The Delegate Fight: 2016

[Erc]

Alabama (R): March 1

Overview
50 Delegates (2.02% of total)
Primary
29 At-Large (Proportional, 20% threshold; WTA if majority)
21 District (“Winner-Take-Most”)

Delegate Allocation
If any candidate receives a majority of the statewide vote in the primary, or is the only candidate to receive at least 20% of the vote, they receive all 29 At-Large delegates.  Otherwise, delegates are allocated among all candidates receiving at least 20% of the vote in the poll, proportional to their share of the vote among candidates meeting the threshold.  In the unlikely event no candidate receives 20% of the vote, delegates are allocated proportionally among all candidates.

If any candidate receives a majority of the vote in a Congressional District, or is the only candidate to receive more than 20% of the vote, they receive all 3 delegates from that CD.  Otherwise, the winner receives two delegates and the runner-up receives one.  If no candidate receives 20% of the vote, the three delegates are allocated proportionally among all candidates.

Rounding is always to the nearest whole number.  Any rounding errors are given to (or taken away from) the candidate with the most (or fewest) votes.  This “Alabama Method” of allocation and rounding is commonly used in many other states, as well.

Voters may also vote for “Uncommitted,” who is treated as a candidate for all allocation purposes.

Delegate Selection
The primary ballot also allows voters to vote on the actual delegates who will be sent to the National Convention.  Voters are only allowed to vote for delegates who correspond to the candidate (including “Uncommitted”) who they voted for in the Presidential Preference Poll.  Some candidates have incomplete slates of delegates; in the event a candidate is entitled to more delegates than he has on his slate, that slot will presumably be filled by an alternate delegate.  Such alternates are chosen by the Alabama Republican Executive Committee and must similarly pledge themselves to the candidate they are bound to support; they must also pay a $150 filing fee.

Withdrawal of Candidates / Brokered Convention
Delegates remain bound until the candidate releases them, unless two-thirds of a candidate’s Alabama delegates vote to release themselves.

Results (as of 3/2)

Rubio failed to meet the statewide threshold, so the At-Large delegates are apportioned 20 for Trump and 9 for Cruz.  Cruz fell about 325 votes short of an additional At-Large delegate.

Trump won all the Congressional Districts, as was the only candidate above threshold in CD 1 and CD 4, picking up 14 delegates.  Rubio was above threshold (and Cruz) in CD 5, picking up 1 delegate.  Cruz took second place and was above threshold in the remaining CDs, winning 4 delegates.

Trump	36
Cruz	13
Rubio	1

This count is in agreement with The Green Papers and FHQ.

In the case of Rubio, his 1 delegate is effectively released, as he can vote to release himself at any time.

Delegates

Trump (36)
[1] Jim Bonner
[2] Jim Carns
[3] Judy Carns
[4] Ed Henry
[5] Shaun McCutcheon (donated to Rubio in Jan. 2015)
[6] James Matthews
[7] Bob Baccus
[8] Perry O. Hooper
[9] Will Matthews
[10] Barry Moore
[11] Catherine Crosby Long
[12] James Henderson
[13] Chess Bedsole
[14] Dennis H. Beavers
[15] Chad Tucker
[16] Laura E. Payne
[17] W. Brent Woodall
[18] Frank H. Long, Jr.
[19] J. Holland (a presumably different Justin Holland donated to Cruz in Dec. 2015)
[20] Carmen Moore-Ziegler
[1-1] Frank Burt, Jr.
[1-2] Unfilled
[1-3] Trey Oliver
[2-1] Jeana Boggs
[2-2] Jeremy Adams
[3-1] Charles Whatley
[3-2] Kathleen Moore
[4-1] Bradley L. "Brad" Williams
[4-2] William R. Ingram
[4-3] Jesse David Ochocki
[5-1] Jim Peters
[5-2] Shannon Matthew Moore
[6-1] Joe Freeman
[6-2] Jef Freeman
[7-1] Teresa I. Beeker
[7-2] Chris Beeker III

Cruz (13)
[1] Tom Parker
[2] Chip Brown
[3] David Wilson
[4] Mo Brooks
[5] Chad Mathis
[6] Arnold Mooney
[7] Carla S. King
[8] David Pinkleton
[9] Sue Alexander
[2-1] Mike Holmes
[3-1] Tim Sprayberry
[6-1] Collin Luke
[7-1] Rich Wingo

Rubio (1)
[5-1] Dean Brandon

Note that this does not include the RNC members here; I would guess that Trump 19 & 20 and Cruz 9 are actually not delegates, but the AL GOP may have some leeway here.

Useful Links
AL GOP 2016 Presidential Preference Primary Resolution
The Green Papers: AL
Frontloading HQ: AL
Delegate Ballot Results
Delegate Candidates

[Erc]

The recent revisions to the Iowa caucus results gives a slight boost to Sanders, as a victory in Marion County is now more plausible.

This updates the table in the post above to...

p	Chance of Sanders Victory
50%	<0.1%
60%	0.6%
65%	2.0%
70%	5.1%
75%	11.9%
80%	22.8%
85%	38.7%
90%	58.2%
95%	76.2%
100%	89.2%

This increases Sanders' chances if he's already getting a vast majority of the O'Malley delegates.  I honestly think Clinton will win this delegate, but rethinking my priors here, I'm not more than 90% certain that she will, especially given the possibility for differential turnout at the County Conventions, etc.

I'm reversing my call on the 44th Iowa pledged delegate; it will stay in the Uncommitted column until March 12 at least.

[Erc]

Erc, do you have any news from the North Dakota GOP district caucuses?

Not really; this is the only article I've been able to find, and it doesn't mention the Presidential race at all.  Seems like more of the attention is on local politics, presidential preference may not be playing a huge role.

Some fun pictures on the ND GOP's twitter feed, though.

[Erc]

More Iowa Analysis

Black County

County: Sanders 222 - Clinton 196 - O'Malley 1 - Uncommitted 1
State: Sanders 36 - Clinton 32 - Unallocated 1

Clinton could pick up that last delegate if both the O'Malley and Uncommitted delegates agree to support her.

Presumably this is Black Hawk County

Indeed.  For text parsing reasons, I cut all two-word counties down to one word in my spreadsheet, and forgot to restore some of them.  At least I didn't report results from "Des County"

[Erc]

New Hampshire Delegate Outlook

Democrats

24 delegates are up for grabs: groups of 5 and 3 At Large, and 8 in each CD.

Assuming Sanders wins, he gets 5 out of the 8 At-Large delegates.

In each CD, it depends on the margin of victory.  If he wins 56.25% of the two-way vote in a CD, he wins 5 out of 8 delegates; otherwise he and Clinton split them evenly.

Republicans

20 delegates to allocate, with the threshold at 10%.

% Vote	Delegates
0-10%	0
10-12.5%	2
12.5-17.5%	3
17.5%-22.5%	4
22.5%-27.5%	5

Anyone winning more than 27.5% is likely to win the state, given the state of the field.  The winner not only gets his own share of the delegates given his vote share, but also wins any delegates left unallocated.  Essentially, he's treated as if he won the votes that went to the sub-10% candidates.

The delegate result will depend a lot on whether the massive field of candidates all breaks 10% or whether many of them are just under 10%.  In the former case, the winner (presumably Trump) does not get any appreciable bonus, whereas in the latter he may win half the delegates from the state.  This happened in 2012, where Romney won 60% of the delegation on a 39% vote share since both Santorum and Gingrich barely missed the threshold.

[Erc]

Are 20 or 23 delegates being allocated by the NH primary? If it is just 20, then what happens to the 3 RNC members? Are they simply free to support whomever they wish?

So, here's the situation as I see it.

New Hampshire state law provides the rules for the allocation of delegates (10% threshold, the rounding procedure, etc.).  They also provide for the explicit choosing of delegates after the primary (candidates choose which delegates they want from the list they filed earlier).

On the Democratic side, this law is in conflict with the national Democratic party rules for delegate allocation, and is overridden by them.

On the Republican side, they are not, so the rules are enjoining.  What does this mean in practice for the 3 automatic delegates?

The New Hampshire GOP Bylaws mention them, but really say nothing except that they are supposed to stay neutral during the Primary.

The 3 automatic delegates are indeed automatic, so the procedure of candidates selecting them from their list after the primary clearly doesn't apply here, though the binding might.

The national GOP rules seem to imply that the entire delegation should be bound.  This has been confirmed by an FHQ enquiry to the national GOP, but may still be open for interpretation.

Is there any good precedent here?  In 2008 and 2012, New Hampshire, with a January primary, was penalized and forfeited its automatic party delegates.  In 2000 and previous contests, these delegates didn't exist, so the only precedent we really have is the uncontested 2004 contest.  In that contest, it seems they were not allocated automatically to Bush, but nobody cared about the minutiae then of course.  Of course, the language for binding the entire delegation did not exist in 2004, so this isn't great precedent either.

TL;DR: My reading of New Hampshire State Law and the national GOP rules would seem to imply that all 23 delegates will be bound as a result of the primary.  

In the end, I'm likely to go with whatever the Secretary of State reports, unless the NH or national GOP says otherwise.

[Erc]

Update from FHQ:  They apparently had a chat with the NH GOP, who clarified that all 23 delegates are at stake tonight.  They will be allocated proportionally as one entire pool of delegates.  (How it's decided who gets which RNC member, I don't know).

[Erc]

New Hampshire Results

Democrats

I'd need to check the breakdown by CD to make absolutely sure, but it seems overwhelmingly likely that Sanders broke the 56.25% two-way vote barrier in both CDs.  The result therefore among pledged delegates is:

Sanders 15 - Clinton 9

Republicans

The percentages seem to have stabilized, so the delegate count seems pretty clear here.

Trump 11 - Kasich 4 - Cruz 3 - Bush 3 - Rubio 2

The decision to allocate the automatic delegates based on the results of the primary helped out Kasich, Cruz, and Bush.

[Erc]

Thanks for the sticky!

This should definitely be stickied btw.

Seconded.

Thirded.

Didn't Cruz win Iowa? How did he end up with one less delegate than Trump?

I transposed the Cruz and Trump columns after Trump's decisive NH victory, and forgot to also transpose the results in Iowa.  Fixed now.

[Erc]

So, is the breakdown of delegates Trump:Rubio 11:2 or 10:3? The race is very close for the last delegate. The way I've calculated it, and what you have in this thread, is 11:2. But most of the media is 10:3...

No matter how you slice it, Trump gets 11 and Rubio gets 2.  The media is just wrong on this one.  I'm guessing they rounded prematurely; an 11.0% result would give you 3 delegates, but a 10.6% result gives you 2.

[Erc]

So, is the breakdown of delegates Trump:Rubio 11:2 or 10:3? The race is very close for the last delegate. The way I've calculated it, and what you have in this thread, is 11:2. But most of the media is 10:3...

No matter how you slice it, Trump gets 11 and Rubio gets 2.  The media is just wrong on this one.  I'm guessing they rounded prematurely; an 11.0% result would give you 3 delegates, but a 10.6% result gives you 2.

They rounded on purpose, apparently this is the rule (despite making no sense): https://twitter.com/FHQ/status/697519581884239873

Here's the state law in question:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Note that it says proportion, not percentage in Paragraph I.

There's a reference to rounding percentages in Paragraph II, though, which struck me as odd.  But it's unclear whether Paragraph I refers to rounding a number of delegates or a percentage.

I'm sticking to my allocation, unless there's something from the Secretary of State that says otherwise.

[Erc]

Important going forward for the Automatic Delegates.  For states that don't specify a process for binding them, they are to be treated as At-Large delegates, according to a recent RNC memo.

[Erc]

Let's took at that Paragraph I again:

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So, reading this literally, it is saying that I am rounding "the proportion" to the nearest whole number.  What does that even mean?

I would say, and I think the common sense interpretation here is, that each candidate receives the same proportion of the delegation as his proportion of the total votes cast, with the number of delegates received rounded to the nearest whole number.

FHQ's and the media's interpretation appears to be that I round the "proportion of...the total votes cast" to the nearest whole percentage point.  That's a huge leap.  And since there aren't exactly 100 delegates, I would then have to round yet again, not something that is anywhere explicitly stated.

Of course, this is looking at Paragraph I in isolation.  Their interpretation seems to rest on the weird language in Paragraph II.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Why the mention of "any rounding to the nearest whole number"?  I would say that it's a bit odd, but is basically just a clarification that you need to get at least 10.00000% of the vote to receive delegates.  They would say, perhaps, that it implies that the percent of votes a candidate receives is rounded to the nearest whole number by Paragraph I.  I'd still say it's a leap, though.

I'm sticking with my count (which The Green Papers agrees with) unless the Secretary of State says otherwise.  We should know one way or the other within a couple weeks, as the SoS should be notifying the candidates how many delegates they are entitled to soon; 10 days after that the candidates respond with which particular individuals they want to represent them at Cleveland (from a list submitted to the SoS before the primary).


What's crazy is that if you went with the media rounding scheme here, Trump actually receives fewer delegates when there are 23 delegates at play as opposed to 20.

[Erc]

I agree, jimrtex, that that memo leaves something to be desired.  But I'm glad they provided clarification, because it was an open question, and the memo resolves the matter to my general satisfaction.

[Erc]

Republican Superdelegates

EDIT: This post is outdated; I now track these delegates here.

Given the recent memo from the RNC clarifying that the 3 automatic delegates from each state must be bound based on the statewide results, the potential for Republican "superdelegates" to make a difference on the first ballot is much diminished.

In fact, this ruling means that there are only Eighteen (18) delegates who attend by virtue of their position and are entirely free to vote their conscience on the first ballot: three from each state/territory that is holding no sort of public vote this year.  None of them have yet endorsed a candidate.

American Samoa
Utu Abe Malae
Amata Radewagen
Su'a Schuster

Colorado
Steve House
Lily Nuñez
George Leing

Guam
Mike Benito
Margaret Metcalfe
David Sablan

North Dakota
Kelly Armstrong
Sandy Boehler
Curly Haugland

Virgin Islands
John Canegata
Lilliana Belardo de O'Neal
Holland Redfield III

Wyoming
Matt Micheli
Marti Halverson
Greg Schaefer

There will also be other unbound delegates at the Republican National Convention, though they will need to be elected.  These include:

• American Samoa (6)
• Guam (6)
• Louisiana (5): votes for Rubio and Kasich were effectively allocated to an Uncommitted slate.
• Nevada (0-2): Ben Carson's delegates could be unbound at his option.
• New Hampshire (3): Jeb Bush's delegates here are now unbound.
• North Dakota (25)
• Oklahoma (3): votes for Kasich were effectively allocated to an Uncommitted slate.
• Pennsylvania (54): delegates elected on the primary ballot are unbound; no preference is listed on the delegate ballot.
• Virgin Islands (5-6): some Uncommitted delegates were directly elected here, though some are subject to a credentials fight.
• West Virginia (31): delegates elected on the primary ballot may be officially unbound; they list a commitment on the primary ballot.  FHQ believes they are bound by that commitment.

Uncommitted is also a valid option on many ballots, and could in principle receive delegates.  This is only really a likely possibility where delegates are directly elected, as in IL, CO, and WY.  So far, this has only happened in the Virgin Islands.

In total, that's 153 officially unbound delegates, or around 6.2% of the total.  Of course, the WV delegates will have expressed a clear preference.  There's also the 10 delegates still bound to minor candidates that don't seem to get released until after the first ballot.

[Erc]

SC primary is winner takes all, correct? So when trump wins SC he gets all 50 of the delegates?

I think its winner take all by Congressional district so if Trump were to have his support dispersed fairly evenly amongst the state he should do just fine delegate wise.

There's a pot of 29 At-Large that's Winner Take All, and 3 WTA per congressional distrrict (total of 21).  Barring a really close three-way race, one expects the winner to take at least 41 out of the 50; more if the result isn't at all close.

[Erc]

Even The Green Papers has folded and gone with the weird rounding rules.  With literally everyone saying the weird rounding rules are correct, I'm reluctantly forced to change my call and move a delegate from Trump to Rubio.

[Erc]

Arkansas (R) - March 1

Overview
40 Delegates (1.62% of total)
Open Primary
28 At-Large (Proportional, top 3; almost WTA if majority)
12 District (“Winner-Take-Most”)

Delegate Allocation

If a candidate wins a majority of the votes in a congressional district, they are awarded 3 delegates.  Otherwise, the winner is awarded 2 and the runner-up is awarded 1.  

Every candidate who earns at least 15% of the statewide vote is awarded 1 At-Large delegate.  If a candidate receives a majority of the statewide vote, they are awarded all the remaining At-Large delegates.  Otherwise, the remaining delegates are allocated proportionally among the top three finishers, rounding fractional delegates to the nearest whole number. All rounding error resolution is done in favor of those with the highest vote totals first, as in Alabama.

In the event a presidential candidate does not have enough filed delegate candidates (see next section), they are reallocated to the highest vote-getter in that jurisdiction who does.

Delegate Selection

Candidates for delegate must file at the State GOP headquarters between February 15 and February 29 and pay a $250 filing fee, and must pledge themselves to a candidate when they do so.  Each candidate for President is encouraged to provide the AR GOP with a list of their preferred delegate candidates; if such a list is provided by April 18, it will show up on the later ballots.  The District delegates are selected at Special District Conventions on April 30, while the At-Large Delegates are selected by the State Committee Meeting on May 14.  The delegates to the Special District Conventions are chosen at Special County Conventions in March; one can be a delegate to those conventions by filing in early November 2015.

Results (3/2)

Statewide, Trump and Cruz win 10 delegates each and Rubio wins 8.

In the Congressional Districts, Trump won CDs 1,3, and 4, picking up another 6 delegates.  Cruz placed 2nd in those districts and 1st in CD 2, picking up 5 delegates.  Rubio placed 2nd in CD 2, picking up 1 more delegate.  Results are not complete, but these margins seem secure.

Total: Trump 16, Cruz 15, Rubio 9.

FHQ disagrees with this count, giving Trump another delegate and taking 2 away from Cruz (and apparently not calling a last delegate).

Withdrawal of Candidates / Brokered Convention

All delegates are bound only for the first ballot, unless released by their candidate before that ballot.

Useful Links
AR GOP Delegate Rules
The Green Papers: AR
Frontloading HQ: AR

[Erc]

Colorado (R): March 1 - April 9

Overview
37 Delegates (1.50% of total)
Closed Caucus (non-binding)
13 At-Large
21 District
3 RNC Members

Delegate Selection and Allocation

The Colorado GOP has elected not to hold a Presidential Preference Poll at its caucuses this year.  If it had, delegates would have to be allocated and bound proportionally according to its results; this was avoided by eliminating the poll.  As a result, we will likely know next to nothing about the final delegate allocation from Colorado on the night of March 1.

Caucus-goers in 2917 precincts statewide will elect delegates to the County Assemblies and District Conventions.  By March 24/25, people wishing to run for delegate to the National Convention must file with the State GOP Chair.  On the filing form, delegates may choose to pledge themselves to a particular presidential candidate; this pledge is binding. They may also choose to remain unbound.  There are also strict eligibility rules for National Convention delegates.  In particular, they must have been a delegate at a County Assembly and at either a District Convention (for CD delegates) or the State Convention (for At-Large delegates).

The District Conventions are held (presumably) on April 8.  Each convention chooses its 3 delegates to the National Convention, as well as delegates to the State Convention.  The State Convention on April 9 chooses the 21 At-Large delegates.

At each stage of the process (caucuses, District Conventions and State Convention) voters may cast a number of votes equal to the number of delegates to be chosen by that caucus/convention.  The top delegate candidates are elected by plurality vote, so extensive winnowing is to be expected between stages.  Tactical voting and makeshift alliances may also prove very important at the later stages.

RNC Members

Steve House
Mike Kopp
Lilly Nuñez

Withdrawn Candidates / Brokered Convention

Any bound delegates are only bound for the first ballot; if a candidate releases his delegates or is not placed in nomination, his delegates are unbound.  

Useful Links
Colorado GOP Rules (older version)
Frontloading HQ: CO
The Green Papers: CO

[Erc]

Georgia (R): March 1

Overview
76 Delegates (3.07% of total)
Half-Open Primary
42 District (Winner-Take-Most; WTA if majority)
34 At-Large (Proportional, 20% threshold; WTA if majority)

Delegate Allocation

If a presidential candidate receives the majority of votes in a Congressional District, they are allocated 3 delegates; otherwise, the winner is allocated 2 delegates and the runner-up allocated 1.

Statewide, if a candidate receives a majority of the votes, they are awarded all 34 delegates.  Otherwise, delegates are allocated proportionally among all candidates receiving at least 20% of the vote.  The exact nature of how this is done is unclear, but it seems that they are allocated based on each candidate’s percentage of the total statewide vote, with all fractions rounded down.  The procedure is then followed again for the remaining unallocated delegates.  If after this there are still any left over, they are given to the winner.

The three RNC members are treated as At-Large delegates for all purposes; they are allocated to the statewide winner.  From my reading of the GA GOP rules, these are part of the above allocation (i.e. 34 delegates are awarded proportionally, and three of the winner’s allocated delegates happen to be RNC members).  Frontloading HQ and The Green Papers disagree with me, claiming that 31 delegates are awarded proportionally, and the 3 RNC members are separately given to the winner.  The appropriate section of the GA GOP rules is as follows:

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Delegate Selection

Delegates are selected at District Conventions on April 16 and the State Convention on June 3/4.  Delegates to these conventions are chosen at County Conventions on March 19, while delegates to those conventions are chosen at Precinct Mass Meetings held March 10-19.

Results (3/2)

The CD delegates break down as Trump 26 - Cruz 9 - Rubio 7.  Rubio's strength was much more concentrated; he won a couple CDs but placed third in a lot more, which hurt him in the delegate count.

The At-Large delegates depend on your interpretation of the rules (i.e. whether RNC members are allocated along with the At-Large delegates or not, and if not, whether fractional delegates are truncated or rounded to the nearest whole delegate).  My interpretation gives Trump 16 - Rubio 9 - Cruz 9.  The Green Papers gives (with a weird interpretation and outdated results) Trump 17 - Rubio 9 - Cruz 8.  Another plausible interpretation (apparently favored by FHQ) would give Trump 18 - Rubio 8 - Cruz 8.

Withdrawals / Brokered Convention

All delegates are bound on the first ballot, unless their candidate withdraws before the convention.

Useful Links
GA GOP Rules
Frontloading HQ: GA
The Green Papers: GA
Georgia State Code

[Erc]

Massachusetts (R): March 1

Overview
42 Delegates (1.70% of total)
Half-Open Primary
42 At-Large (Proportional, 5% threshold)

Delegate Allocation
42 Delegates are allocated proportionally among all candidates who receive at least 5% of the vote in the primary.  Each candidate receives the same proportion of delegates as their proportion of the vote among all candidates meeting the the threshold, with rounding done to the nearest whole number.  Any rounding errors are resolved by giving delegates to the winner or removing delegates from the last-place finisher, as necessary.

Delegate Selection
27 Delegates are selected at District Conventions on April 23, and 12 delegates are selected by the State Committee in early June.

Results (3/2)

Candidate	Percent	Delegates
Trump	49.3%	22
Kasich	18.0%	8
Rubio	17.8%	8
Cruz	9.6%	4

This is in agreement with FHQ and The Green Papers.


Candidate Withdrawal / Brokered Convention
Delegates are bound on the first ballot unless released by their candidate.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

It's not clear that this law actually applies to MA's delegates, the selection of which are not subject to the approval of a presidential candidate.  That said, it was considered binding in 2012, when the delegates were Ron Paul supporters despite a Romney landslide in the state; they were forced to vote for Romney at the convention.

Useful Links
The Green Papers: MA-R
Frontloading HQ: MA
MA G.L. c.53, §70I

[Erc]

Minnesota (R): March 1

Overview
38 Delegates (1.70% of total)
Open Caucus (Binding)
24 District (Proportional, 10% threshold)
14 At-Large (Proportional, 10% threshold)

Delegate Allocation

The 14 At-Large delegates are allocated proportionally to all candidates meeting a 10% threshold.  Each candidate receives the same proportion of delegates as their proportion of the vote among all candidates meeting the the threshold, with rounding done to the nearest whole number.  This starts with the winner and then proceeds down; if delegates are yet to be assigned at the end, round up the candidate closest to receiving an additional delegate.

The same allocation procedure occurs for the 3 delegates in each Congressional District, based on the vote in that district; this is quite likely just to give a delegate to each of the top three finishers in each district, unless any candidate has a majority of the threshold-clearing vote.

Delegate Selection

Delegates are chosen at District Conventions in late April / early May, and at the State Convention on May 20.  Delegates to these conventions are chosen at BPOU Conventions in March/April, while delegates to those conventions are chosen at the caucuses.

Results (3/2)

Based on their results of the statewide vote, Rubio wins 6 delegates, Cruz 5, and Trump 3.  In CDs 3, 4, and 5, Rubio won a majority of the threshold-clearing vote, winning 2 delegates to Cruz's 1.  In the other 5 CDs, Rubio, Cruz, and Trump each won 1 delegate.

Totals:  Rubio 17, Cruz 13, Trump 8.


Candidate Withdrawal / Brokered Convention
At-Large Delegates are bound on the first ballot, unless released by their candidate, or their candidate withdraws.  This is confirmed by the pledge signed by all delegate candidates.  The MN GOP says that Rubio's delegates are released if he "is not on the first ballot"; so it seems that this is what is meant by "withdrawal."

As a result, I am releasing Rubio's delegates, as he will not be on the first ballot barring changes in Rule 40.

Jeff Kolb raises an interesting point that the Delegate Selection Rules may be illegitimate; I sincerely doubt this is the case, but we'll see how this plays out down the line.

Useful Links
The Green Papers: MN-R
MN GOP Constitution
Frontloading HQ: MN
MN Delegate Allocation Rules

[Erc]

Milestone on the superdelegates front:

Today's additions (Alma Gonzalez from FL and some previously-missed Puerto Rico endorsements) have pushed Clinton to over 60% support from superdelegates.

[Erc]

Oklahoma (R): March 1

Overview
43 Delegates (1.74% of total)
Closed Primary
15 District (Proportional, 15% threshold; WTA if majority)
28 At-Large (Proportional, 15% threshold; WTA if majority)

Delegate Allocation

Three delegates are awarded from each of Oklahoma's five Congressional Districts.  If a candidate gets a majority of the vote in a CD (or is the only candidate to clear 15%), they receive all 3 delegates.  Otherwise, if three (or more) candidates place above 15% in a CD, the top three finishers each get one delegate.  If only two do, the winner gets two and the runner-up gets one.

If a candidate receives a majority of the statewide vote, they receive all 28 At-Large delegates.  Otherwise, the delegates are awarded proportionally among all candidates receiving at least 15% of the statewide vote.  The exact manner in which this is done is not clear.  The GOP rules imply that each candidate receives delegates proportional to the share of the overall vote, rounded to the nearest delegate, à la New Hampshire; however, this would generically leave a number of delegates unassigned due to candidates not meeting the threshold. The appropriate section from the GOP rules:

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FHQ has clarified that the delegates left over after this procedure are left Uncommitted.

Delegate Selection

Delegates are chosen at District Conventions on April 16 and the State Convention on May 13-14.  This includes, crucially, the three Uncommitted delegates from the results below.

Results (3/2)

The candidates split the CD delegates 5-5-5.

At-Large, Cruz won 10 delegates, Trump 8, Rubio 7, and Uncommitted 3.  

Totals: Cruz 15, Trump 13, Rubio 12.

The Green Papers does not believe that the below-threshold votes are allocated to Uncommitted, and parcels them out among the three candidates appropriately.

Candidate Withdrawal / Brokered Convention

Delegates are bound for all ballots until their candidate is "for any reason no longer a candidate."

Useful Links
The Green Papers: OK-R
Frontloading HQ: OK
OK GOP Rules
Oklahoma Statutes §26-20-104 G.

[Erc]

Tennessee (R): March 1

Overview
58 Delegates (2.35% of total)
Open Primary
27 District (Winner-Take-Most, 20% threshold)
31 At-Large (Proportional, 20% threshold)

Delegate Allocation

Three delegates are awarded from each of Tennessee's nine Congressional Districts.  If a candidate gets two-thirds of the vote in a CD (or is the only candidate to clear 20%), they receive all 3 delegates.  Otherwise, the first place finisher receives two delegates while the runner-up receives one.

If a candidate receives two-thirds of the statewide vote (or is the only candidate to clear 20%), they receive all 31 At-Large delegates.  Otherwise, they are allocated among all candidates clearing 20%, proportional to their vote share among the threshold-clearing candidates.  Delegates are given out starting with the statewide winner, with all fractional delegates rounded up.

Results (as of 3/7)

Trump 33 - Cruz 16 - Rubio 9

Delegate Selection

The Congressional District delegates and half of the At-Large delegates are directly elected on the ballot; they needed to obtain the consent of the candidate they are pledged to in order to appear on the ballot under their name. The other half of the At-Large delegates selected by the State GOP Executive Committee on April 2, with advice from the Presidential campaigns.  If a campaign should not have enough delegates on the ballot, the Executive Committee will choose the remaining delegates.

Delegates

Trump:
[1] Mae Beavers
[2] Doris B. Arnold
[3] Robert Duvall
[4] Chad Blackburn
[5] William H. Beavers
[6] Karen Bennett
[7] Julie Brockman
[8...15] Chosen April 2
[1-1] David "Kent" Harris
[1-2] Betty Jo Kern
[2-1] Tim Hutchison
[2-2] Sam Maynard
[3-1] M. David Riden
[3-2] Richard L. Snead
[4-1] Larry Sims
[4-2] Jeff Peach
[5-1] Connie Hunter
[5-2] Ron McDow
[6-1] Chris Hughes
[6-2] Jerry Wayne Beavers
[7-1] Larry W. Cooper
[7-2] James Kenneth Eaton
[8-1] Joseph S. Coury
[8-2] Nichole Bufalino
[9-1] Terry Allen Roland
[9-2] Charlotte Bergmann

Cruz
[1] Joe Carr
[2] Steve Gill
[3] Lee Douglas
[4] Deborah Deaver
[5] Sheila Butt
[6...10] Chosen April 2
[1-1] B. Claire Crouch
[4-1] Edward M. Phillips Jr.
[6-1] Laura M. Baigert
[7-1] Sharon P. Strange
[8-1] Mick Wright
[9-1] Lynn Moss

Rubio
[1] Victor Ashe
[2] Beth Campbell
[3] Randy Ellis
[4...6] Chosen April 2
[2-1] Michael Hensley
[3-1] Randy Fairbanks
[5-1] Luke Elliott

Candidate Withdrawal / Brokered Convention

Delegates are bound for at least two ballots.  Delegates for withdrawn candidates still get to attend the convention; it's not entirely clear that they are released in that eventuality, though I will assume they are.

Useful Links
The Green Papers: TN-R
Frontloading HQ: TN
TN GOP Rules
Unofficial Delegate Ballot Results
TN Code §§2-13-307(b)