The Delegate Fight: 2016

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Okay, but now Trump has 389 by my count

That's my mistake.  Fixed!

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Updated Delegate Map:



and Trump Tetris.



Red dotted line is what a majority of the delegates from the states that have already voted would be.

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TRUMP Tetris is grand. I'm going to guess that if he is going to get a majority of delegates, it will be California that puts him over the top.

Yeah, Trump clinching before June 7 seems difficult, barring highly consistent Trump landslides or a Cruz dropout.

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The Louisiana GOP has clarified the delegate count there; as we had been assuming, Trump, Cruz, and Rubio split the CD delegates except in CD 4, where a particularly poor showing by Rubio in a strong Cruz district meant Cruz won 2 to Trump's 1.

Final delegate counts out of Louisiana are then:

Trump 18 - Cruz 18 - Rubio 5 - Uncommitted 5

With Cruz likely to pick up the (non-binding) support of those Uncommitted delegates this Saturday, seems like Cruz may end up being the delegate winner out of Louisiana after all, despite his loss in the popular vote.

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FHQ today did a piece on all the various delegate discrepancies among various media sources and each other.  I'm going to present my take here, state-by-state.  I'm ignoring states where CBS is the only dissenter, as they're just generally terrible.

Arkansas: Only issue here is 2nd place in CD 3. CNN, The Green Papers, and I have called it for Cruz; FHQ and the AP have yet to make a call.

Georgia: A couple of issues here.  First, there's a question of who took second place in CDs 4 and 13; CNN, the Green Papers, and I have called them for Cruz, whereas the AP and FHQ still seem to have them too close to call.  Second, there's the question of how the RNC members are allocated.  This is honestly ambiguous in the rules; CNN and I appear to put them as part of the At-Large pool, whereas FHQ disagrees and gives them to Trump separately.  The Green Papers has its own weird system for the At-Large pool which seems to be just wrong.

Tennessee: Again, a CD results issue for CD 9.  The Green Papers, and I give Trump 2 and Cruz 1; FHQ and the AP leave it uncalled entirely.  CNN apparently gives Trump 2 and Rubio 1 here.  Until earlier today I agreed with CNN's count, due to a mistake in my reading of the rules for the At-Large delegates.

Texas: The issue here is CD 33.  The AP count has Rubio winning a majority here (and thus all 3 delegates), while the TX SoS results would indicate Cruz winning 2 to Trump's 1.  CNN, FHQ, The Green Papers and I all side with the SoS here; the AP apparently realizes something is up with their count and hasn't called those three delegates yet.  Honestly, this looks like an AP data entry error: compare AP and SoS returns.

So, the discrepancies are really the GA rules issue and CD breakdowns in AR CD 3, GA CD 4 & 13, TN CD 9, and TX CD 33.

Our resident CD vote tracker, Miles, has counts for AR and GA CDs; my delegate counts agree with his results.  TX 33 is likely an error on the part of the AP; TN 9 is in principle still open, though our resident Memphis experts may know the answer already.  A Cruz second place finish seems highly likely based on the overall result and the geographical distribution of Rubio's vote.

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If Rubio were to suspend his campaign...

What happens to his delegates?

Remain Bound Regardless

In Iowa, they would apparently remain bound to him on the first ballot, regardless.

Released Automatically

In New Hampshire, they would be released.

In Nevada, they would be released.  Alternatively, Rubio could choose to reallocate them, in which case 5 would go to Trump and 2 to Cruz.  Rubio's dropout would also mean that if Carson chose to reallocate his delegates, the one that would have gone to Rubio would go to Cruz instead.

In Oklahoma, they are released if he is "for any reason no longer a candidate."  I'm assuming this includes if he doesn't get placed into nomination at Cleveland, which would almost certainly be the case unless he decides to resurrect his campaign and Rule 40 is changed.

In Louisiana, his delegates are released automatically.

In Wyoming, it's unclear, but the Wyoming GOP Chair has said his 1 delegate would be released if he "isn't in the race by July."

Reallocated Automatically

In Alaska, if he is considered to have "dropped out," his delegates are reapportioned, 3 for Cruz to 2 for Trump.  What "dropped out" means is unclear, but the standard is probably "maintaining an active campaign," which he would not be doing if he suspended it.  Note that this would give Cruz a majority in Alaska, and thus another Rule 40 state.

Released If He "Withdraws"

In Georgia, his delegates become unpledged if he withdraws; suspending his campaign is presumably not enough to trigger that.

In Tennessee, they are released if he "withdraws."

In Hawaii, his 1 delegate is released if he candidate has "withdrawn."

In D.C., they are released if he "withdraws."

May Release Them

In Alabama, he has the option to release his 1 delegate.

In Arkansas, he may release his 9 delegates.

In Massachusetts, he may release his 8 delegates.

In Minnesota, he may release his At-Large delegates; it's unclear about his district delegates.

In Texas, he may release his 3 delegates.

In Kansas, he may release his 6 delegates.

In Kentucky, he may release his 7 delegates.

Unclear

In Virginia, they appear to be still bound to him, regardless.  FHQ thinks (from similar discussions re: Carson's delegates there) that they likely would be released.

In Puerto Rico, it's unclear.

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Louisiana Dem should be 37-14 Clinton, not 38-13.

Thanks for the catch!

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Texas: The issue here is CD 33.  The AP count has Rubio winning a majority here (and thus all 3 delegates), while the TX SoS results would indicate Cruz winning 2 to Trump's 1.  CNN, FHQ, The Green Papers and I all side with the SoS here; the AP apparently realizes something is up with their count and hasn't called those three delegates yet.  Honestly, this looks like an AP data entry error: compare AP and SoS returns.

On election night, Rubio had been credited with 12,085 votes from the Tarrant County portion of TX-33, which pushed Rubio over 50% in the district. I looked at the results, and saw that the early voting and election day counts were way out of whack, and that there were lots more votes cast in the presidential preference primary compared to the congressional nomination race (you aren't going to have a 50%+ undervote in a contested race).

Fortunately, Tarrant County had precinct results, and I was able to figure out the precincts in the congressional district, and calculate the presidential results, which showed that Rubio had received 1285 votes. I pointed this out to the Republican Party of Tarrant County, who forwarded it to the elections administrator for Tarrant County, who acknowledged the mistake, and also corrected the results reported to the SOS.

The AP may have got their number from the SOS and not checked for updates, or got them from Tarrant County on election night. I got confirmation of the correction early on Thursday morning.

Yeah, the congressional race vote was what tipped me off this was likely a typo.  Thanks for making sure of it, and for making sure democracy works!

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March 22 Democratic Primaries

On the fourth Tuesday in March (March 22), the DNC "regional cluster" rules come into effect.  These give sets of three or more neighboring states a 15% delegate bonus, to encourage such regional primaries without frontloading the calendar.  Arizona, Utah, and Idaho qualify as such a cluster, and get the delegate bonus.

Arizona (D)

Overview
85 Delegates (1.78% of total)
Closed Primary
50 District
16 At-Large
9 PLEO At-Large
10 Superdelegates

Details

16 At-Large and 9 PLEO At-Large delegates are awarded based on the statewide primary vote.  The CD delegates are distributed among the CDs as follows: 8 for CD 2; 6 for CDs 1,6,9; 5 for CDs 3,5,7,8; 4 for CD 4.

Superdelegates

Clinton (5): Rep. Ruben Gallego, Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick, Kate Gallego, Carolyn Warner, Luis Heredia

Sanders (2): Rep. Raúl Grijalva, Danica Oparnica

Uncommitted (3): Rep. Krysten Sinema, Chair Alexis Tameron, Vice Chair Bill Roe

Useful Links
The Green Papers: AZ
AZ Delegate Selection Plan

Idaho (D)

Overview
27 Delegates (0.57% of total)
Open Caucus
5 At-Large
3 PLEO At-Large
15 by CD
4 Superdelegates

Details

Caucuses are held in each county, with the usual 15% threshold and re-caucusing procedure.  The county caucuses elect delegates to the State Convention based on Presidential Preference.  The State Convention (June 18) elects the 5 At-Large and the 3 PLEO At-Large delegates based on the preferences of convention attendees.

The CD delegates, however, are bound based on the results at the county caucuses themselves: 8 in CD 1 and 7 in CD 2.  Ada County, which is split between CDs, will either have two caucuses or will appropriately split themselves at their own caucus.

Superdelegates

Clinton (1): Carolyn Boyce

Sanders (2): Pete Gertonson, Chair Bert Marley

Uncommitted (1): Vice Chair Van Beechler

Useful Links
The Green Papers: ID-D
ID Delegate Selection Plan

Utah (D)

Overview
37 Delegates (0.78% of total)
Open Caucus
7 At-Large
4 PLEO At-Large
22 by CD
4 Superdelegates

Details

7 At-Large and 4 PLEO At-Large delegates are allocated on the basis of the statewide caucus vote.  The CD delegates are allocated based on the caucus vote in each CD: 5 in CDs 1,3; 6 in CDs 2,4.

Superdelegates

Clinton (2): Vice Chair Breanne Miller, Patrice Arent

Sanders (2): Chair Peter Corroon, Wayne Holland

Useful Links
The Green Papers: UT-D
UT Delegate Selection Plan (DRAFT)

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March 8 Preliminary Results

Michigan: Trump 25 - Kasich 17 - Cruz 17
Mississippi: Trump 25 - Cruz 15

Trump just barely below the 50% WTA threshold in MS CDs 3 and 4.

In other news, TN GOP has certified Trump won CD 9, with Cruz in 2nd, confirming the count we had.

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So TRUMP has another state where he has over 50% of delegates?

Yep, this is his 6th Rule 40 state out of the 8 he would need to have his name placed into nomination.

In Idaho, Cruz wins a majority of delegates and gets his 4th Rule 40 state.

Idaho: Cruz 20 - Trump 12

Nominating Committee has some leeway in the rounding rules here, it could be Cruz 19 - Trump 13.

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Hawaii results appear to be:

Trump 10 - Cruz 7 - Rubio 2

Kasich is denied delegates due to Hawaii's rounding rules.  This Trump's 7th Rule 40 state; he will presumably win the last needed state on the 15th.

Rubio wins a grand total of 2 delegates on the night.

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MSNBC had on Ben Ginsberg (famous Republican consultant lawyer) and he said that the Rule 40 is based off the 2012 convention rules. He said that the number of states that you woul need a majority of the delegates in order to be on the first ballot will be determined by this years rules committee. He said it could be any number they wanted.

The impression I've gotten is that any rules change that would effect the balloting at this years convention would need to be approved by the convention as a whole.  In any other year, that might be a formality, but if it were to make a difference such a vote would be contested.

Your grand total for Cruz's delegates is correct, but in the state totals you have him earning just 10 in Mississippi, instead of 15

Thanks for the catch!

In other news, I had the rules in Hawaii wrong; the 3 RNC members are indeed allocated separately from the other At-Large delegates.  This switches a delegate from Rubio to Trump; Rubio now only won 1 delegate in last night's contests.

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Next contest up is the Virgin Islands GOP caucus, tomorrow (March 10); polls close at 5PM EST.

Apparently, some ex-Rand Paul guys are trying to use the Virgin Islands as their personal rotten borough, according to this Washington Examiner article.

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Do you know how the 3 different components split for the Democrats in MI?

At-Large: Sanders 15 - Clinton 13
PLEO At-Large: Sanders 9 - Clinton 8

Michigan has a large number of CDs with an odd number of delegates, which Sanders won the vast majority of, giving him a nice delegate haul despite the close result.  In particular, Sanders got a +1 delegate advantage from all odd-delegate CDs and split all even delegate CDs, except:

CD 1 (UP/northern LP): Sanders won big here, resulting in a 4-2 split.
CD 5 (Bay City/Saginaw/Flint): Clinton won here, giving her a 4-3 split.
CD 13 (Detroit area): Clinton won here, giving her a 5-4 split.
CD 14 (Detroit area): Clinton won big here, giving her a 6-3 split.

Total in the CDs: Sanders 45 - Clinton 40.

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Atlas' numbers suggest that the at-large tally should split 14-14, and CD13 6-3. Do you have different ones, or is the formula different than what I assumed?

You're absolutely right with the At-Large tally, and I've changed the main page numbers accordingly.

I don't have good numbers for CD 13; I'm relying off of the Green Papers' count, which is quite incomplete.

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Dave's Atlas has it as 64.76% Hillary vs. 33.90% Bernie. That rounds to 5.91 delegates for her.

I'll go with that, then.  I assume the vote total is higher than 46k?

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Do we know for sure how MS delegates break down, BTW?

CD breakdowns are still tentative.  On the Republican side, it seems that Trump only hit the 50% WTA threshold in 1 CD.  On the Democratic side, Sanders only fell below the 15% viability threshold in 2 CDs.

This could potentially change as better CD breakdowns come in.  The main uncertainties are in CDs 2 and 3, which split Hinds and Madison counties between them.

On the GOP side in CD 3, where Trump is at 49.1% of the vote with 84% of precincts reporting.  Trump underperformed in Hinds and Madison relative to his statewide average, so I'm pretty confident in my call there.  In CD 2, Trump is at 54% of the vote with 76% reporting.  Here, it's going to come down to the precincts, but I am going to switch my call here and project that Trump comes down to below a majority here and loses a delegate to Cruz.

On the Dem side, Sanders is below threshold in both CDs (11.4% and 13.9%, respectively).  Sanders is pulling above 15% in both Hinds and Madison, but only just (15.3% and 16.1%); it doesn't seem like it's going to be enough to pull him above threshold.

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Well, crap.

How many delegates are awarded in each CD?

3 per CD on the GOP side.  On the Democratic side, it varies based on Democratic strength in the district (9 in CD 2, 5 in CD 3).  If Sanders reaches viability in a district, he'd only pick up 1 delegate.

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If anyone can find results by Precinct in Mississippi (Hinds and Madison counties, specifically), I would be much obliged.

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What happens with Carson's delegates when he endorses TRUMP? Do they go to TRUMP?

Nope. Candidates do not have control over their delegates in that fashion.

At the moment, it seems that his 6 delegates in Iowa and Virginia will be bound to him on the first ballot (Virginia is far less certain than Iowa).

In Nevada, he has two delegates, which he can choose to release entirely, or reallocate them 1 to Trump and 1 to Rubio.

None of these delegates are actually chosen by the Carson camp, so Carson will presumably have very little influence over any delegates he releases.

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Virgin Islands Results



via Phil Kerpen and Decision Desk.

John Yob, Erica Yob and Lindsey Eilon are part of the Yobs' rotten borough slate, and their eligibility to delegates may be contested.

Gwendolyn Brady, Warren Cole, and George Logan are well established in the Virgin Islands, and will certainly not have their credentials contested.  Cole and Brady were Uncommitted delegates to the RNC in 2012, as well; they eventually both supported Romney.  Cole donated to Fred Thompson in 2008.

If the Yobs are thrown out, the top three Alternates would be seated instead; Rubio would gain a delegate here.

Regardless, a disappointment for the Cruz camp here; the Cruz effort was led by the same folks who spearheaded the Paul effort here in 2012.

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I have a two part question about states where a candidate has the option to release his delegates to be reallocated among the other candidates.

a) If the candidate decides not to release his delegates, do they remain bound to him on the first ballot (understanding of course that rules may vary on this from state to state)?

b) If the candidate does release his delegates and they are reallocated, are the delegates then bound to their reallocated candidate on the first ballot?

There are only three states that allow for automatic reallocation as far as I recall, so let's go through them on a case-by-case basis:

South Carolina: If the candidate (in this case Donald Trump) is not placed in nomination at the convention, his delegates are instead bound to the 2nd place winner (Marco Rubio statewide, and Rubio or Cruz depending on the CD), or 3rd place if the 2nd place winner has also dropped out.  Regardless, the binding is only valid on the first ballot.

Nevada: Candidates may, before the State Convention in May, choose to keep, release, or reallocate their delegates based on the results of the caucus vote.  (The default is release).  If they are released, they are free to vote their conscience.  If they are reallocated, they are bound to their new candidates on the first ballot.

Alaska: If a candidate "drops out" (I think this includes suspending their campaign), all of Alaska's delegates are reallocated as if that candidate had received 0 votes in the caucus.  This binding  holds for the first ballot, and also for the second if the new candidate does not place last on the first ballot.

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March 12 Contests

Clinton team reports a Clinton win in the Northern Marianas, with a 61% vote share, good enough for a 4-2 delegate split.

Also today are the Iowa County Conventions, where Sanders will be trying to court the support of the few O'Malley delegates to pull off a statewide win.  Counties to keep an eye on are listed here.

On the GOP side, Cruz picks up one officially unpledged delegate in Guam.  Some were reporting 4 Cruz - 2 Trump, but that may just be a rumor.

Also today is the DC Caucus, as well as the Louisiana State Convention, which will pick Louisiana's delegates (including the 5 Uncommitted ones).

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At long last, the mystery of the final Iowa delegate will be settled.

Hopefully! Tracking down some of these results may be problematic.