CDs 1-9 (27 delegates).

Potentially, some of Idaho's delegates have been selected by the campaigns as well, though I'm unsure about this.

I'm keeping a running list of these going in the "Unknown Delegates" tab on my spreadsheet; this list may grow or shrink as time goes on.

Merry Christmas Erc.
Names of all 57 Indiana Delegates: http://fox59.com/2016/04/14/here-are-indianas-57-delegates-why-their-vote-for-president-matters-more-than-yours/

Awesome!  Guess that supposed embargo didn't last long (or the list was leaked).

[Erc]

Taniel tracked down the OK-4 delegates last night, so the only unidentified delegates are in NC and FL.

[Erc]

What do you mean that the at large Puerto Rico delegates are decided by the district delegates?

The district delegates vote at some point, and the At-Large delegates are allocated proportionally on the basis of that vote.  Washington and North Dakota use the same system.

[Erc]

Four out of five of Rubio's delegates say that they are firmly Uncommitted; the fifth, Stephanie Berault, seems to lean Cruz.

[Erc]

So Erc, now that a new batch of Rubio delegates are being declared free agents on the first ballot, what's the latest estimate of the total number of delegates at the convention who are likely to be unpledged on the first ballot?

I'd already declared most of these guys unpledged; in fact, my number's gone down lately on a more careful reading of the Alaska GOP press release that gave Rubio his delegates back in Alaska.

My current number is 181; note that this includes Kasich's 12 delegates in New Hampshire and Vermont.

Of those 181: Cruz 29 - Kasich 6 - Trump 3 - Uncommitted 143.

The number should be pretty set in stone after Wyoming's convention tomorrow.  The only way this changes afterwards is if someone actively releases their delegates, or there's a surprise rules change or rule reinterpretation.  (Ohio suddenly deciding that delegates are released if Kasich doesn't make it onto the first ballot, for example...though this obviously seems quite unlikely).

Note that this number is counting the Yobs as the delegation out of the Virgin Islands (or more appropriately, treating the slate as undetermined); if you go with the sham Canegata slate, the number goes down to 177 (I believe Rubio's delegates would still be bound to him).

[Erc]

District of Columbia (D): June 14

Overview
46 Delegates (0.97% of total)
Closed Primary
13 by District
5 At-Large
2 Pledged PLEO
26 Superdelegates

Details

The district delegates are allocated based on the vote in each "Municipal District."  The first, consisting of Wards 1,2,6,8, has 7 delegates; the second, consisting of Wards 3,4,5,7, has 6 delegates.  The 5 At-Large and 2 Pledged PLEO delegates are allocated based on the vote in the entirety of the District of Columbia.

Superdelegates

Clinton (20): Mayor Muriel Bowser, Del. Eleanor Holmes Norton, Minyon Moore, Carrie Pugh, Jeff Berman, Harold Ickes, Lee Saunders, Maria Cardona, Lily Eskelsen Garcia, Steve Regenstreif, James Boland, Sunita Leeds, Anita Bonds, MaryEva Candon, Arlington Dixon, Earl Fowlkes, Karl Racine, Mary Beth Cahill, Marcus Mason, Rick Wade

Sanders (2): Larry Cohen, James J Zogby

Other (4): Shad. Sen. Paul Strauss, Shad. Sen. Michael Brown, Ed Potillo, DNC Vice Chair Donna Brazile

Note that Michael Brown is apparently still a superdelegate despite sources that list him as a registered independent.

Useful Links
The Green Papers: DC
DC Delegate Selection Plan

Unassigned (D)

Overview
2 Delegates (0.04% of total)
No Vote Held
2 Superdelegates

Details

The two delegates listed here are rather ex officio DNC seats, not tied to any particular state, that are currently vacant.  They correspond to the Vice Presidency of the College Democrats of America (vacant since the former VP, Marv McMoore, took the Presidency upon Nastasha McKenzie's resignation in September) and a DNC Vice Chair (vacant since Rep. Tulsi Gabbard's resignation from that post in February).

Additionally, three delegate positions are reserved for three officers of the DNC who are not otherwise DNC members.  The Chairperson, the five Vice Chairpersons, the National Finance Chair, the Treasurer, and the Secretary of the DNC are already DNC members by virtue of their position, so these are some of the "other appropriate officers" created by Article III Section 1(e) of the Charter of the Democratic Party.  However, in each of the last four conventions (2000-2012), none of these slots were filled, and all DNC publications in the last year suggest that they will also not be filled this year, as well.  As a result, I'm not including these three delegates in my count.

[Erc]

Politico has a good piece on the crazy rules in West Virginia.

Due to the requirement that no more than two delegates per CD can come from the same county, it seems likely that around six of Trump's delegates that would otherwise be elected will be disqualified.

Perhaps Trump winning 28 rather than 34 delegates out of West Virginia seems like the more likely outcome.

[Erc]

Clinton-Sanders enthusiasm gap continues in Colorado, where Sanders picks up 2 delegates at the State Convention today at Clinton's expense (1 extra At-Large and 1 extra pledged PLEO).  He had 63% at the state convention, compared to initial projections of 59%.

Final count: Sanders 41 - Clinton 25.

Sanders has picked up a total of 4 (perhaps 6, depending on rules interpretations) from being better mobilized at these conventions, so far.  

[Erc]

Clinton-Sanders enthusiasm gap continues in Colorado, where Sanders picks up 2 delegates at the State Convention today at Clinton's expense (1 extra At-Large and 1 extra pledged PLEO).  He had 63% at the state convention, compared to initial projections of 59%.

Final count: Sanders 41 - Clinton 25.

Sanders has picked up a total of 4 (perhaps 6, depending on rules interpretations) from being better mobilized at these conventions, so far.

Jeff Weaver was on WADR and when pressed on how they plan to get to a majority he said in part would be their efforts to squeeze more out of the caucus state conventions, "15-20" in total.   He also said they would do very well in NY, and win PA, CT, RI, CA, OR, MT, SD and ND.

They can very easily get one more out of Iowa, two more out of Nevada (though the latter might be subject to a credentials fight), but honestly that's about it.  15-20 isn't physically possible barring violence.

[Erc]

Clinton-Sanders enthusiasm gap continues in Colorado, where Sanders picks up 2 delegates at the State Convention today at Clinton's expense (1 extra At-Large and 1 extra pledged PLEO).  He had 63% at the state convention, compared to initial projections of 59%.

Final count: Sanders 41 - Clinton 25.

Sanders has picked up a total of 4 (perhaps 6, depending on rules interpretations) from being better mobilized at these conventions, so far.

Jeff Weaver was on WADR and when pressed on how they plan to get to a majority he said in part would be their efforts to squeeze more out of the caucus state conventions, "15-20" in total.   He also said they would do very well in NY, and win PA, CT, RI, CA, OR, MT, SD and ND.

They can very easily get one more out of Iowa, two more out of Nevada (though the latter might be subject to a credentials fight), but honestly that's about it.  15-20 isn't physically possible barring violence.

What about upcoming conventions from the other caucus states like ME, KS, NE,  ID, etc?

The majority of them bind their delegates based on the original caucus vote; the few remaining that don't would require larger swings than we've seen so far to move delegates.

[Erc]

Clinton-Sanders enthusiasm gap continues in Colorado, where Sanders picks up 2 delegates at the State Convention today at Clinton's expense (1 extra At-Large and 1 extra pledged PLEO).  He had 63% at the state convention, compared to initial projections of 59%.

Final count: Sanders 41 - Clinton 25.

Sanders has picked up a total of 4 (perhaps 6, depending on rules interpretations) from being better mobilized at these conventions, so far.

Jeff Weaver was on WADR and when pressed on how they plan to get to a majority he said in part would be their efforts to squeeze more out of the caucus state conventions, "15-20" in total.   He also said they would do very well in NY, and win PA, CT, RI, CA, OR, MT, SD and ND.

They can very easily get one more out of Iowa, two more out of Nevada (though the latter might be subject to a credentials fight), but honestly that's about it.  15-20 isn't physically possible barring violence.

Iowa they will get 3-4 atleast, I mean o Malley's delegates aren't done, so that would automatically flip it 23-21, he can get more, Nevada too.

Washington, Alaska, Idaho, Utah - Some of these states may have a blowout & Hillary may not even get 15%. I think 25-30 is possible with a push!

The "O'Malley" and "Uncommitted" delegates to the state convention are Sanders delegates in disguise.  Evidence so far suggests the Clinton folks are relatively well-organized in Iowa; the debacle in Polk County was a one-off that is unlikely to be repeated.

The one At-Large delegate is obviously doable...though remember that the State Convention happens on June 18, four days after the final primary and eleven days after the media will have declared the race over.  Obviously, a fair number of Sanders supporters will go into that bunker, but it's not guaranteed that they all will.

Their next target in Iowa would be CD 3; they made up some ground there thanks to Polk County, but still less than half of what they needed.  The enthusiasm gap is likely to matter less the further you get on in the process, as the folks agreeing to be delegates at the higher-tier conventions are more likely to show up and actually be committed.  I don't see Sanders pulling it off there.

I'll address the other states later; I'm going to need to do a careful reading of their rules again.

[Erc]

Democratic Caucus States and Allocation of Delegates

So, the Delegate Selection plans for all the states follow a pretty rote formula, down to exactly the same boilerplate in some cases.  For example, here's Iowa talking about how it allocates CD-level delegates.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Now, here's Nevada's:

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Note that that's exactly the same, just subbing "Nevada" for "Iowa" and, critically, dropping the final sentence.  Iowa's CD delegates are allocated based on the results at the District Conventions (although, looking at it again, one could make an argument that they are not), whereas Nevada's are determined by the original caucus vote.

Most of the other states have language very similar to this.  Going through them and summarizing; ones that could be changed by future multi-stage shenanigans are in bold.  (Everywhere, At-Large includes pledged PLEO delegates).

Iowa: CD delegates chosen based on CD conventions; At-Large delegates chosen based on State Convention.
Nevada: CD delegates chosen based on caucus; At-Large delegates chosen based on State Convention.
Colorado: CD delegates chosen based on caucus (I was wrong here, that error would have mattered if it had not been caught, sorry jfern); At-Large delegates chosen based on State Convention.
Minnesota: CD and At-Large delegates chosen based on caucus.
Kansas: CD and At-Large delegates chosen based on caucus.
Nebraska: CD and At-Large delegates chosen based on caucus.
Maine: CD and At-Large delegates chosen based on State Convention.
Idaho: CD delegates chosen based on caucus; At-Large delegates chosen based on State Convention.
Utah: CD and At-Large delegates chosen based on caucus.
Alaska: CD delegates chosen based on caucus; At-Large delegates chosen based on State Convention.
Hawaii: CD and At-Large delegates chosen based on caucus.
Washington: CD delegates chosen based on caucus; At-Large delegates chosen based on CD delegates.
Wyoming: CD delegates chosen based on caucus; At-Large delegates chosen based on State Convention.
North Dakota: CD delegates chosen based on caucus; At-Large delegates chosen based on CD delegates.

Sanders delegate targets, ordered by swing (how much additional percent of the vote in the jurisdiction he would need to net an additional delegate):

Iowa At-Large (0.1%)
Maine CD 1 (1.0%)
Iowa CD 3 (2.0%)
Alaska At-Large (3.9%)
Iowa CD 2 (4.4%)
Idaho PLEO (4.7%)
Maine At-Large (5.5%)
Iowa CD 1 (6.0%)
Idaho At-Large (6.4%)
Wyoming At-Large (6.8%)

For comparison, the gain so far in Nevada (likely to be the largest he is ever going to be able to pull off, due to how Nevada, and Clark County in particular, has WAY too many delegates attending these middle-tier conventions) is 7.9%.  I've not listed any swings larger than that figure.  For comparison, the swing in Colorado was around 4% (he only needed 1.7% to net both delegates).

Iowa At-Large is the obvious target, followed by Maine CD 1, neither of which I would be surprised if they flip.  Alaska is likely the next target; I'd honestly be surprised if anything else (or IA CD 3) flipped.