The Delegate Fight: 2016

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SC-D Delegate Targets
Regardless, tonight is the night Clinton takes the pledged delegate lead, permanently.

I wouldn't be so hasty to say "permanently". She's obviously expected to do better in the more conservative Southern states, many of which are at stake on Super Tuesday. After that, however, the clear edge goes to Sanders. They're basically tied in the national polls. It's a guessing game as to how discouraged Sanders supporters will be after Tuesday. Hopefully not much.

Sorry, I should refrain from the editorializing in this thread.

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New York (R): April 19

Overview
95 Delegates (3.84% of total)
Closed Primary
14 At-Large (Proportional, 20% threshold; WTA if majority)
81 District (Winner-Takes-Most; WTA if Majority)

Delegate Allocation

If a candidate receives a majority of the statewide vote, they receive all 14 at-large delegates.  Otherwise, the delegates are allocated proportional to each candidate's share of the vote among all candidates meeting a threshold of 20%.  Round all fractions to the nearest number; any rounding errors are resolved by giving delegates to the winner or taking them away from the lowest-placed candidate.

In each of New York's 27 congressional districts, if a candidate receives a majority or is the only candidate to clear 20%, they receive all three delegates.  Otherwise, the winner receives 2 and the runner-up receives 1.

Delegate Selection

11 At-Large delegates are chosen by the state committee on May 18; CD delegates are chosen by each CD's subset of the state committee.

Candidate Withdrawal / Contested Convention

Delegates are bound on the first ballot, unless released.

Useful Links
The Green Papers: NY-R
FHQ: NY

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Connecticut (R): April 26

Overview
28 Delegates (1.13% of total)
Closed Primary
13 At-Large (Proportional, 20% threshold; WTA if majority)
15 District (WTA; WTA statewide if majority)

Delegate Allocation

If a candidate receives a majority of the vote, they receive all 28 delegates.  Otherwise, the 13 At-Large delegates are allocated among the candidates proportional to their share of the vote among all candidates meeting a 20% threshold.  Fractions are rounded to the nearest whole number; I believe rounding errors are resolved by awarding delegates to the winner or taking them away from the loser, as appropriate.

If no candidate receives a majority statewide, the winner of each of Connecticut's 5 CDs will receive 3 delegates each.

Delegate Selection

Presidential candidates submit slates of delegates, which are approved by the State Committee.

Candidate Withdrawal / Contested Convention

Delegates are bound on the first ballot, unless released.

Useful Links
The Green Papers: CT-R
CT GOP Bylaws
FHQ: CT

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Delaware (R): April 26

Overview
16 Delegates (0.65% of total)
Closed Primary
16 At-Large (WTA)

Delegate Allocation

The winner of the primary receives all 16 delegates.

Delegate Selection

The State Convention (April 29-30) chooses the delegates.

Candidate Withdrawal / Contested Convention

Delegates are bound on the first ballot, unless the candidate dies, withdraws, or releases them.

Useful Links
The Green Papers: DE-R
DE GOP Rules
FHQ: DE

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Maryland (R): April 26

Overview
38 Delegates (1.54% of total)
Closed Primary
14 At-Large (WTA)
24 District (WTA)

Delegate Allocation

The winner of the primary receives all 14 At-Large delegates.  The winner in each of Maryland's 8 CDs receives 3 delegates per CD.

Delegate Selection

The district delegates are directly elected on the ballot; each voter may vote for up to three delegates and the top three are elected.  Each delegate's presidential preference is not listed on the ballot.  11 At-Large delegates are chosen by the GOP State Central Committee on May 14.

Note that Kasich only has 16 delegate candidates, short of a full slate of 24.

Candidate Withdrawal / Contested Convention

Delegates are bound on the first two ballots, unless their candidate releases them or receives less than 35% of the vote on the first ballot.

Useful Links
The Green Papers: MD-R
MD Delegate Selection Process
FHQ: MD

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Pennsylvania (R): April 26

Overview
71 Delegates (1.54% of total)
Closed Primary
17 At-Large (WTA)
54 District (directly elected; unbound)

Delegate Allocation and Selection

The winner of the primary receives all 17 At-Large delegates.  14 of them are chosen by the Republican State Committee meeting on May 21.

The three delegates in each CD are directly elected on the ballot.  No presidential preference is listed on the ballot, and they will be completely unbound delegates going into Cleveland.

Candidate Withdrawal / Contested Convention

The At-Large delegates are bound on the first ballot, unless the candidate withdraws, suspends his campaign, or releases them.

Useful Links
The Green Papers: PA-R
List of Delegate Candidates

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Rhode Island (R): April 26

Overview
19 Delegates (0.77% of total)
Half-Open Primary
13 At-Large (Proportional, 10% threshold)
6 District (Proportional, 10% threshold)

Delegate Allocation

In each of Rhode Island's 2 Congressional Districts, delegates are allocated proportionally among all candidates receiving at least 10% of the vote.  Should a candidate receive 67% of the vote, they will receive at least 2 delegates.  Otherwise, if at least three candidates receive at least 10% of the vote, the top three candidates receive 1 delegate each.

The 13 At-Large delegates are allocated proportionally among all candidates meeting a 10% threshold, with fractional delegates rounded to the nearest whole number. Both in districts and statewide, exact rounding questions will be clarified by the Nominating Committee of the State Central Committee.

Delegate Selection

Delegates are elected directly on the ballot; presidential preference is listed on the ballot. The presidential campaign had to approve the delegate for them to appear under the presidential candidate's name on the ballot.

Candidate Withdrawal / Contested Convention

The At-Large delegates are bound on the first ballot, unless the candidate releases them.

Useful Links
The Green Papers: RI-R
RI Delegate Selection Plan

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South Carolina Results

Clinton on track to win with at least a 40-13 result in delegates here.  One main uncertainty here is CD 6, where Sanders is flirting with the viability threshold, allowing Clinton to pick up up to two more delegates.

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The Green Papers has CD breakdowns.

At present, Clinton is at 63.7% and 68.8% in CDs 1 and 2, winning 3/5 delegates in each.  If she breaks 70% in CD 2, she wins another delegate.

In Jim Clyburn's CD 6, Sanders is at 15.06% of the vote, winning 1 out of the 8 delegates.  If he drops below 15%, he loses viability and that last delegate.

Current breakdown is 39-14 for Clinton.

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Indiana (R): May 3

Overview
57 Delegates (2.31% of total)
Open Primary
30 At-Large (WTA)
27 District (WTA)

Delegate Allocation

The winner of the primary wins all 30 At-Large delegates.

The winner in each of Indiana's 9 CDs wins the 3 delegates in each.

Delegate Selection

The delegates are chosen at CD caucuses and by the State Committee in April (before the primary).

Candidate Withdrawal / Contested Convention

The delegates are bound on the first ballot unless their candidate is not placed into nomination at the National Convention.

Useful Links
The Green Papers: IN-R

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Nebraska (R): May 10

Overview
36 Delegates (1.46% of total)
Closed Primary
36 At-Large (WTA)

Delegate Allocation

The winner of the primary wins all 36 delegates.

Delegate Selection

The delegates are chosen at the State Convention on May 14.

Candidate Withdrawal / Contested Convention

The delegates are bound on the first two ballots, unless their candidate receives less than 35% on the first ballot.

Useful Links
The Green Papers: NE-R

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West Virginia (R): May 10

Overview
34 Delegates (1.38% of total)
Half-Open Primary
22 At-Large (directly elected)
9 District (directly elected)
3 RNC Members (WTA)

Delegate Allocation and Selection

The winner of the primary wins the 3 RNC members' bound votes. 

All other delegates are directly elected on the ballot.  In each Congressional District, the top three vote-winners become delegates.  Statewide, the top vote-winner becomes a delegate, and the top seven vote-winners in each CD (no more than two from each county) are elected.

Presidential preference is listed on the ballot alongside each delegate's name, though it does not seem that the Presidential candidates have the ability to vet these delegates.

Candidate Withdrawal / Contested Convention

It is unclear whether the directly elected delegates are bound; The Green Papers suggests that they are, and the ballot will say that the delegate candidate is "Committed" to a particular Presidential candidate (or Uncommitted).  The national GOP process book uses the language that delegate candidates "may specify intention to be committed to a candidate"; this suggests that they might not be bound. If delegates are bound, it is unclear what circumstances would cause them to become unbound.

Useful Links
The Green Papers: WV-R
Running for Office in WV: 2016
Filed Delegate Candidates (I haven't checked to see if every candidate has a full delegate slate)
Delegate Candidate Filing Form
WV State Code

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Oregon (R): May 17

Overview
28 Delegates (1.13% of total)
Closed Primary
28 At-Large (Proportional, 3.57% threshold)

Delegate Allocation

Delegates are allocated proportionally, with a threshold of one-twenty-eighth (3.57%) of the vote.  It is unclear whether delegates are awarded proportionally to the total vote, or just to the threshold-meeting vote.  Delegates are rounded to the nearest whole number, with rounding errors compensated by giving (taking) a delegate to the candidate closest to (furthest from) receiving an additional delegate.

Delegate Selection

Delegates are chosen at the State Convention on June 4.

Candidate Withdrawal / Contested Convention

Delegates are bound on the first two ballots, unless the candidate releases them or falls below 35% of the vote on the first ballot.

Useful Links
The Green Papers: OR-R

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Washington (R): May 24

Overview
44 Delegates (1.78% of total)
Closed Primary
14 At-Large (Proportional, 20% threshold)
30 District (Proportional, 20% threshold)

Delegate Allocation

In each of the 10 CDs, if a candidate receives a majority or is the only candidate to receive 20% of the vote, they receive all 3 delegates.  Otherwise, if only two candidates receive 20% of the vote, the winner gets 2 and the runner-up gets one.  Otherwise, the top three candidates each get 1 delegate.

Statewide, the delegates are awarded proportional to each candidates' share of the vote in the primary, with a 20% threshold.  Rounding details are unknown.

Delegate Selection

Delegates are chosen at the State Convention on May 21 (before the primary).

Candidate Withdrawal / Contested Convention

Delegates are bound only on the first ballot.  There does not appear to be any provision for a candidate to release his delegates.

Useful Links
The Green Papers: WA-R
Washington GOP Delegate Rules

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California (R): June 7

Overview
172 Delegates (6.96% of total)
Closed Primary
13 At-Large (WTA)
159 District (WTA)

Delegate Allocation

The statewide winner receives all 13 At-Large delegates.

The winner in each of the 53 CDs wins 3 delegates each.

Delegate Selection

The candidates choose their delegates.

Candidate Withdrawal / Contested Convention

Delegates are bound on the first two ballots, unless the candidate releases them or receives less than 10% of the votes on the first ballot.

Useful Links
The Green Papers: CA-R

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Montana (R): June 7

Overview
27 Delegates (1.09% of total)
Closed Primary
27 At-Large (WTA)

Delegate Allocation

The statewide winner receives all 27 delegates.

Delegate Selection

Delegates are chosen at the State Convention on May 14 (before the primary).

Candidate Withdrawal / Contested Convention

Delegates are bound on the first ballot, unless the candidate is not placed into nomination.

Useful Links
The Green Papers: MT-R

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New Jersey (R): June 7

Overview
51 Delegates (2.06% of total)
Half-Open Primary
51 At-Large (WTA)

Delegate Allocation

The statewide winner receives all 51 delegates.

Delegate Selection

Delegates are elected as a slate on the ballot; the slate was chosen by the candidate.

Candidate Withdrawal / Contested Convention

Delegates are bound on the first ballot, unless the candidate "declines to participate ... or makes known publicly that he/she no longer seeks the nomination."

Useful Links
The Green Papers: NJ-R

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New Mexico (R): June 7

Overview
24 Delegates (0.97% of total)
Closed Primary
24 At-Large (Proportional, 15% threshold)

Delegate Allocation

All 24 delegates are allocated proportionally based on the results of the primary, with a 15% threshold.  Rounding rules are unclear. The relevant New Mexico statute is:

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Delegate Selection

Delegates are chosen at the State Convention on May 21 (before the primary).

Candidate Withdrawal / Contested Convention

Delegates are bound on the first ballot, unless the candidate dies or pens a "written unconditional release" of his delegates.

Useful Links
The Green Papers: NM-R

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South Dakota (R): June 7

Overview
29 Delegates (1.17% of total)
Closed Primary
29 At-Large (WTA)

Delegate Allocation

All 29 delegates are awarded to the winner of the primary.

Delegate Selection

Delegates are chosen at the State Convention on March 19 (before the primary).

Candidate Withdrawal / Contested Convention

Delegates are bound on the first ballot, unless the candidate withdraws, suspends his campaign, or does not have his name placed in nomination.

Useful Links
The Green Papers: SD-R

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Maine (D): March 6

Overview
30 Delegates (0.63% of total)
Closed Caucus
5 At-Large
3 PLEO At-Large
17 District
5 Superdelegates

Details

Maine runs a caucus, similar to Iowa's.  Caucuses in each municipality elect delegates to the State Convention (May 6-7).  It is this State Convention which elects Maine's 5 At-Large, 3 PLEO At-Large, and 17 District (10 in CD 1; 7 in CD2) delegates.  Allocation is done via the usual Democratic formulae based on the number of delegates at the State Convention supporting each candidate.

Superdelegates

Clinton (3): Rep. Chellie Pingree, Vice Chair Peggy Schaffer, Maggie Allen

Sanders (1): Troy Jackson

Uncommitted (1): Chair Phil Bartlett

Useful Links
The Green Papers: ME-D
Maine Delegate Selection Plan

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March 8 Democratic Primaries

Democrats Abroad (D): March 1 - 8

Overview
17 Delegates (0.36% of total)
Open Primary
9 Regional
3 At-Large
1 PLEO At-Large
4 Superdelegates (8 half-votes)

The Global Primary

Any US Nationals who consider themselves Democrats, reside outside the United States and do not intend to participate in any other primary/caucus may participate in the Democrats Abroad Global Primary.  One can vote in person in many locations around the world from March 1 - March 8; the last physical polling station closes at 8PM EST on March 8 in Pelham, Ontario.  Alternatively, members of Democrats Abroad can vote by mail, fax, or email, starting on January 11.  Emailed or faxed ballots must be received by 6PM EST on March 8; mailed ballots must be received, at the absolute latest, at 7PM EST on March 13.

Details

3 At-Large and 1 PLEO At-Large delegates are awarded based on the global vote.  9 Regional delegates are also awarded based on the vote in each region, with the number of delegates each region receives proportional to the number of votes cast in each region.  The three regions are: Americas, Asia-Pacific, and Europe-Middle East-Africa.

Results

Sanders 9 - Clinton 4

The math on the Democrats Abroad website is a bit wonky, but the totals are correct (their totals give Clinton gets one fewer At-Large but one more in Asia-Pacific),

Superdelegates

Clinton (2): Stanley Grossman, Caitlin Kraft-Buchman, Bob Bragar, Sandra Loridans

Sanders (1): Gary Suwannarat, Vice Chair Ken Sherman

Uncommitted (1): Chair Katie Solon, John Eastwood

The eight superdelegates from Democrats Abroad have a half-vote each; they are the only fractional delegates at the convention.

Useful Links
The Green Papers: DA
Global Presidential Primary
Delegate Selection Plan

Michigan (D)

Overview
147 Delegates (3.08% of total)
Open Primary
28 At-Large
17 PLEO At-Large
85 by CD
17 Superdelegates

Details

Groups of 28 and 17 delegates are allocated based on the statewide caucus vote.  The CD delegates are distributed among the CDs as follows: 9 for CDs 13,14; 7 for CDs 5,12; 6 for CDs 1,9,11; 5 for CDs 2,3,4,6,7,8,10.

Superdelegates

Clinton (10): Sen. Debbie Stabenow, Sen. Gary Peters, Rep. John Conyers, Rep. Sander Levin, Rep. Debbie Dingell, Rep. Dan Kildee, Rep. Brenda Lawrence, Jill Alper, Dennis Archer, Barry Goodman

Uncommitted (7): Steven Cook, Mary Fleming, Norwood Jewel, Daryl Newman, Virgie Rollins (ex-Biden), Chair Brandon Dillon, Vice Chair Nancy Quarles

The Green Papers: MI-D

Mississippi (D)

Overview
41 Delegates (0.86% of total)
Open Primary
8 At-Large
5 PLEO At-Large
23 by CD
5 Superdelegates

Details

Groups of 8 and 5 delegates are allocated based on the statewide caucus vote.  The CD delegates are distributed among the CDs as follows: 9 for CD 2; 5 for CDs 1,3; 4 for CD 4.

Superdelegates

Clinton (3): Rep. Bennie Thompson, Chair Rickey Cole, Vice Chair Vallena Greer

Sanders (2): Keelan Sanders, Johnnie Patton

The Green Papers: MS-D

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The latest batch of states finishes up all the Republican states.  I'll continue releasing Democratic states (roughly 10 days ahead of time) as long as Sanders is in the race and Clinton does not have a majority of the delegates.  (I would bet this happens no later than May 17, and quite possibly earlier).

Today is the last of North Dakota's Legislative District Conventions.  It takes place from 3-5:30 PM CST in Bottineau, ND.  As always, there's been no concrete reports out of these conventions, so we'll have no idea who is doing well in North Dakota until the State Convention on April 2.

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On the unbound delegates front....

FHQ clarified via Twitter that the RNC will consider the directly elected IL delegates as bound to the candidate they are listed as supporting on the ballot.  The same, he assumes, will hold true for WV.

This knocks out a substantial fraction of the officially unbound delegates we were considering...not that we would truly expect shenanigans on that front.

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Oklahoma Rules

FHQ has clarified one of the open questions for tonight's delegate allocation: the exact method used to allocate delegates in Oklahoma.

The delegates are allocated based on the share of the total vote, not on the share of the threshold-meeting vote.  What was unclear was what would happen with any delegates left over after this procedure (and generically there would be some, given Kasich and Carson's presence in the race).  FHQ has verified that they will be left Uncommitted.  Essentially, any vote for a candidate failing to meet the 15% threshold is a vote for Uncommitted; those delegates will be chosen at the State Convention on May 13/14 and are free to vote their conscience in Cleveland.

New Hampshire, cont.

In other news, the New Hampshire delegate math has attracted some media attention, with this piece in The New York Times talking about it.  The New York Times takes a surprisingly hard stance on this one, saying explicitly that the GOP screwed up the math on this one, and that Trump should have 10 delegates to Rubio's 3.

As we've discussed in this thread multiple times, the situation is not that clear cut.  The "double-rounding" procedure discussed is nowhere explicitly spelled out in New Hampshire State Law and is, in my view, a reach.  That said, the New York Times does interestingly say that the Secretary of State (who normally would have the final say on these things) does favor the double-rounding interpretation, as confirmed by the AP and other sources before the primary.  Now, in this case, the Secretary of State may not have the final say due to the automatic delegates, which he doesn't get to certify.  In any event, this is something to keep an eye on.  As you know, I'm strongly in Trump's camp on this question, and my count will remain Trump 11 - Rubio 2 unless the NH GOP and the NH SoS both say otherwise.  If it comes down to it, Rubio may want to challenge this in the courts or before the Credentials Committee, but I think he'll lose.

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Really really preliminary delegate count (including a complete guess in AK and many CDs nationwide);

Trump 267
Cruz 209
Rubio 92
Kasich 21
Carson 3
Uncommitted 3

Trump does slightly better (25-odd delegates) than projected.  Cruz did a lot better than projected, and Rubio simply had an abysmal night.